The trade wars, they have begun

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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:50 pm

I would be very suprised if there is even one fortune 500 company that does not mention this trade war uncertanty in their next quarterly report as effecting their earnings; even if just in passing to protect their rears in a disclaimer sort of way for the future.

Then also there are probably a lot more companies, leveraged up to their eyeballs on cheap credit that is about to get really expensive with fed interest rate rases, that are happy to blaim it on the trade war.

Probably until the 2018 yearly reports the real numbers start showing up.

In either case, as the coporate warnings start building up, real or imagined, it will likly start turning in to negetive biz sentiment that is very real. That turns in to credit rating downgrades, that turn into higher intest rates, that turns in to stock market corrections, that turns in to .... well you see where this going.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by passport » Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:00 pm

Thought you would be giving some introduction to your new avatar. I liked the old one; it seemed more consistent with your benevolent live self.

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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by nwdiver » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:27 pm

admin wrote:
Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:50 pm
I would be very suprised if there is even one fortune 500 company that does not mention this trade war uncertanty in their next quarterly report as effecting their earnings; even if just in passing to protect their rears in a disclaimer sort of way for the future.

Then also there are probably a lot more companies, leveraged up to their eyeballs on cheap credit that is about to get really expensive with fed interest rate rases, that are happy to blaim it on the trade war.

Probably until the 2018 yearly reports the real numbers start showing up.

In either case, as the coporate warnings start building up, real or imagined, it will likly start turning in to negetive biz sentiment that is very real. That turns in to credit rating downgrades, that turn into higher intest rates, that turns in to stock market corrections, that turns in to .... well you see where this going.

If autos from Canada and Mexico become targets, Ford and GM will take the hit........Trump thinks we export canuckmobiles, eh.....
It's all about the wine.

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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:33 pm

Tesla just raised their prices in china by 20,000 to $30,000 u.s .
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:32 pm

Interesting article on the opertunity for chilean wines in china due to the trade war:
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... torm-cloud

FYI, vina concha y toro is delisting the 12th of this month from the new york stock exchange. Guess it is too expensive to keep up with all the regulations, when only like 3% of their share float is in new york. Fine with me, i was planning to buy more anyway.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:18 pm

Well here is the list of the next round of 200 billion of tarrifs from the u.s.


Warning 205 pages. I am getting on plane with no internet, so seems a better alternative to borring old war and piece.

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/30 ... 2018_0.pdf

Strangly, so far, it seems to be targeting agriculture that as far as i know china does not produce, process, or even if they did it is so toxic no one should touch it let aline eat it.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:24 pm

Oh man, trump is the best president ever, of chile.

He hit almost all agro exports from china (e.g. grape products, sea food products, salmon, etc), and massive list of metals, chemichicals, and it looks like lithium in all forms is on there.

He might have just made chile a rich developed country.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:36 am

Brace for impact.

Looks like they are including almost all forms of copper and all products made of copper.

That said, from what i have read is that most of chinas copper is used domesticaly in china.

Still, lets see if the traders use that as an excuse to dump copper.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:05 pm

Copper down 3%, peso at 652.27
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:52 pm

hey, have a look at this chart and guess what happens next. :lol:
MW-GM233_566013_20180710110801_NS.jpg
MW-GM233_566013_20180710110801_NS.jpg (34.33 KiB) Viewed 212 times
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:57 pm

here is the article this came from. It also pointed out that the fed just needs to raise rates 0.50%, or exactly the 2 rate hikes the fed promises to do before the end of 2018.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inves ... op_stories
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:53 am

You know, i have been wading through hundreds of articles in this trade war, with a few recent exceptiins, there seems to be this crazy denial even among professional investors, that this is going to have any sort of impact on the american economy let alone the global economy.

It is like the semi truck barreling down on you wont kill you if you just use Trump economoc pixie dust and repeat 'fake news' three time while clicking your heals.

The most terrifying thing, it seems even the none-trumpers and critics seem to be doing the same thing.

This trade war is real. The damage, even if the next 200 billiin is stopped, is done. Supply chains all over the world are going to shift, and the u.s. most likly is going to be cut out of the loop due to being too unreliable.

Imagine your running a factory in europe. You need to make sure that you have parts on hand for the next 12 months to 5 years. You have the next 3 to 6 months to decide where to sign that contract. Rather than renewing your contract for red widgets from the states, your going at least buy some job protection by sourcing an alternative somewhere else in the event something else happens. That doubt, will stay their for years, even if this all blows over relatively soon.
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