Venezuela crisis

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at46
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by at46 » Sun Dec 30, 2018 5:01 pm

admin wrote:
Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:31 pm
at46 wrote:
Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:40 am
With the US/Israeli hawks plucked clean, things should calm down for Venezuela in the coming year. China/Russia + the City of London now have Trump on their side, hence the plucking of the hawks. The successful resolution of the Venezuela situation, with each party getting something out of it, will help strengthen that alliance. Trump gets to keep US jobs at the US refineries geared to Venezuela oil, China/Russia get to preserve/expand their Venezuela investments (60 billion and counting), City of London gets to showcase their 'financial know-how' in fixing inflation, avoiding sanctions, digital currency, etc.
i dont understand what any of that means.
I'll give you a shout when the wiki entry on this is up :lol:

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FrankPintor
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by FrankPintor » Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:38 pm

I’m just checking in from the coast in Vargas state... trying to make sense of what I’ve seen over the past few days.

First off, million percent inflation doesn’t really mean anything, the economy is dollarized, and paper money or local sovereign Bolívares are only used to lubricate small transactions like taking a taxi. Big ticket purchases like cars and property are priced in Dollars, and prices for other goods follow the parallel Dollar rate. Passports cost $2500 for Venezuelans and an investment visa will set you back $7000 or so.

The bank system is collapsing, banks go offline for processing card transactions for days or weeks at a time. People pay for most things, even taxi rides, by bank transfer.

Despite the huge problems with personal safety and the time wasted doing the simplest things, I get the feeling the economy is bottoming out. Goods are back in the shops, people are actually buying them, there are a lot of new cars around. There are still middle class people around, possibly kept afloat by remittances from relatives outside, and being part-paid in Dollars which is common enough for big private companies.

I don’t see anyone invading, Paraguay was the last country invaded by Brazil, that’s not going to happen. Colombia could, it’s military have been fighting in the jungle for the last 50 years, and if they wanted they could be in Caracas in 3 days maximum. But I don’t think they want to, if they break Venezuela they’ll own it, and that’s a heavy lift for a developing country. Plus, Colombians are not well liked in Venezuela, it would be a hostile environment for them. I’m worried about Duque though, he’s now replaying the assassination attempt show that Maduro tried a few months ago. Another drama queen is not what’s needed in the region.

Anecdotally, property investors are arriving to buy in at hopefully the bottom of the market, that trend started in 2018 and will probably continue this year in spite of the problems for a foreigner to get property registered in his or her name.

As far as the exodus is concerned, I think most middle class professionals that could leave have already gone. Now it’s the poor uneducated people who’ve been walloped very hard are leaving, often on foot, and only able to reach Bogotá, Quito and maybe Lima to beg or sell food on the streets. I don’t see too many making it to Chile or Argentina anymore, even a 1-way bus ticket to Buenos Aires costs $500.

That’s what i see here, like I said I’m still trying to make sense of it all.
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at46
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by at46 » Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:53 pm

at46 wrote:
Sun Dec 30, 2018 5:01 pm
admin wrote:
Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:31 pm
at46 wrote:
Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:40 am
With the US/Israeli hawks plucked clean, things should calm down for Venezuela in the coming year. China/Russia + the City of London now have Trump on their side, hence the plucking of the hawks. The successful resolution of the Venezuela situation, with each party getting something out of it, will help strengthen that alliance. Trump gets to keep US jobs at the US refineries geared to Venezuela oil, China/Russia get to preserve/expand their Venezuela investments (60 billion and counting), City of London gets to showcase their 'financial know-how' in fixing inflation, avoiding sanctions, digital currency, etc.
i dont understand what any of that means.
I'll give you a shout when the wiki entry on this is up :lol:
Here's a few interesting tidbits as a way of backgrounder to my comment, from someone I like to read.

The momentous US decision to withdraw from Syria helps establish the only stable configuration of power in that country that balances the interests of its neighbors as well as those of the grand world powers. Syria will effectively be divided into three areas controlled by the countries that have already been cooperating there: Iran (Shiite areas), Turkey (Sunni areas), and Russia (Alawi and Christian areas). Without the Sunni control of eastern Syria and the Trans-Euphrates territory, the balance of forces would have favoured Iran and allies, infringing on Israel and the Saudis, and damaging Jordan as the necessary stable buffer state. Kurdish control, even if shared with the US, would have threatened Turkey and all Sunnis more generally.

