Thoughts on the State of Europe

[admin]

If I had to sum it up, I would basically say this is not a west vs. east, or even a russia vs. U.S. sort of war.

It is more like a developing nations vs. developed nation sort of war, with resources as the core turf rather than geographical control (although it is geographical in so far as the geography contains the resources).

You have the big countries, and big alliances, but also the various small countries that trying to keep mostly neutral. You have the obvious russia vs. the U.S. vs. China thing. However there are also the small fry. For example, Chile is totally playing friend to everyone. You got the old school alliances, such as Cuba and Venezuela with China and Russia. You got the middle east countries, all aligning one way or the other; sometimes they are all friends, other days they actually shoot at each other. so on, and so on; but, the point is, in this sort of conflict alliances and sides, shift as fast as the internet. One day Russia and china are friends, the next day China is friends with the U.S. against Russia for some reason. European countries have their own pieces on the chessboard. Just it is not always clear that their pieces are working together with other European countries, because they all got their own agendas.

Whatever you want to call this, what is clear, is this is not just some sort of cold war 2.0 going on, with a bunch of intel services playing games. Much more serious than that.

Would someone call what we have now "piece time"?

Think that ended around the late 90's. Somewhere between the end of the cold war, and the rise of the new China and Russia thing. Perhaps post Iraq war 1.0 until a little later, when everyone can sort of look back and say, "yea, there was not a whole lot going on in the world in terms of conflict".

Because if it is not piece time, than what is it?

[britinchile]

Given that there is a distinct lack of armed conflict in what you are describing I would call it peace time. There are a number of wars occurring in the world but that isn't one of them.

[britinchile]

Call it a cyber war, an information war, a resource war, a technological war or whatever you like but a war in the true essence of the word it is not.

[admin]

yea, they use to say that too about the submarine war in the pacific as not being a "real war", well until they sunk something the U.S. gave a dam about. You need big battle ships dueling it out to have a "real war".

Hell, politicians still don't want to call Vietnam or Korea a real war, and they were definitely a lot of big bangs involved.

A conflict being defined as a "real war", is pretty meaningless to the people being shot, displaced, starved, and whatever else. I am sure it is very real to the people in Ukraine, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Nigeria, Philippines, Bangladesh, etc. Those are just the people in immediate danger. How about the millions, although not being shot at directly, are thinking twice about their future plans vs. just getting on with life. The impact of war, is not always about things that go bang. Just the threat of things going bang is sufficient to impact their lives. There are plenty of nervous people in Eastern Europe keeping one eye on Russia, and the other on what Nato is doing / not doing. Most of Africa, Middle east, just about every boarder in Asia, plenty of uncertainty to go around.

[britinchile]

You lost me. Who exactly is at war?

[admin]

Everyone with everyone. Keep up.

[Britkid]

To accept Muslim culture, in a blanket unquestioned fashion, is to endorse intolerance. (Admin)
I think this is a little unfair. I think your comments are more accurate when we look at a literal interpretation of the religion, and more accurate for some countries than others. There are probably many people in muslim countries secretly athiest and embarrassed by many aspects of their culture. Also, there are more moderate countries. I have actually got the Koran on my phone, by the way. I read a bit now and then when I am waiting 5 minutes on a bus or for an appointment. It is not exactly a page turner. I think I have got 20% of the way through.

USA (UK would no doubt follow them) (BritinChile)
I think it's actually debatable whether UK would follow US to war now. Would depend on the war, the opinion of the British people, which gvnment (left/right) was in power at the time. There is a concern that the UK would be scared to lose US trade deals at a time of uncertain EU trade, but they are not just going to follow the US into any war. Not any more.

A country with GDP of Spain or NYC. (Space Cat)
Wow, thanks, I had no idea.I genuinely would have put Russia yes far behind US/China/EU, but I would have thought they would be more towards Germany or Japan sized economy, given the higher population. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... _(nominal)
I think Russia's "strength" as mentioned by another poster is, rather than a rational one, an emotional strength where people feel good about themselves because of some patriotic slogan and because they got Crimea and so on. It's also a might makes right rather than an ethical strength. They have a lot of nuclear weapons but don't exactly have much thought, business or science leaders. Long term, their economy can't be all about gas and oil, since a lot of their customers are going to transition to renewable energy. They may even have a much more short term issue if gas and oil prices fall a lot. So, what's the plan? As long as the leaders are only in it for themselves and don't really care, there will be no plan.

[eeuunikkeiexpat]

It's mainly about the thrashing around in all areas military, economic, technology, media with manipulated legal and non-legal justifications of an Empire on its last legs with just nuke and world reserve currency status as the sticks to hold back an irreversible transition to a multi-polar world. So yes, a dangerous time of transition and there may indeed be a gigantic shooting version of the many types of warfare now going on before it is all said and done

[nikotromus]

Anyone here think the Empire is going to quietly into the night in the midst of the death of king dollar?

Trump just told the press this is the calm before the storm. If it's gonna hit the fan, better sooner than later. Please baby Jesus let it happen before I've given up on the second world and head back there.

[britinchile]

Admin, everyone is not at war with everyone - just like your ‘close encounters’ with terrorism on your trip, you are being overly dramatic. It’s quite hard to ‘keep up’ with the nonsensical rubbish you write.

[nikotromus]

Dang that's a bit harsh. Us expats gotta love each other, right?

Wouldn't you say that the U.S. and Russia are already in a proxy war over Syria, with the U.S. backing the 'moderate rebels' </snicker> and the Russians backing Assad? There are real bullets and bombs and all sorts of nasty things being flung about over there. Then there's the Ukraine, where Western backed money financed the revolution right on the footsteps of Russia's border (I think the argument could easily be made that we're on the doorstep of the next great war). Not to mention, how many countries did the U.S. bomb last year? I believe it was 7. Not sure how many it's been so far this year, but the year aint over yet.

There's plenty of live fire out there. How about a compromise: "The U.S. is at war with everyone" There - fixed it.

[Space Cat]

They have a lot of nuclear weapons but don't exactly have much thought, business or science leaders. Long term, their economy can't be all about gas and oil, since a lot of their customers are going to transition to renewable energy. They may even have a much more short term issue if gas and oil prices fall a lot. So, what's the plan? As long as the leaders are only in it for themselves and don't really care, there will be no plan.

There's no plan. The Russian culture is deeply fatalistic and eschatological (see the literature). There's literally no vision of any kind future in modern Russia, only clinging to epic historical times like the WW2 or the imperial period.

The negative selection in the government and the overall inertia are too strong to take a turn from the direction towards crisis.