Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by admin » Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:24 pm

here is an opinion piece that does a fairly good job of summarizing the laundry list of headwinds coming for the United States economy, that could push it in to depression:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-c ... 2020-06-26

I would be hard pressed to come-up with a list even a fraction as long that would save it from a depression.

The U.S. economy is just a canary in the global economic coal mine.

In short, a V-shaped recovery is a pipe dream any time soon. even if the virus "magically disappeared" tomorrow, there is no "magical" economic recovery tomorrow, next month, or even next year. This is global damage that will take years to repair.
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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by admin » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:16 am

the clock is ticking down on the American cash cliff. looks like about 30 to 60 days, and someone better come up with a plan.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN24014U

but, it is election year and everyone in Washington seems intent on digging in their heels.

It is also not just individuals, states and local cities are facing a cash cliff too. Many were not in the best of financial conditions before the pandemic.
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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by nikotromus » Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:44 am

admin wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:16 am
It is also not just individuals, states and local cities are facing a cash cliff too. Many were not in the best of financial conditions before the pandemic.
Not to mention the fake money debt mountain which the whole world resides under. I couldn't think of a more perfect, blameless and apparently believable event to the masses than Cooties to tie it all up in a big bow and reset this broken down 1975 Plymouth Duster.

Can't you just envision president Ding Dong right now behind a podium saying something like: "We had the greatest economy the world had ever seen folks, we really did. It was powerful enough to face down Cooties part 1 and get right back up from that sucker punch. You all saw those stock market numbers right? However, the second wave proved to be too much of a burden. Who could have seen that coming?"

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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by admin » Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:07 pm

The one I am blown away is Trump's ICE declaration that foriegn students in the United States will have to leave or face deportation if their school goes online. That is just straightforward racism for trump to play to his anti-education red neck base, and at the same time force schools to open-up with in person classes or loose those students.

over a million students are affected. I actually think it is more.

For many of these students it is an all in bet for them and their families to go to school in the united states. many are on third party scholarships. They can not go back, even when the crisis is over.

I got two friends that were planning to send their kids next year to the United States to school. who wants to gamble several hundred thousand dollars and years on the possibility they 'might' be able to finish their program.

even for the universities, the foriegn students pay higher tuition rates, subsidies the schools.

That is all beyond the issue of the benfits that the united states gains by having so many foriegners study there. That one is pretty well documented. everything from the raft of CEOs running / starting American companies, to foriegn leaders that went to school in the U.S. (e.g. pinera, etc).

The u.s. can not recoup a generation of talent lost to this stupidity, not to mention global influence.
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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by admin » Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:40 pm

the head of homeland security just admitted in an interview they are doing this to force schools to open.

and claimed it was because of visa fraud.

$41 billion dollars....
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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by admin » Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:33 pm

well, seems harvard and some other schools are trying to get a restraining order against ICE.
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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by admin » Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:46 pm

so, here is my short-term guestimate of what is coming down the pipe.

Trump is trying to force open schools this fall. he has about 30 days. everything from cutting off federal funding to lowering the CDC guidelines.

federal unemployment subsidies run out about the same time.

no schools, no buisness reopening, no jobs. In many communities the schools are some of the biggest employers.

parents and communities are going to revolt.

I also highly suspect this all turns in to a smoldering pile of law suits across the United States, as there is a whole slew of long standing anti-descimination laws related to health, safty, disability, and family status that they will violate if they try to open. Trump does not get to ignore those, and has no control over them. for every federal law, there is probably 50 state ones or more. which defending all those lawsuits will just put more strain on the school, state, and city finances. unions will join in, public workers of all kinds, etc. strikes and protests are completely possible, along with big losses for school boards, etc at election time that try to open.

well, that all makes the stock market panic, right in the middle of the traditional August- September-october market crash season, and man this year it sure has a lot to crash over.

in the next 30 days the market is finally going to get some cpr on just how bad a shape companies really are in, as so far most companies have simply withdrawn their guidance. quarterly reports will be out.

which by then is November election season.

oh, almost forgot. all while the pandemic rages on, pushing OVER 100,000 new cases today right smack in the middle of campaigning and voting; just accelerating the virus more while the flue season is in full force.

well... think I will wait for that next vacation in the United States for another 8 years.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
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From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

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