Regular attacks on US patrols in the Trans-Euphrates area in the middle of the year forced their decision. They faced two options – a new escalation mobilizing their Arab allies to quench Shiite attacks, which in the end would have led to American troops being replaced with unreliable allied fighters, or de-escalation and military withdrawal allowing the only stable Sunni army in the region - Turkey’s – to take over.

What makes this set up stable is the modifiable balance of interests of Iran and Turkey under Russian guaranties, with backdoor support from the City of London. Let us not forget that Iran and Erdogan’s Turkey, as well as Russia, would be out of business without London-based money-changers and their financial know-how. Let us also remember that Putin and Shoigu were invited into Syria by John Kerry who represents mercantile ‘old money’ allied with the money-changers.

Thus, the US withdrawal from Syria might be perceived as a complete victory of the money-changer coalition over the hawks. However, the hybrid world war that started as ‘Arab spring’ transformed Washington and global financial elites. The money-changers achieved their primary goal in Syria by driving the hawks’ vanguard, Israel, into the corner. But they haven’t been able to finish off their interminable opponent because the fight between the two coalitions gave rise and spurred growth of the third force – the financial stewards, or controllers, reliant on secret services, and it is this third force that rose to prominent positions in all of the grand world powers.

At this point neither money-changers have been able to finish off the hawks nor vice versa. Going forward they’ll continue playing on the teetering board while it is the third force that has complete control over which way the board actually teeters. In 2018 the money changers had to unite with the hawks in a temporary ‘left-right’ coalition to exert combined pressure on Trump, Putin and the entire financial stewardship group in order to achieve some agreement on ‘red lines’ and ‘rules of engagement’, all the while looking to sell their temporary ally for a good price at an opportune moment. Macron was the ostentatious leader of this global Fronde until his local Trump-inspired ‘handlers’ staged a domestic Fronde for him, effectively putting an end to the temporary coalition of the money-changers and the hawks. The Syria withdrawal demonstrates that the money-changers managed to sell out the hawks first.

The super-fast change of tone in the money-changer owned mass media was another important indicator of the new reality. Liberal media were all extremely anti-Trump prior to Maidan de Paris but have now started laying off their rhetoric. One wonders how soon they’ll say Trump is the best thing that has ever happened to America.

It is now clear that much of recent history in Syria and Israel needs to be viewed in the context of Turkey being brought in to take control over the Sunni buffer zone between Iran and Israel. This is what was behind the Syria-Russia agreement to extend Turkey’s deadline over Idlib until Erdogan had another place to resettle Sunni rebels. This was also behind the provocation of Russia by Israeli air force that forced Russia to take control of the Syrian air defense and all the Shiite military bases and airfields. This is also what drove the US secret services to lure the Saudi prince into the mousetrap in the Khashoggi case, given they had complete control over the Saudi consulate in Turkey as well as Khashoggi’s itinerary. The success of that job enabled Turkey to take over Saudi operators in Syria. The truce in Yemen was then granted the Saudis as a consolation prize.

The massive and cheaply executed Hamas missile attacks on Israel also proved important in this context revealing Israel’s vulnerability and many holes in its supposedly impenetrable missile shield. The attacks led to the collapse of the ruling coalition there while the prosecutors suddenly felt empowered enough to rehash old accusations against Netanyahu. Even without new elections it’s already clear the Israeli hawks have been dealt a big blow. Russia is set to become an important security guarantor of Israel in place of the US, while the leader of the Kulanu party will become Israel’s middleman dealing with Washington financial stewards.

The fact that the Syria withdrawal coincided with the FRS raising rates by another 0.25% might not be an accident either. Higher interest rates have no economic effect this late in the game, but they’re important in the general political and global context. Until recently FRS was one of the key tools of the coalition of banksters and hawks. Another such tool was the Pentagon with its outpost in Israel controlling global trade routes via Suez and Syria. Since the Pentagon has now come under joint management by the financial stewards from the secret services and London-based money-changers, the political weight of the FRS diminishes. From now on, given improved coverage of Trump by business and liberal media, higher interest rates from the FRS will only exacerbate the responsibility of its chief and its bankster and hawk shareholders for the economic doomsday. In fact, the entire Washington squabble of recent years has to do more with who’s going to be blamed for the falling asset prices and long-term stagflation than anything else.

