Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:37 pm

seawolf180 wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:12 pm
Hi all.
Been a while. Hope you all are well.

I’m heading over to Mendoza with my family in a couple weeks.
Haven’t been over there (Argentina) in a long long time.
Wondering whether I should just take my US credit cards, or whether it’s worth hassling with buying dollars here first, and exchanging them in Mendoza.
Would rather bus straight to the airport from here.
Don’t want to go into Stgo just to exchange currency, don’t want to travel with a bunch of cash.

Any recommendations for mid priced lodging, and picadas for eating, wine tours, etc would be welcomed.
long time no see seawolf.

I would use your cards, to help stay ahead of the fast moving peso fall while there.

also, the pick-pockets are fast and they are cloning cards within mins of lifting them in argentina. keep some backup, clean unused cards in a safe location.

carrying cash at a minimum, and right now the dollar is the defacto currency. you will see signs at cash registers from the consumer protection agency, around Argentina declaring the official dollar /peso rate to be like 40 to the dollar, even if it is trading much higher.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by seawolf180 » Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:53 pm

admin wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:37 pm
seawolf180 wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:12 pm
Hi all.
Been a while. Hope you all are well.

I’m heading over to Mendoza with my family in a couple weeks.
Haven’t been over there (Argentina) in a long long time.
Wondering whether I should just take my US credit cards, or whether it’s worth hassling with buying dollars here first, and exchanging them in Mendoza.
Would rather bus straight to the airport from here.
Don’t want to go into Stgo just to exchange currency, don’t want to travel with a bunch of cash.

Any recommendations for mid priced lodging, and picadas for eating, wine tours, etc would be welcomed.
long time no see seawolf.

I would use your cards, to help stay ahead of the fast moving peso fall while there.

also, the pick-pockets are fast and they are cloning cards within mins of lifting them in argentina. keep some backup, clean unused cards in a safe location.

carrying cash at a minimum, and right now the dollar is the defacto currency. you will see signs at cash registers from the consumer protection agency, around Argentina declaring the official dollar /peso rate to be like 40 to the dollar, even if it is trading much higher.
That’s just what I wanted to hear. Thanks Charles.
Well, except for the Argie Lanzas.

Anybody have a preference of a vineyard with a good restaurant and tour.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:22 pm

well, here comes the inevitable tsunami of articles and talking heads warning about the "contagion" from Argentina.

never mind chile is doing almost no trade with Argentina, and most companies have gotten out or dialed back to almost nothing.

Chile did a whole wopping $311 million in the first 6 months, 22% less than 2018.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-p ... 01037.html

chile will probably not do a billion dollars this year with Argentina. just as Argentinians are use to their crisis, most of the neighbors are too.

here is another way to put it, name 10 major Argentina owned companies in chile, worth more than say a billion dollars?

i can't.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by nwdiver » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:53 am

admin wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:22 pm
well, here comes the inevitable tsunami of articles and talking heads warning about the "contagion" from Argentina.

never mind chile is doing almost no trade with Argentina, and most companies have gotten out or dialed back to almost nothing.

Chile did a whole wopping $311 million in the first 6 months, 22% less than 2018.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-p ... 01037.html

chile will probably not do a billion dollars this year with Argentina. just as Argentinians are use to their crisis, most of the neighbors are too.

here is another way to put it, name 10 major Argentina owned companies in chile, worth more than say a billion dollars?

i can't.


Name 10 Argentine companies in Argentina that are worth over a billion today......
It's all about the wine.

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:18 am

nwdiver wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:53 am
admin wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:22 pm
well, here comes the inevitable tsunami of articles and talking heads warning about the "contagion" from Argentina.

never mind chile is doing almost no trade with Argentina, and most companies have gotten out or dialed back to almost nothing.

Chile did a whole wopping $311 million in the first 6 months, 22% less than 2018.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-p ... 01037.html

chile will probably not do a billion dollars this year with Argentina. just as Argentinians are use to their crisis, most of the neighbors are too.

here is another way to put it, name 10 major Argentina owned companies in chile, worth more than say a billion dollars?

i can't.


Name 10 Argentine companies in Argentina that are worth over a billion today......
yea, as much as I might like to pick on argentina, that is even more sad.

Chile, even in it's current state of development, should be Argentina's poor neighbor relative to the economic potential that country has. It should be cranking out companies, big and small, with massive international influence.

The kicker, Chile would be much richer, if Argentina was a fully functional economic power house next door.

Every time I cross that land boarder, I just think 'what a waist of potential'. That boarder should at least functionally not exist except on paper. chile and Argentina should have a full free trade agreement /economic zone with little more than a sign that says 'welcome to Argentina' or 'welcome to chile'.

Argentina should be chile's largest trading partner. full stop.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:37 am

here is the comparison with the pacific alliance trade agreement countries, and i think chile / Argentina would have far more to trade.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-p ... 32614.html
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Fri Aug 16, 2019 5:09 pm

well bad week for Argentina.

fitch downgraded their debt to likly default, ccc. not sure how they ever got out of that category.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium

brazil made some comments about pulling out of mercosur, if the left wins in Argentina and returns to their closed market tendencies. I think it would be ironic if the leftist killed mercosur, an anti-trade agreement that i think is one of the major errors that has been holding Argentina back.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Sun Aug 18, 2019 11:01 am

well, like it always does when this starts to happen, the migration of Argentinans to chile has started.

https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia ... na/786222/

i have been really impressed by the number of argentinans in frutillar recently, and they are not just tourist.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Sun Aug 18, 2019 11:23 am

and, S&P has also downgraded Argentina now.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/ ... rcado.html
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Sun Aug 18, 2019 11:36 am

so the second quarter, 2020 is D-day (debt day) for Argentina.

they went from needing to repay 5.6 billion, to 20 billion.

IMF forced restructuring coming down the pipe, regardless of who wins.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1V61P1
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Sun Aug 18, 2019 7:30 pm

brace for impact monday.

Fernandez (the dude, not the woman) says that Argentina can not make its payments, is already in default territory, and macri should restructured the debt.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... downgrades

do I hear 100 (100 pesos to the dollar, 100% default, no money in 100 years, 100% left wins, take your pick), going once, going twice, going 20 times, collapsed.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:03 pm

i just seen a passing estimate that after last week, inflation in argentina is about 103% this year.


dollarize or die:

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/argent ... 1566158469

there really is no other way out of this now, but real dollars. no fake dollar peg.

interesting article that compares the M1 money supply in Argentina to chile.
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