Amazon to go to Colombia....Not Chile

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41southchile
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Amazon to go to Colombia....Not Chile

Post by 41southchile » Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:17 pm

Amazon sets up in Colombia and not Chile, Seems there is a list as long as my arm why.
BTW, just as an aside (or kind of related) I am picking that Jose Antonio Kast will be president in 2021.
Anyway, anyone want to guess any other reasons on why Amazon went to Colombia and not Chile ?

http://www.elmostrador.cl/mercados/2018 ... udamerica/
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Re: Amazon to go to Colombia....Not Chile

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:32 pm

Bezos/Amazon/WP = CIA and Colombia is the CIA's favorite SA playground.
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Re: Amazon to go to Colombia....Not Chile

Post by Space Cat » Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:56 pm

I bet this is the reason: https://www.submarinecablemap.com/

Not sure what's the relationship but good luck to JAK in getting at least 25% because Chile is a centrist country historically. Frente Amplio has better chances if they drop their Venezuela-loving parties.

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Re: Amazon to go to Colombia....Not Chile

Post by 41southchile » Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:27 am

Space Cat wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:56 pm
I bet this is the reason: https://www.submarinecablemap.com/

Not sure what's the relationship but good luck to JAK in getting at least 25% because Chile is a centrist country historically. Frente Amplio has better chances if they drop their Venezuela-loving parties.
Could be , and just geographicly speaking Colombia makes more sense I guess, apparently LATAM and other airlines also have a major cargo hub there too.

As for JAK I wouldn't be so sure, nothing is certain in this world anymore, watch this space, all bets are off anything can happen these days. History is no longer a guide .
Reasons why and the relationship to this particular story is that Piñera is just not cutting it.
Also FA was just a protest vote against Guiller they won't be as credible next time .
Yeah there were a couple of good growth quaters but it looks like they have already peaked and annual growth figures are at the lower end of the optimistic figures at the beginning of his term and dropping back down in 2019. The right wants more liberalisation but what has this government done, interfered in trying to keep a sugar factory open in Linares and fudged around with "modernizing" the tax system, they aren't really doing anything pro business and while still holding at 51 percent pointsapproval , they already feel like a government that is losing their mojo. They are tinkering around the edges with crime and justice and other things, I wouldn't go so far as Bachalet lite but they are certainly not living up to the high expectations.
Of course its far too early to know what will happen in the next couple of years but it's certainly not going to be tiempos mejores like was promised but of course anything's better than what there was last term.
Its just going to be boring old Piñera and the same old baggage he has always had and all his old cronies trying to play it safe in the middle ground while pleasing nobody. It wouldn't take much to shift Chile to a nationalist populist right winger type especially, as the world will probably be in a recession by then too.
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Re: Amazon to go to Colombia....Not Chile

Post by Space Cat » Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:47 am

41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:27 am
Also FA was just a protest vote against Guiller they won't be as credible next time .
They are a protest vote against the aged and corrupted politicians from NM or whatever it's called today. I bet FA is getting 30%+ and a second round in 2021 if they can keep from petty fights and acting like they're still leading students (this is hard for them but not impossible).
41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:27 am
Its just going to be boring old Piñera and the same old baggage he has always had and all his old cronies trying to play it safe in the middle ground while pleasing nobody.
Piñera can't be re-elected. Since voters constantly go for centrists, the middle ground probably looks pleasing enough for them.
41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:27 am
It wouldn't take much to shift Chile to a nationalist populist right winger type
Chileans are literally #1 in not trusting politicians. Right-wing voters are better organized but still a minority and I don't see centrists swinging to an authoritarian right-wing candidate for economic reasons.

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Re: Amazon to go to Colombia....Not Chile

Post by 41southchile » Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:27 am

Space Cat wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:47 am
41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:27 am
Also FA was just a protest vote against Guiller they won't be as credible next time .
They are a protest vote against the aged and corrupted politicians from NM or whatever it's called today. I bet FA is getting 30%+ and a second round in 2021 if they can keep from petty fights and acting like they're still leading students (this is hard for them but not impossible).
41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:27 am
Its just going to be boring old Piñera and the same old baggage he has always had and all his old cronies trying to play it safe in the middle ground while pleasing nobody.
Piñera can't be re-elected. Since voters constantly go for centrists, the middle ground probably looks pleasing enough for them.
41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:27 am
It wouldn't take much to shift Chile to a nationalist populist right winger type
Chileans are literally #1 in not trusting politicians. Right-wing voters are better organized but still a minority and I don't see centrists swinging to an authoritarian right-wing candidate for economic reasons.

