State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

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fraggle092
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by fraggle092 » Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:38 pm

This YouTube comment has the ring of truth to it.
This "el que baila pasa" is typical of the silly shit that these kids get up to.
But Big John wasn't having it....he "stood his ground". Idiot.
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John Cobin habla tras los disparos en su canal de Youtube - YouTube.jpg
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by frozen-north » Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:41 pm

Britkid wrote:
Another question is, if his story of events (just happened to be on the way to the gun range, car was surrounded) is true, why was he wearing a yellow vest? Did he stop to put it on amidst all the action (doesn't seem plausible)? Or does he always wear it when driving (seems odd)?
One of the comments says that he put on the yellow vest just before he started shooting.
Ataque indiscriminado de “Chaqueta amarilla” a manifestantes PACIFICOS, en Reñaca. #Renaca #nuevopacto #ChileViolatesHumanRights la foto se la saque antes que empezara a disparar, me causó extrañeza que se empezara a poner el chaleco amarillo mientras esperaba pasar. pic.twitter.com/n1tq6lI94M

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:46 pm

So anyone wearing a yellow vest will now be a target by cowardly packs for rocks, bottles, molotov cocktails if not just a simple beating till almost dead.
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by gregf » Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:47 pm

What an ass.

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fraggle092
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by fraggle092 » Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:04 pm

The doo-doo's getting deeper. It's a message to other wannabe vigilantes.
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Screenshot-2019-11-10 Intendencia anuncia querella por homicidio frustrado contra sujeto que disparó a manifestante.jpg
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https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/ ... enaca.html
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by murf » Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:14 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:04 pm
The doo-doo's getting deeper. It's a message to other wannabe vigilantes.
.
Screenshot-2019-11-10 Intendencia anuncia querella por homicidio frustrado contra sujeto que disparó a manifestante.jpg
.
https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/ ... enaca.html
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by Fugger » Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:26 am

Space Cat wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:38 pm
WTF with the 110 years life expectancy? Pure incompetency and self-inflicted disaster.
I think neither.

The fact that mortality tables go up to 110 years, doesn't mean that the life expectancy is 110 years. In fact other countries go much higher, i.e. 120 to 140 years (https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/ ... -anos.html).

A mortality table is nothing more than the probability of survival for the next year as a function of age and sex (normally expressed as probability of death, also called qx) and in the case of Chile differentiating between "pensionados por vejez" and "pensionados por invalidez". It is well knows that over the past 120 years the world has seen consistent mortality improvement and Chile more so than most other countries. This has been incoporated by reducing the expected future mortality rate by a certain annual rate (called aax).

The details of the tables and the methodology behind it are described here: http://www.cmfchile.cl/normativa/ncg_398_2015.pdf

I wasn't involved in the calculation of the Chilean tables. However, looking at the values, I would say the following:
- the mortality rates seem reasonable and in line with what I would have expected (also there is not much bias anybody can introduce either way)
- the mortality improvement rates seem a touch high, they also tend to be more subjective because they involve assessment of future medical improvements and life style (prevalence of smoking, fitness, nutrition etc), extrapolating historical improvement only works to a limited extent

May be this is a role for the state, i.e. provide private insurers with a longevity protection, so these can improve annuity rates (although the effect would probably only be 5-10%).
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by 41southchile » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:01 am

Fugger wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:26 am
Space Cat wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:38 pm
WTF with the 110 years life expectancy? Pure incompetency and self-inflicted disaster.
I think neither.

The fact that mortality tables go up to 110 years, doesn't mean that the life expectancy is 110 years. In fact other countries go much higher, i.e. 120 to 140 years (https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/ ... -anos.html).

A mortality table is nothing more than the probability of survival for the next year as a function of age and sex (normally expressed as probability of death, also called qx) and in the case of Chile differentiating between "pensionados por vejez" and "pensionados por invalidez". It is well knows that over the past 120 years the world has seen consistent mortality improvement and Chile more so than most other countries. This has been incoporated by reducing the expected future mortality rate by a certain annual rate (called aax).