Thus, we’re currently facing the start of the dramatic and long-winded transformation of the entire global financial and commercial system. The process requires efficient control over financial and mercantile elites – the global oligarchy – by secret services armed with an array of financial control tools. The purpose of luring the Saudi prince was to subdue that key player after having helped him earlier to consolidate his power over his brothers and cousins. None of the second and third rate players should have any ability to disrupt the change-over to the new and so far unknown ways of doing things. First rate players have been made offers they couldn’t refuse, but at the same time they’ve been shown a number of threats that they will face should they misbehave. For example, if the 100 day withdrawal period goes smoothly, Russia will obtain a very important role as Israel’s security guarantor. But until that time, effectively until the general elections in Kiev scheduled for March, it will be facing the threat of provocations and military escalations in the Donbass region and on the Crimean border.

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eeuunikkeiexpat
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:08 am

Sounds like a LaRouche-type analysis. Always did like those EIR reports on many aspects of world affairs and many do not realize the influence of their many arms and operations regarding the real world implementation of the OBOR concept.
Generally, just a SPAM KILLER. You are on your own in this forum. My personal mission here is done.

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ghibli
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by ghibli » Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:20 pm

To at46: thank you for that.

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:58 am

This might actually be some signs that the end is near. Several high-level defections seem to be going on in the the Maduro regime, including the recent supreme court justice.

Now the minister of defense, although still there, seems to be threatening to resign after asking Maduro to resign.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vene ... SKCN1P32LQ

My theory is that such high-level defections, tends to occur at the end of a regime, in a attempt for people that benefited from the regime, when they smell the political winds changing to jump ship to try and save themselves. If they get out sufficiently early, they may even get to keep their money. They are an indicator that an end might be near.

There has always been a problem with being a dictator. What is your retirement plan?

In order for a dictator to step-down voluntarily, someone needs to guarantee their safety and the safety of their family. In other words, typically someone more powerful, and often more corrupt. Famously Putin was suppose to have made that offer to Yeltsin in Russia. Pinochet, essentially built a legal and social structure around him to protect him and his family (e.g. the military, far right support, senator with immunity for life), making stepping down an option. Not many dictators actually find themselves in a position to do that, even if they wanted to step-down.
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:15 pm

well seems everyone is declaring Guaidio the defacto president of venezuela. everyone from pinera to trump has recognized him.

one problem, as Mao was fond of saying, all power flows from the barrel of a gun, and he does not seem to have many guns.

we are waiting to see now which way the military leans.
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:32 pm

watching telsur, the venezuelan goverment channel is like watching a comedy variety show as the clowns jump around, while trying to keep a straight face like they actualy believe the crap they are pushing.

on another front, of course the far left in chile is head's are exploding in chile over the fact that pinera recognized the new president. one of chile's socialist senators just got back from maduro's inauguration where he went on and on about the revolution and how chile was a brother in the struggle. maduro invoked allende. bla, bla, bla.

thise nut jobs realy believe the crap they are pushing. i guess human rights is for those with the "correct sort of thinking".
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Thu Jan 24, 2019 10:52 am

Not sure how to read this:
https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2019/ ... smo-froze/

Sounds encouraging, but if you have followed Venezuela for any number of years, we have been here before.

Sort of waiting for the other shoe to drop.

Maduro ordered U.S. embassy personal out. The new president implored them to stay. Trump has ordered them to stay.

I do find the whole, "America is supporting the Venezuela people" thing to be B.S. America is only supporting them now, because Venezuela has defaulted on most of its bonds and the Oil has stopped flowing in any significant amount. The U.S. placing sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports, is pretty meaningless at less than 500,000 barrels a day now being exported to the U.S.
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:18 am

Interesting video circulating of a conversation between venezuelan troops and a general:
https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2019/ ... -contempt/
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:38 am

Telsur right now is running a piece on the "new crisis in Turkey and Argentina", without a mention of Venezuela.

I own a little bit of a broad emerging market bond fund, and looking at the list of bonds across the entire EM holdings, the only defaulted bonds on the list are Venezuela related.

By the way, I did not even know they were in there until this morning, and bought the fund after they defaulted. Think I have a hold $10 or less invested in those Venezuela bonds. Probably more like zero.
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by Space Cat » Thu Jan 24, 2019 3:11 pm

Ok, now I'm convinced that FA is indeed PC's rebranding:
https://twitter.com/elfrente_amplio/sta ... 6354315264

There may be a few somewhat decent folks like Vlado Mirosevic or even Gabriel Boric (who strongly criticized Maduro lovers) but the broad part of this Broad Front is becoming more and more repulsive. Unless it's a FA vs. JAK presidential standoff, I'd prefer these people to stay out of power.

"Self-determination" my ass, I wonder if they would oppose the international pressure against Pinochet for the same reasons.

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