Image
Yeah its just a working theory, and as I say maybe its way too early to call, but let's re visit in 2 /2.5 years time. And see what's happening. There's a few other reasons but this is my call atm let's see how it all plays out and see .

Just on your points though, the latest polling has FA on 26 % , but being the left they will probably self destruct with more internal conflicts and send their polling lower.
I didnt mean Pinera would be elected again, but if they put up one of his cronies again , ( although they maybe able to carry on and hold "centerists " if they put up someone like Alfredo Moreno and he does a half decent job in his role in the near future) they will loose right vote though to JAK, and possibly as well as popular vote, the populist poorer vote can be swung right too, all you have to do is play up the crime situation, immigration and this governments austerity measures with a shit tonne of immigrants placing strain on public infrastructure like health and education,will cause issues, etc.
The middle ground doesnt look pleasing, especially for the middle classes when wages are not keeping up with cost of living when crime is not being tackled efficiently,its not going to be that hard to swing enough to the right, especially if places like Brazil start doing well under Bolsonaro .
I didnt see where it says Chile is number one in not trusting their politicians it says they dont feel afflilated or close to any political party, which shows a huge opportunity, but only if other factors outside of JAK hands play into his favour, there is enough to swing his way if, and a big if, other things happen. Put a note and lets talk in 2020 or 2021.
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Re: Amazon to go to Colombia....Not Chile

Post by admin » Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:09 am

come on?

colombians are the world record holding logistical master minds. if a package, regardless of what is in it, has to get somewhere, call the colombians.

i also understood there were two amazon projects. one was a data center hub, the other logistics center for products. not sure about that.

as for the rest of this conversation, i have no frigen clue what you people are talking about. you lost me.
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Re: Amazon to go to Colombia....Not Chile

Post by 41southchile » Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:14 am

admin wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:09 am
come on?

colombians are the world record holding logistical master minds. if a package, regardless of what is in it, has to get somewhere, call the colombians.

i also understood there were two amazon projects. one was a data center hub, the other logistics center for products. not sure about that.

as for the rest of this conversation, i have no frigen clue what you people are talking about. you lost me.
Yeah that's true about the Colombians as far as I understand the data hub is still being considered.
As for the rest of the conversation Haha yeah it was a bit of a wild theory, but I guess I am seeing early stages of the expectations of Piñeras big promises kind of not being met and I fear and what I am reading and hearing is he has set expectations too high and is trying to be everyone's friend but already growth expectations and other promises are starting to be pulled back and it's going to be closer to 2.5 % growth next year, admitadly things are happening that are out of his control on the global stage. on another aside the central bank may have moved too soon in raising interest rates yesterday. But as I say far too early to tell, but piñera govt is in the same position as MB at same time in 2014 and her government only went down from there , they need a total reset or it's going to be lost opportunities and they won't be back in 2021. But who knows where we will be in 2020, there maybe bigger world problems going on than what's happening in Chilito.
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Re: Amazon to go to Colombia....Not Chile

Post by fraggle092 » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:10 am

My guesses:
Location, both geographical and also on the global fibre network.
Energy costs.
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Re: Amazon to go to Colombia....Not Chile

Post by Space Cat » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:20 am

41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:27 am
Just on your points though, the latest polling has FA on 26 % , but being the left they will probably self destruct with more internal conflicts and send their polling lower.
Polling was around 12-15% before the first round. Local polls are horrible in reaching out to younger people.
41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:27 am
if they put up someone like Alfredo Moreno and he does a half decent job in his role in the near future
Joaquín Lavín's actions look like here's running in 2021.
41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:27 am
all you have to do is play up the crime situation, immigration and this governments austerity measures with a shit tonne of immigrants placing strain on public infrastructure like health and education,will cause issues, etc.
But that's what Piñera already did. Still the core of his program were middle-class economical improvements and not immigration. Unless we're getting another uncontrolled immigration wave, I don't see people worried about it more than about their wallets.
41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:27 am
I didnt see where it says Chile is number one in not trusting their politicians it says they dont feel afflilated or close to any political party
There was also a poll from The Economist where LatAm countries are incredibly low on trust.

But yes, let's wait 3 years and see. From my research, the average Chilean voter is pragmatic (admin's "what have you done for me lately") and one can't win election by pure ideology, especially the extreme right ideas that would cut public spending. It may be useful to do in Brazil and Argentina but definitely not in Chile.

