The trade wars, they have begun

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at46
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by at46 » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:59 pm

There's also quite a bit of brain drain happening in IT, in my opinion. Coz it's obviously one of the more in demand professions 'over there' and there's nothing much to do for the smart ones over here.

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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:47 pm

Space Cat wrote:
Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:52 pm
To be fair, so called non-programming programmers are frequent even in the Silicon Valley. There is a passionate and professional circle of Chilean developers but it’s really small because of the country’s population and broken education system. Argentina and Brazil are much more visible as “IT hubs” internationally just due to their population sizes.

I dont know what the exact stats are, but they are probably pretty close to this.

Truly technicaly minded people per 100, 000 of population something like say 10000 people.

Amongst them, number of people that have the motive and opertunity in chile, say 10% so 1000 people.

Mpst of those will be drained in to other fields, so 10% of that ends up in the field of computers, 100 people

Of those, most endup doing bullshit jobs that pay nothing and do not advance their skills.

So in a population of 18 million people, you produce somewhere between 18 and ZERO truly gifted techinical people.

After 20 years, in chile, i tend to think it is closer to zero (at least that are still living in chile).

For sanity check on my numbers, look how much money and time it took to produce a semi- respectiable football team in chile, and chile spent billiind to do it.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by Space Cat » Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:03 am

admin wrote:
Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:47 pm
I dont know what the exact stats are, but they are probably pretty close to this.

Truly technicaly minded people per 100, 000 of population something like say 10000 people.

Amongst them, number of people that have the motive and opertunity in chile, say 10% so 1000 people.

Mpst of those will be drained in to other fields, so 10% of that ends up in the field of computers, 100 people

Of those, most endup doing bullshit jobs that pay nothing and do not advance their skills.

So in a population of 18 million people, you produce somewhere between 18 and ZERO truly gifted techinical people.

After 20 years, in chile, i tend to think it is closer to zero (at least that are still living in chile).

For sanity check on my numbers, look how much money and time it took to produce a semi- respectiable football team in chile, and chile spent billiind to do it.
I’ve met some but I’m attending events where they gather.

Check Crunchbase: 750 tech companies from Chile (18m pop.), 870 from Czech Republic (10.5m pop.), 5600 from the Netherlands (17m pop.).

So there is some tech power but it’s at least 50% smaller than it should be (Czech Republic is at similar development level).

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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:52 am

Here is a worrying one. Number of retired people filing for bankruptsy.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/bankin ... ricans?amp
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:50 am

You know there is one card to play for china, that would totaly burn trump and the u.s., that would probably leave the u.s. with nothing to complain about: totaly open their markets to foreign investors.

What would that look like? Not sure.

But it would allow the chinese to fully float their currency, as trillions of dollars would flow in, to more than offset any out flows.

It would most likly be a case of, be careful what you ask for, as a massive, final, flow of manufacturing jobs and companies exit the u.s. for good. Never to return.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:35 am

Amazing. I just watched a stock anyalis on bloomberg, in one sentence try to say that chile was just like turkey and argentina and had 30% interest rates.

Mind blowing.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:56 am

The Euro and BRICS currencies of Brrasil, Russia, South Africa.

Will post updates as this new crisis unfolds.

Screen Shot 2018-08-12 at 10.53.43 AM.jpg
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by mem » Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:20 pm

admin wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:35 am
Amazing. I just watched a stock anyalis on bloomberg, in one sentence try to say that chile was just like turkey and argentina and had 30% interest rates.

Mind blowing.
Bahahahaha. They probably thought Chile was in Europe too.

It is so exasperating to see people mindlessly lumping Chile in with Argentina or Venezuela or Brazil, or making broad sweeping statements about the whole of South America knowing only what they have read in the most salacious headlines regarding Argentina/Venezuela/Brazil.

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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:57 pm

Yea monday should be intersting.

Turkey crisis is spreading in to the euro.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:01 pm

Thanks giving came early for this Turkey.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1KX0SP
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:09 am

wooo, it is amazing how the moron politicians that crash their own EM economies, almost all have the same talking points.

Turkey's president saying things like:

External forces are out to crash our economy.
interest rates are the enemy (along with no such things as inflation does not exist)
various nationalistic calls to support the local currency, that is dropping like a rock.

Sure I forgot a bunch

But, they are the same things you hear out of Maduro, etc.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:03 pm

Well, guess interest rate hikes are not helping argentina. They raised their rates another 5% to 45% today.

I really dont get the jacking interest rates to as an emergency measure to stop the fx slide, while failing to reform the economy in all the ways that are chaising dollars out of the economy. Argentina has had several years to unwind fernanda's mess, but insist on not doing it.
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