The Day After

Anything at all (keep it clean) goes here that does not fit in to any of the other forums.

Moderator: eeuunikkeiexpat

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 21547
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

The Day After

Post by admin » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:54 am

What comes after? How does the world change after?

I seen various conversations slipping in to speculation about this subject, and thought a thread on it was worth a go.

I also thought that was an appropriately creepy title, for a creepy subject. For those that do not get the reference, that was a made for TV movie about a thermal nuclear war that devastates the united states. It freaked out the whole population. Basically it was the greatest piece of cold war political propaganda ever pulled off.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_After

so, how does the world change?
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 21547
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The Day After

Post by admin » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:59 am

I was watching a WWl documentary yesterday.

War documentaries help me take my mind off of whatever little (or big) crisis I am dealing with, to see an even worse crisis that humans had to deal with and (some) survived. It provides a perverse sort of uplifting, 'guess this could be worse, they were eating dead bodies out of the cemeteries at the siege of Leningrad to survive'; or, 'oh hell this is nothing, 60,000 troops were baried alive in their trench all at once from shelling in WWI'. Some people like to think about rainbows and unicorns to escape. I like disasters.

However, I am watching this documentary. I know there was spanish flue in WWI, but this documentary, like most WWI documentaries, seemed to have avoided that subject completely. Then there was a brief 5 second statistical bomb dropped into a 2 and half hour documentary on the War. More Germans were killed by the 1918 "spanish" flue, then all the bombs dropped on Germany during WWII. yea, the Hamburg and Dresden fire bombing, combined, was not the worse thing that ever happened to Germany. They had to go and ruin my perfectly good attempt at 'escape to another time and crisis'.

So, that got me thinking about how the World changed after the "spanish" flue.

Well, unfortunately, it obviously did not change much, in most respects, or we would have been ready for this one.

On the other hand, it did, in some important ways, that were only recently abandoned for lack of collective generational memory. For instance the CDC was founded. so was the whole field of virology and epidemiology, etc. A lot of technology and resources were put to work, to focus on the risk of epidemics.

Most of that was because we still had a generation alive that remembered how serious epidemics were. My father had polio as a child, and recovered except that he had weakness in his back muscles the rest of his life. My grandmother died of polio, after being in an iron lung for months, when my mother was only 18 years old. I do at least remember the stories my parents told about those epidemics, and the seriousness in which they told those stories.

One of the most relaxed people I have spoken to throughout all this pandemic is my wife's aunt. she has been a pediatrician, and is a specialist in epidemiology, for over 50 years. she is in her 80's now and just retired. She was like, "oh, this is nothing. I have been treating kids with far deadlier contagious diseases than this. If this bug is going to get me, so what. I thought I was dead 50 years ago when I treated my first case of Cholera".

She ran the first vaccination campaigns to the rural parts of southern Chile as a young doctor.

The point is, the world did change after those epidemics. The World did do something. In fact, our world is as over crowded as it is, because we were so successful at it.

The problem is, gen Z through X don't really know about that. Even the baby boomers, were mostly exempt from those problems. Perhaps that is where we took our eye off the ball as a species. It is not the terrorist with an AK-47 in a cave in afganistan that will get us. It is not a war with China, or russia, or bla, bla, bla <insert imaged threat here>.

It will be the same threats we have faced for a 100,000+ years. Perhaps, it will help refocus our idiot politicians and the global public, on the fact we are all in the same boat together, once again.

When that starving, weakened, kid in Africa catches a never before seen bug because his mother did not have have money or sufficient education to know not to feed him meat from an exotic endangered specie, it is EVERYONE'S PROBLEM.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
tiagoabner
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 999
Joined: Sat Mar 04, 2017 9:48 am

Re: The Day After

Post by tiagoabner » Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:01 am

I was thinking about how things were going right now and I was wondering what could make things worse. I mean, things are bad, but there's always a way to turn things to worse.

I could only come up with a few scenarios that would have an immediate-ish effect on Chile: massive earthquake, a volcanic eruption for a volcano close do a populated area (San Jose, maybe?) or a massive meltdown of the copper price.

