chile's migration crisis

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fraggle092
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by fraggle092 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:33 am

mem wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:38 pm

Now now...the great chilean hope is that Pinera will make chile great again and no chilean would dare vote back in a socialist clown (even a smooth one) .
What great Chilean hope?
Chileans can exhibit a brutal disregard for others, and don't care about anything else as long as they personally are doing OK. You may have seen this statement from a union leader in La Escondida when asked not to persist with the massive CLP $25.000.000 bono (apart from the salary increases and other benefits) that the miners are demanding, as it would harm the Chilean economy:
Continuó Tapia: “Y me dijo ‘no pueden hacer eso. Van a cagar al país’ (carcajadas de los asistentes a la asamblea). Lo único que atinó a decir fue van a cagar al país, y ¿quién ve por nosotros? Entonces, ¡que se vaya el país a la chucha!”, añadió entre aplausos.
Yeah, a real patriot that one.

I'm all right, Jack.
mem wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:38 pm
...in light of the amazing improvements Pinera made by the time his term elapses....
Unless you are being ironic, I'm afraid you are overestimating the extents of presidential power.
Après moi, le déluge

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:30 am

There was an interview of people in a park in sweaden about the economy, the country, and all the new migrants.

There just happened to be a chilean exchange student there, and they asked her what she thought of sweaden.

Guess what she said?

Sweaden is incrediable. The goverment was really good at paying people lots of money.

Like 20 seconds, right before she opened her mouth i just knew something like that was coming.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:33 am

But, on the bright side, it is probably what seperates chile from the rest of latin america. They are so totaly worried about themselves the stupid national socialist crap that sinks the rest of latin america never can get a proper proper foothold. The socialist are too self-centered capitialist for it to work.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:51 pm

Well bachelet was confirmed by the u.n. as the head of himan rights.

Meanwhile the venezuelans keep on coming to chile, while more and more countries are closing their borders to venezuela.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1KU2H0

The numbers are so off the charts i am not sure anyone knows how many venezuelans are realy leaving. One stat i heard today is 4,000 a day were crossing in to equador.

Colombia is doing the immigration regularizatiin thing for venezuelans also.

https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2018/ ... -colombia/
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:06 pm

So colombia is reporting 870,000 venezuelans in just 15 months. What have they been taking since 1999?
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:06 pm

So colombia is reporting 870,000 venezuelans in just 15 months. What have they been taking since 1999?
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:14 pm

The numbers estimated by the u.n. recently call it something like 4 million venezuelans have left since 1999.

I have a hard time buying that number, based on just flows over the last few years in to the latin america.

Couple of back of the napkin numbers off the top my head:

200 or 300 thousand in chile.

850,000 in colombia.

Brazil is probably similar to colombia or even more.

Peru is probably more than chile, say an easy 500,000 or more.

Equador was estimate at 30,000 a month, so they are probably pushing a million too.

Panama? Miami?

Point is, you can get past 4 million people pretty fast, just with recent numbers.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:21 pm

Now the question is, just how destabilizing that sort migration move turns out be, when you add the central american migrations. We got some instability possibly coming in brazil and argentina with elections and economic errors.

If there is a threat to chilean stability over the next decade or so, it will the be instability of the neighbors.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by tiagoabner » Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:37 am

admin wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:14 pm
(...)
850,000 in colombia.

Brazil is probably similar to colombia or even more.
(...)
There are currently about 85000 Venezuelans living in Brazil, with 12000 having moved before the current immigration crisis. Although I like to bash on how full of bureaucracy and inneficiency the Brazilian government is, they do have solid-ish immigration stats. Most Venezuelans I know mentioned that they didn't move to Brazil due to the language & cultural barrier, as well as the geographical inconvenience. Brazil's border with the Venezuela is through the jungle, which makes any trip take way longer than it would take to go elsewhere.

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:48 am

Glad you showed up to comment on this.

I could see lanuage making brazil a second choice for venezuelans, but portugies is not all that diffrent from spanish. I was there and in three days and was able to read the local news, watch local shows, get cab, order dinner, etc. Never had portugies lesson in my life. It is at least easier than chilean spanish.

After watching the implosion of turkey on friday, i got to thinking about who might be the next EM grey / black swan in the neighnorhood (that is suffiently big to worry about): Brazil.

