The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Wed May 20, 2020 12:07 pm

well, Goldman sachs seems to think chile will be the only country in latin America to recover before 2022-23.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-p ... 80231.html
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Sat May 23, 2020 9:35 pm

Thought an update would be timely, look at the Brasil Real, and now think how that compares to the 4 year fluctuation of CLP. Those expats in Brasil got it worse than us in Shiiile. :P


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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by PXYC » Sat May 23, 2020 11:45 pm

CLP recovered a bit on the last couple of days - 20 pesos this week.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Sun May 24, 2020 7:58 am

what are they basing that Argentina peso on?

The dollar blue was at least 50% over their fixed official peso last I checked and headed further down.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Sun May 24, 2020 8:25 am

blue dollar is at 127 pesos to the dollar this morning.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by El Presidente » Sun May 24, 2020 8:31 am

Yeah there's also about 6 months of data missing from mid-2018 onwards for CLP and ARS. Odd considering this info is freely available (for CLP at least) on the Central Bank of Chile (Dólar Observado) or the Bolsa Electrónica de Chile (promedio datatec).
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by tiagoabner » Tue May 26, 2020 5:03 am

Latam has started a restructuring process, the first step to file for bankruptcy in the USA under chapter 11.

https://m.cooperativa.cl/noticias/site/ ... 04610.html
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Tue May 26, 2020 10:19 am

yea, the government(s) will have to step in and bail them out. The Chilean economy simply will not handle a latam implosion.

somewhere else in the world, no big deal. a bunch of other airlines would fill the gap, but not with Chile's geographic location and small population.

Of course, 1,2,3....

cue ignorant ranting and ravings from the FA and PC parties about bailing out big companies associated with Pinera.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by tiagoabner » Tue May 26, 2020 10:22 am

admin wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 10:19 am
yea, the government(s) will have to step in and bail them out. The Chilean economy simply will not handle a latam implosion.

somewhere else in the world, no big deal. a bunch of other airlines would fill the gap, but not with Chile's geographic location and small population.

Of course, 1,2,3....

cue ignorant ranting and ravings from the FA and PC parties about bailing out big companies associated with Pinera.
Yep, they'll totally bitch about it, even though not bailing them out will have a larger impact on the economy.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Fugger » Tue May 26, 2020 2:29 pm

tiagoabner wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 10:22 am
admin wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 10:19 am
yea, the government(s) will have to step in and bail them out. The Chilean economy simply will not handle a latam implosion.

somewhere else in the world, no big deal. a bunch of other airlines would fill the gap, but not with Chile's geographic location and small population.

Of course, 1,2,3....

cue ignorant ranting and ravings from the FA and PC parties about bailing out big companies associated with Pinera.
Yep, they'll totally bitch about it, even though not bailing them out will have a larger impact on the economy.
The main questions is obviously what happens to capital providers.

In the case of Norwegian equityholders were wiped out (actually they keep 5.2%) and bondholders (and aircraft lease companies) and aircraft leasing companies and bondholders became the new owners.

In the case of Lufthansa the package is mostly debt (EUR 6 billion paying 4% p.a. plus EUR 3 billion from a German development bank). Additionally the pay EUR 300 million for a 20% share of the company.

For Latam it will probably be a mix of bondholder and aircract lease company conversion (the whole point of restructuring) plus Chilean government guarantee debt. Let's see what the mix will be. My guesstimate is that current equity owner will own only 50%+/-25% of new Latam.

Whoever emerges will probably be in a very strong market position (with monopolistic situations on many routes).
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by ghibli » Tue May 26, 2020 3:11 pm

Fugger, you seem to be completely discounting SKY Airlines. Any particular reason? Also, I wonder how the Latam chap 11 will affect Delta.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Tue May 26, 2020 7:57 pm

ghibli wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 3:11 pm
Fugger, you seem to be completely discounting SKY Airlines. Any particular reason? Also, I wonder how the Latam chap 11 will affect Delta.
it is a tiny regional airline, and it also is not posession of legacy landing/ slot rights of all the government airlines that lan gobbled up in its creation accross latin America.
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