The details of the tables and the methodology behind it are described here: http://www.cmfchile.cl/normativa/ncg_398_2015.pdf

I wasn't involved in the calculation of the Chilean tables. However, looking at the values, I would say the following:
- the mortality rates seem reasonable and in line with what I would have expected (also there is not much bias anybody can introduce either way)
- the mortality improvement rates seem a touch high, they also tend to be more subjective because they involve assessment of future medical improvements and life style (prevalence of smoking, fitness, nutrition etc), extrapolating historical improvement only works to a limited extent

May be this is a role for the state, i.e. provide private insurers with a longevity protection, so these can improve annuity rates (although the effect would probably only be 5-10%).
I have heard maybe 10 percent for men and 16 for women, or something like that (maybe its other way around)not a bad increase, if the state made those suggestions you mention, but not the 50 percent like some claimed obviously had very little understanding.
Another thing I have noticed, from people like my mother in law who complain how shit the amount she gets is. Being generous she would have contributed maybe 24 or 25 years and at a low percent. Not that surprising, but it is for her, which seems a big issue here. The AFPs have been criticized and the system needs adjustments, but the misunderstanding even from those speaking as so called "experts" is a lot of the problem. No one understands the system, no one realizes they are not contributing enough either as a percentage or wages or in years put in, yet no one admits that.
The main issue is wages don't allow for bigger retirement savings, and those that can afford to save more get assistance through the APV model, which is again just showing the unevenness the system.
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by admin » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:27 am

fraggle092 wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:04 pm
The doo-doo's getting deeper. It's a message to other wannabe vigilantes.
.
Screenshot-2019-11-10 Intendencia anuncia querella por homicidio frustrado contra sujeto que disparó a manifestante.jpg
.
https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/ ... enaca.html
I am shocked, :roll: :shock:




that it took him this long to get arrested.
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by 41southchile » Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:00 am

Dosedmonkey wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:12 pm


So this guy is clueless about Chile and sorry but as a European he comes off as a almost cartoon stereo tyoe American, doesn't know other countries are different, thinks he can pull a gun out to defend himself against a crowd of unarmed people and wants everyone to pray for him, when he is the suspect.

Yeah the guy is a about as ignorant as the protestors he was "defending" himself from, he hasn't got a friggin clue what is happening, brainwashed and believes he is the only one that is right. Only difference between him and the protestors mentality is that he thinks he is a friggin star and extra special or something because he can talk the bullshit talk and is a gringo. Just have to hope people dont stereotype all gringos now after this clowns behavior, inevitably some will. Stay away from the beach I guess on a Sunday afternoon in Reñaca, as someone mentioned, it's like this guy went looking for provocation.
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by Jamers41 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:08 am

41southchile wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:00 am
Dosedmonkey wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:12 pm


So this guy is clueless about Chile and sorry but as a European he comes off as a almost cartoon stereo tyoe American, doesn't know other countries are different, thinks he can pull a gun out to defend himself against a crowd of unarmed people and wants everyone to pray for him, when he is the suspect.

Yeah the guy is a about as ignorant as the protestors he was "defending" himself from, he hasn't got a friggin clue what is happening, brainwashed and believes he is the only one that is right. Only difference between him and the protestors mentality is that he thinks he is a friggin star and extra special or something because he can talk the bullshit talk and is a gringo. Just have to hope people dont stereotype all gringos now after this clowns behavior, inevitably some will. Stay away from the beach I guess on a Sunday afternoon in Reñaca, as someone mentioned, it's like this guy went looking for provocation.
Yeah the protestor's game of making people get out of their cars and dance is silly, and from the video I saw they did get a bit aggressive when he refused to play along, but even so, he's going to have a really hard time justifying all that as self defense from the videos I saw. He had plenty of time to get out of the truck, take shots against unarmed protestors, all while he had a clear escape route with no traffic in front of him. Plus now his personal info is all public and out there on the web. Good luck dude.

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by Dosedmonkey » Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:14 am

41southchile wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:30 pm
Whatever the circumstances, govt will look to make an example of him I bet, attempted homicide or whatever that translates to, intentendent for the area doing a querella tomorrow. This guys life just changed forever today.
I don't think the guys life has suddenly changed though. Everything about him makes my skin crawl and I feel he has been on this path for a long time. As admin says, shocked it took this long to arrest him. He should of been deported a long time ago, way to shady a character. The fact people like him are allowed to work in Universities and then they wonder why all the students go rioting over misguided politics...

And yes Britkid I just linked it for the videos. I have seen some over freeze frames from an apartment, but shows much the same.

I feel the fact a car pootles on by slowly before he fires the same shots makes me think he just pulled up, put the jacket on and then got out and started shooting. There is two guys near his car behind parked cars on the pavement and they do not look anything like the rioters and looters we have been seeing, just happen to be passing I guess.. He is just very reminiscent of the random mentally ill shootings that seem to occur in USA on a very frequent basis...

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