The EM bond vultures are circling, looking for their next meal, and no country is immune right now (they got chile in their sights). Any election in an EM market acts like a dinner bell to them.

That upcoming election in brazil spooks me. If brazil had a major economic crisis, sufficently big to cause a migration crisis, well, we are all screwed. It is the 10,000 pound gurrilla in the mist of south america both in terms of economy and population. Even though chile has limited direct trade, it is still a lot. Probably the secondary trade relationship is more important for chile.

Seen a survey recently that something like 57% of the richest brazilians were planning or would like to leave brazil. Which probably great for whomever gets them and their money, but also the rich are normally the first to leave when there is instability, simply because they can. Everyine else leaves later.

At least brazil, if there was a major outflow, comes with a lot of well educated and high skill people. Which from chile's perspective, economicaly, much easier to import highly educated people than to try and grow them at home. I could see chile being a major destination for brazilans simply because there are already a lpt of brazilans, establoshed immigration policies for brazilans, and a lot of brazilans have been here on vacation.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by mem » Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:09 pm

admin wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:48 am
Glad you showed up to comment on this.

I could see lanuage making brazil a second choice for venezuelans, but portugies is not all that diffrent from spanish. I was there and in three days and was able to read the local news, watch local shows, get cab, order dinner, etc. Never had portugies lesson in my life. It is at least easier than chilean spanish.

After watching the implosion of turkey on friday, i got to thinking about who might be the next EM grey / black swan in the neighnorhood (that is suffiently big to worry about): Brazil.

The EM bond vultures are circling, looking for their next meal, and no country is immune right now (they got chile in their sights). Any election in an EM market acts like a dinner bell to them.

That upcoming election in brazil spooks me. If brazil had a major economic crisis, sufficently big to cause a migration crisis, well, we are all screwed. It is the 10,000 pound gurrilla in the mist of south america both in terms of economy and population. Even though chile has limited direct trade, it is still a lot. Probably the secondary trade relationship is more important for chile.

Seen a survey recently that something like 57% of the richest brazilians were planning or would like to leave brazil. Which probably great for whomever gets them and their money, but also the rich are normally the first to leave when there is instability, simply because they can. Everyine else leaves later.

At least brazil, if there was a major outflow, comes with a lot of well educated and high skill people. Which from chile's perspective, economicaly, much easier to import highly educated people than to try and grow them at home. I could see chile being a major destination for brazilans simply because there are already a lpt of brazilans, establoshed immigration policies for brazilans, and a lot of brazilans have been here on vacation.
Well, I don't know that this counts as a major outflow, but at least according to this article the "elite" are fleeing Brazil. Seems Portugal is one of the top location, no doubt because of the language.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08- ... -and-chaos

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by tiagoabner » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:09 am

admin wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:48 am
I could see lanuage making brazil a second choice for venezuelans, but portugies is not all that diffrent from spanish. I was there and in three days and was able to read the local news, watch local shows, get cab, order dinner, etc. Never had portugies lesson in my life. It is at least easier than chilean spanish.
Actually, it's much harder for a native Spanish speaker to learn Portuguese than the opposite. Spanish has less vowel sound when compared to Portuguese, so they have a lot of trouble when learning the language. A good way to compare is an English speaker learning Arabic: there are sounds that simply aren't used in the other language. IE. Spanish speakers have a lot of trouble differentiating between the Portuguese words for granpa and grandma, which are avô ("o" as in "ahold") and avó ("o" as in "force"). In fact, the "force o" is entirely absent from Spanish.

Also, it's easy to forget that Brazil is almost the size of the continental USA: it's f***ing huge. There are large cultural differences throughout the country and not everyone is used to dealing with foreigners, specially outside of touristic areas, border towns/states and huge metropolises.

Brazil had multiple finanial crysis in the last century or so, but there simply isn't a culture of moving to other countries among the lower classes. Yes, upper-middle to upper classes have moved out, and will continue to do so, but the financial and cultural barrier is usually too steep. Also, Brazilian culture is heavily influenced by American culture, so the top immigration destinations are the USA, seen as a "get rich fast, American dream all the way" destination, and Portugal, which has a couple of agreements with Brazil.

I'm currently living in Portugal because my wife couldn't get used to living in Chile due to her poor language skills, so the language barrier was a huge factor in our case. The fact that we have access to free-ish healthcare, social security "equivalency" and a reasonable income tax rate were also factors in our decision.

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