Unless something really big happens in the country/world, my bet for the first round is 14-16% JAK and 28-32% FA candidate.

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Re: Amazon to go to Colombia....Not Chile

Post by 41southchile » Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:09 pm

Space Cat wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:20 am
41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:27 am
Just on your points though, the latest polling has FA on 26 % , but being the left they will probably self destruct with more internal conflicts and send their polling lower.
Polling was around 12-15% before the first round. Local polls are horrible in reaching out to younger people.
41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:27 am
if they put up someone like Alfredo Moreno and he does a half decent job in his role in the near future
Joaquín Lavín's actions look like here's running in 2021.
41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:27 am
all you have to do is play up the crime situation, immigration and this governments austerity measures with a shit tonne of immigrants placing strain on public infrastructure like health and education,will cause issues, etc.
But that's what Piñera already did. Still the core of his program were middle-class economical improvements and not immigration. Unless we're getting another uncontrolled immigration wave, I don't see people worried about it more than about their wallets.
41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:27 am
I didnt see where it says Chile is number one in not trusting their politicians it says they dont feel afflilated or close to any political party
There was also a poll from The Economist where LatAm countries are incredibly low on trust.

But yes, let's wait 3 years and see. From my research, the average Chilean voter is pragmatic (admin's "what have you done for me lately") and one can't win election by pure ideology, especially the extreme right ideas that would cut public spending. It may be useful to do in Brazil and Argentina but definitely not in Chile.

Unless something really big happens in the country/world, my bet for the first round is 14-16% JAK and 28-32% FA candidate.
Yeah fair enough, we will have to wait and see, but just think about this:
if someone had to said to you 10 years ago, " in 2018, Donald Trump will be president and basically will give despots a free reign and isolate America from its allies when it needs them most, and that people will be openly talking about the possibility of a war between China and the US, that England will be bogged down in a political quagmire because they wanted to throw out their relationship with the EU, that many countries will be abandoning democracy and democratic institutions in favour of authoritarian rule, that Venezuela will have a humanitarian crisis and the country will be screwed and the list goes on" would you have believed them ? Some may of believed it , but most would have said "not a chance "
. Point is don't rule anything out, don't get me wrong I love being here and it's gonna be a lot better place to be than many other places in the future due to its relative isolation and distance from shit .
I think personally you are giving FA a bit to much credit and don't think they can build much on what they did last time in fact they will probably go backwards.
I also think Jauqin Lavin is a sad joke if he didn't make it in 2003 or whenever it was, you think he will make it 20 years later?
You don't think they vote ideologically? What got so many votes for Piñera in 2nd round was the Chilezuela analogy no one wants to go down that track despite all the freebies an bonos from MB and crew, people saw the country under 4 more years of socialist rule and got scared.
In the Lakes Region Chile for 6 years. It looks like New Zealand in some ways, and is nearly at the bottom of the world too, but there the similarities end.

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Re: Amazon to go to Colombia....Not Chile

Post by Space Cat » Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:42 pm

41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:09 pm
if someone had to said to you 10 years ago...
Chile doesn't have the political dynamics and pressing problems of the US or UK. Meanwhile, France has lots of issues with immigration and integration but even there a JAK-like candidate couldn't get enough votes.

So I believe it's really culture-dependent and we should look only at the local trends.
41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:09 pm
I think personally you are giving FA a bit to much credit and don't think they can build much on what they did last time in fact they will probably go backwards.
Nah, no credit, they're quite lame so far but Nueva Mayoria is just stuck in the 00s or even 90s ideologically. So if we are getting a left-wing government in 3 years, I'd prefer the fresh lefties to the expired ones.
41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:09 pm
I also think Jauqin Lavin is a sad joke if he didn't make it in 2003 or whenever it was, you think he will make it 20 years later?
A whole lot of historical Chilean presidents "didn't make it" for over a decade... until they did. Nowadays Lavín is doing really well on social media that didn't exist in 2003.
41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:09 pm
You don't think they vote ideologically? What got so many votes for Piñera in 2nd round was the Chilezuela analogy no one wants to go down that track despite all the freebies an bonos from MB and crew, people saw the country under 4 more years of socialist rule and got scared.
"Chilezuela" was more of a meme than anything. Bonos weren't reaching the middle class while Piñera was constantly talking about the improvements for the middle class and self-employed. Voters here aren't stupid to elect a president from a party that tanked the economy in the last few years, so they don't need to be "scared" much.

Not to mention Guillier looking and talking like his mom sent him to participate in the election.

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