Right now, everyone is taking care of their own problems. I was talking to a friend in Italy and their mindset is to take care of their sick and care about the rest of the world later.

Chile's isolation (geographic or otherwise) may be a blessing at our "The day after" days. There are a few ways in which the country can be screwed, but most of them are natural disasters. Not many countries can claim that. I wouldn't choose another place to be during these exciting times.
I'm NOT your lawyer, accountant or financial planner. All information at this post should be considered for your entertainment only. Consult a professional before making a decision regarding whatever topic was mentioned in this post.

User avatar
eeuunikkeiexpat
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 8127
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2006 1:38 am
Location: Megalith of unknown origin near my digs, south V Region coast

Re: The Day After

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:08 am

"The Day After" is soooo 80's. :mrgreen:

How about "28 Days Later: the initial human toll",

or "28 Weeks Later: the final human toll",

or a new one, "28 Months Later: the Lasting Economic Toll".

Like the above, all we need now is a huge natural disaster like the great mega-Valpo quake and we go from fried to burnt and pounded into ashes. There is a metaphysical theory that when a population is stressed by above ground human actions (civil strife, war, curbs on freedom, etc.), it becomes reflected in a natural disaster from below or above. As above, so below. :alien:
There are two ways to be fooled.

One is to believe what isn't true;

the other is to refuse to believe what is true.

- Søren Kierkegaard

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 21547
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The Day After

Post by admin » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:32 am

we are about 28 weeks later, since the 18-0 social crisis.

what would make worse would be the rise of the zombie hordes in plaza itialia again. all the little wankers deciding protesting was more important that people dying.

so far, they have been fairly well behaved.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
tiagoabner
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 999
Joined: Sat Mar 04, 2017 9:48 am

Re: The Day After

Post by tiagoabner » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:58 am

admin wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:32 am
we are about 28 weeks later, since the 18-0 social crisis.

what would make worse would be the rise of the zombie hordes in plaza Italia again. all the little wankers deciding protesting was more important than people dying.

so far, they have been fairly well behaved.
They had public support regarding social demands. They don't have public support to protest during a pandemic quarantine, and they know it. The armed forces will have much fewer qualms about beating the living crap out of them if they try to pull any type of bullshit right now.
I'm NOT your lawyer, accountant or financial planner. All information at this post should be considered for your entertainment only. Consult a professional before making a decision regarding whatever topic was mentioned in this post.

User avatar
hlf2888
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 861
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:19 pm
Location: seventh region

Re: The Day After

Post by hlf2888 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:14 am

admin wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:59 am


One of the most relaxed people I have spoken to throughout all this pandemic is my wife's aunt. she has been a pediatrician, and is a specialist in epidemiology, for over 50 years. she is in her 80's now and just retired. She was like, "oh, this is nothing. I have been treating kids with far deadlier contagious diseases than this. If this bug is going to get me, so what. I thought I was dead 50 years ago when I treated my first case of Cholera".

She ran the first vaccination campaigns to the rural parts of southern Chile as a young doctor.
Your wife's aunt would agree with the doctors on the video I posted under Covid 19 theories.

mem
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 849
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:18 am

Re: The Day After

Post by mem » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:00 pm

For those keeping track...there were 18.5k killed in 18 months of 2009 h1n1. Whereas with this is 27k+ dead in 3-4 months depending on what is chosen for a starting date.

The death rate is definitely going parabolic and unprecedented during the age of modern internet tracking coordination that covers the planet, electronic medical records, etc. Apples to apples data

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 21547
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The Day After

Post by admin » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:34 am

I think we are just getting going.

This bug is only now starting to take hold in the developing world, where healthcare does not work or exist on a good day.

