Chile ranked #1 in latin america by forbes, 33 in the world

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Chile ranked #1 in latin america by forbes, 33 in the world

Post by admin » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:38 am

Forbes has ranked chile #1 in latin america, and #33 in the World, for doing business in 2019.

Next closest was costa rica at 48, and Uruguay at 56, mexico at 54.

https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia ... os/467005/


chile seems to however be hitting a wall in these country rankings and sitting in the 30's, almost regardless of what they are ranking (even bad stuff). once you add in all the developed countries, and a few of the super star developing countries, there is not much low hanging fruit for chile to advance past. to make any serious progress, would require chile to start over taking developed countries consistently in those rankings.
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Re: Chile ranked #1 in latin america by forbes, 33 in the world

Post by admin » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:54 am

i might point out though, the data they are using looks like 2017 numbers:
Sus principales datos macroeconómicos son un PIB de 277 billones de dólares a diciembre de 2018, con un crecimiento del 1,5%; un PIB per cápita de 15.300 dólares; una relación entre balanza comercial y PIB negativa, del -1.5%; una población del 17,9 millones, una relación entre deuda pública y PIB del 24%, un desempleo del 6,7% y una inflación del 2,2%.
growth in 2018, looks like it is going to come in closer to 3.9% and possibly over 4%. think the per capita income is over $16,000 u.s., but i am sure the exchange rate makes tyat hard to nail down in dollar terms. population is over 18 million, closer to 18.5 million.

also inflation numbers came in negative the last few months, mostly due to drop in oil prices. still waiting for final 2018 numbers from the central bank.

so perhsps if the current numbers were used chile might grab a few more spots.
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Re: Chile ranked #1 in latin america by forbes, 33 in the world

Post by AnciaVagar » Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:46 pm

That onion has a lot of layers to peel before we see the sources. The Forbes index is a composite of fifteen indices, many of which use the same sources creating bias & over-reliance. Many of the sources appear to ask objective questions but accept findings from biased methodologies without disclaimer. Add in the unverifiable government produced "data" and it looks more like a real guiso.

How much do you want to rely on the World Bank's agenda? Does anyone trust the UN? How much does Forbes rely on subjective factors (directly & indirectly)?

At least the body of data can be more useful than the rankings since, with effort, one can filter out the soft factors and keep the hard metrics.

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Re: Chile ranked #1 in latin america by forbes, 33 in the world

Post by admin » Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:08 pm

FYI, seems the growth came in 3.9% after a weeker december, but still really good.

i still see all these analysis from the major banks claiming chiles debt is 50 to 70% of gdp, which it is really around 23%. those number i believe keep showing up in articles with screenshots from the bloomberg terminals, and i as yet to see anyone explain how they came to that number. but those numbers on the blolmberg terminal effect a million things related to chile's credit score and how that trickles down to other things in the economy.
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Re: Chile ranked #1 in latin america by forbes, 33 in the world

Post by AnciaVagar » Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:17 pm

Unfortunately, bloomberg has never been in the truth business. By overstating Chile's debt, bloomberg is saying that Chile should borrow a lot more -- a political agenda statement.

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Re: Chile ranked #1 in latin america by forbes, 33 in the world

Post by admin » Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:33 am

AnciaVagar wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:17 pm
Unfortunately, bloomberg has never been in the truth business. By overstating Chile's debt, bloomberg is saying that Chile should borrow a lot more -- a political agenda statement.
my theory is they use it to push up the cost of credit default swaps, currency, and bond interest rates, both directly and indirectly.

if you fudge the numbers on chile, with one of the best credit ratings in the emerging markets, then say some place that is a little less stable situation, they can price them relative to chile and a bunch of other countries they fudged the numbers on. remember those guys work in 100's of billions of dollars. if they can squeeze say 0.005% more out of those purchases, that is a lot of money, and a lot more commission.

so you will see cordinated attacks. bloomberg numbers, sighted in multiple articles saying things such as 'chile is part of the fragil five' etc; but, you will never see hard numbers that are explained as to why chile is in trouble. they seem to fo that about once a year, or every other year, then move on to another country.
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Re: Chile ranked #1 in latin america by forbes, 33 in the world

Post by at46 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:37 am

The Chilean government is not doing a good job of putting out its own correct, verifiable and easily available data. Any information I have ever looked for always left me wondering if it's actually true, complete and up-to-date. Sometimes I think the local oligarchs are doing it on purpose - not to attract too much attention to just how well they're all doing here. Other times I think nobody actually knows anything about their own country outside of their little specialty sandbox. But then whenever I talk to those 'specialists', be it doctors or auto mechanics, I often wonder how come I know more than them. It's not that they're all bad, there are a few good ones out there, too, but it's the sheer amount of ineptitude you face on a daily basis that's baffling.

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Re: Chile ranked #1 in latin america by forbes, 33 in the world

Post by admin » Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:27 pm

central bank web site tends to have good stats and info, but like most things with chile they are bad at promoting it. sticking a stability report on the 50th page of an obscure site, in a pdf, does do a lot for getting the info out. it does not have a chance of competing with say bloomberg or msnbc, etc as far promoting chile and countering the arguments against chile.

https://www.bcentral.cl/web/central-bank-of-chile/home
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Re: Chile ranked #1 in latin america by forbes, 33 in the world

Post by AnciaVagar » Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:22 pm

admin wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:33 am

my theory is they use it to push up the cost of credit default swaps, currency, and bond interest rates, both directly and indirectly.
That fits and I'm a strong believer in what fits.

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Re: Chile ranked #1 in latin america by forbes, 33 in the world

Post by admin » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:47 pm

Well, speak of the devil.

Bloomberg is out with a 'oh my GOD THEY ARE ALL GOING TO DIE, THE COUNTRY IS GOING TO COLLAPSE IN TO CHAOS' headline, over a weaker consumer demand number for November:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... sales-drop

They could have just as easily done a headline with any of these data points in the article:
November result follows a 7.5 percent jump in retail sales in October.
Separately, the index of commercial activity grew 0.6 percent in November from a year earlier helped by machinery and equipment, textile, and agricultural materials, the latter of which rose 24.9 percent from the previous year.
As I recall seeing some time ago, there was actually a change in the way the data was calculated being implemented at the end of the year. I don't know where that article is now.

What probably really explains it is the central bank raised interest rates, while inflation rate came in at around 0%, so everyone sort of held their breath to see how that was going to effect their consumer interest rates, after having loaded up in October prior to the interest rates working in to the system. Now the central bank has announced they are pausing the interest rate increases to see the effect.

Do you really want to put a bunch of crap you don't need on your credit card, when you are not sure how much it is going to cost?

Give me 6 months of those data points, and then it is time to worry, and worth the headline, let alone publishing that article at all.
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