Mexico, brazil, central America, africa, the middle east, India, Pakistan, etc.. that is billions of people flying in to this storm, with zero safety net.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

mem
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 849
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:18 am

Re: The Day After

Post by mem » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:59 am

bert.douglas wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:07 am
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/

We estimated an average of 389 000 (uncertainty range 294 000-518 000) respiratory deaths were associated with influenza globally each year during the study period, corresponding to ~ 2% of all annual respiratory deaths. Of these, 67% were among people 65 years and older.
Yet amazingly, every year, 1 out of 5 humans on planet earth are not locked down.
According to the National Vital Statistics Systemin the U.S., for example, annual flu deaths in 2010 amounted to just 500 per year -- fewer than deaths from ulcers (2,977), hernias (1,832) and pregnancy and childbirth (825), and a far cry from the big killers such as heart disease (597,689) and cancers (574,743).
...
Even that 500 figure for the U.S. could be too high, according to analyses in authoritative journals such as the American Journal of Public Health and the British Medical Journal. Only about 15-20 per cent of people who come down with flu-like symptoms have the influenza virus -- the other 80-85 per cent actually caught rhinovirus or other germs that are indistinguishable from the true flu without laboratory tests, which are rarely done. In 2001, a year in which death certificates listed 257 Americans as having died of flu, only 18 were positively identified as true flus. The other 239 were simply assumed to be flus and most likely had few true flus among them.

"U.S. data on influenza deaths are a mess," states a 2005 article in the British Medical Journal entitled "Are U.S. flu death figures more PR than science?" This article takes issue with the 36,000 flu-death figure commonly claimed, and with describing "influenza/pneumonia" as the seventh leading cause of death in the U.S.

"But why are flu and pneumonia bundled together?" the article asks. "Is the relationship so strong or unique to warrant characterizing them as a single cause of death?"

The article's answer is no. Most pneumonia deaths are unrelated to influenza. For example, "stomach acid suppressing drugs are associated with a higher risk of community-acquired pneumonia, but such drugs and pneumonia are not compiled as a single statistic," explained Dr. David Rosenthal, director of Harvard University Health Services. "People don't necessarily die, per se, of the [flu] virus -- the viraemia. What they die of is a secondary pneumonia."

Pneumonia, according to the American Lung Association, has more than 30 different causes, influenza being but one of them. The CDC itself acknowledges the slim relationship, saying "only a small proportion of deaths... only 8.5 per cent of all pneumonia and influenza deaths [are] influenza-related."
That's the danger with over blustering stats that are tenuously compiled (or worse extrapolated in retrospect) to grandstand the annual flu into the "zillions".

Because then when a real once in a century pandemic comes along people try to minimise the pandemic based on the annual flu comparisons. This leads to reckless behaviour that exacerbates a true threat that is flooding hospitals worldwide. Annual flu doesnt flood hospitals worldwide...the secondary effects tell the truth of the scale

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 21547
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The Day After

Post by admin » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:42 am

the spanish flue has been estimated to have killed 50 million to as many as 500 million (don't buy this one), but the world population in 1918 was only estimated to be around 1.8 billion people.

at 7.7 billion people today, with a conservative estimate that only 50% of the population contracts this virus, that is 3,850,000,000 people.

If we take a very conservative death rate of 1%, which seems to be fairly constant even in developed countries with resources and medical technology, that gives us a death total of around 38,500,000

again, those are the conservative numbers. we could start making estimates of what will happen in developing countries with no medical system to speak of, no government ability (or inclination) to impose mass quarantines, etc, based on say Italy at around 5% death rate and still be on the conservative side because Italy has a functioning government and health system (sort if).

Iran, is probably a better model of what happens when a country does nothing, but we don't even have guesstimates of how bad it is in Iran. Even Iran has a government that was able to impose a quarantine.

what I am concerned about is places where there is no government, except in name. where war lords and gangs are the government. hell, there are stories out of Brazil's poor nieghborhoods, that drug gangs are implementing quarantines in their territory, that the government is not.

This will get bad. really bad.

That is besides the early evidence that the denial of medical treatment for regular medical emergencies, is resulting in as many or more deaths than the virus directly.

doubling those numbers is not too far out there.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 21547
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The Day After

Post by admin » Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:29 am

Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

Post Reply