Housing market situation

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at46
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by at46 » Sat Jan 26, 2019 12:03 pm

admin wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:05 am
colombia however has come a long way, and as long as you don't go looking for trouble, it is probably still safer right now than a lot of less infamous central american countries or even mexico.
Well, this here shows Colombia having practically the same homicide rate as Mexico and Brazil at 25 per 100K. Which is 'only' 9.26 times greater than Chile's at 2.7 per 100K. https://www.insightcrime.org/news/analy ... e-roundup/

at46
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by at46 » Sat Jan 26, 2019 4:36 pm

Also, Colombia is producing record amounts of cocaine these days. What the hell is that woman talking about trying to imply it's all behind when just the amounts seized at borders of various countries blow your mind (84 tones in Panama and 54 tones in Rotterdam/Antwerp in 2017). No wonder the renewed violence - plata o plomo. I think Colombia is actually going down big time. The mood of Colombians living in Chile is pretty sad also when they talk about their home country and no one wants to go back.

Baltimore
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by Baltimore » Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:26 pm

Hey, I was wondering if I could use some of your advice here (sorry if I'm repetitive).

I currently live in a nice apartment in Las Condes and I pay Y for rent. I currently have X of savings invested in a conservative portfolio of bonds and stocks that has been generating, on average, Y every month for the last 2-3 years (my investments already generate enough revenues to pay for my rent every month). I asked my landlord if he would sell and told me that he wouldn't for less than 2.2X approx., similar apartments sell for about that price in this area.

Question: Would it make sense to sell all my portfolio of X bonds and stocks now and give that as a down payment to buy this apartment and get a mortgage for the remaining 1.2X? From my own analysis, the answer is no unless this property will appreciate wildly in the next 20 years or if I put a gigantic value on the peace of mind of knowing that I won't have a landlord telling me that I have to leave.

I'm curious to hear your opinions on this.
Thanks!

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tiagoabner
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by tiagoabner » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:27 pm

You can find do the calculation at this website to get the numeric answer: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... lator.html

There's also a perceived value/perception part to that question, but that's up to you to think about.

mem
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by mem » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:51 pm

Baltimore wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:26 pm
Hey, I was wondering if I could use some of your advice here (sorry if I'm repetitive).

I currently live in a nice apartment in Las Condes and I pay Y for rent. I currently have X of savings invested in a conservative portfolio of bonds and stocks that has been generating, on average, Y every month for the last 2-3 years (my investments already generate enough revenues to pay for my rent every month). I asked my landlord if he would sell and told me that he wouldn't for less than 2.2X approx., similar apartments sell for about that price in this area.

Question: Would it make sense to sell all my portfolio of X bonds and stocks now and give that as a down payment to buy this apartment and get a mortgage for the remaining 1.2X? From my own analysis, the answer is no unless this property will appreciate wildly in the next 20 years or if I put a gigantic value on the peace of mind of knowing that I won't have a landlord telling me that I have to leave.

I'm curious to hear your opinions on this.
Thanks!
Oy, without doing any further calculations or value judgments...I look at it this way:

You would be basically taking all of your liquidity (and recurring cash flow) and giving it to your landlord, while also taking on a significant debt burden.

Do you care not having any liquidity cushion if circumstances in your life go south for whatever/any reason?

at46
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by at46 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:36 pm

I'd try to get a mortgage with a 20% downpayment, so 0.41X, if I really liked the place. It may or may not appreciate going forward, but that's not a big deal if it's something that you really enjoy. I wouldn't put more money in it than necessary to get the mortgage though. Why are you thinking of putting all your savings in it? I mean, you can probably get more bang for your buck by investing in Chilean real estate than what you're making now from the stock market, but it will probably not be the type of place you'll wanna live in yourself. It's a whole different game.

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admin
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by admin » Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:30 am

yea, i suspect the central bank is going to deflate this santiago apartment bubble a bit:

https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-p ... 73309.html
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by admin » Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:51 pm

here in english what us going with the central bank:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chile-li ... 58415.html
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by admin » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:21 am

so the saga of the apartment we rent in santiago gets more interesting.

we talk to our landlord and the agent. they are soooo pissed at the buyer of the apartment, and embarrassed by the whole mess, they wave the 60 day notice and agree to give us our deposit back. essentialy, they are conspiring to burn the new owner back by leaving her wth no renter.

the catch, we had to be out by this friday. which due to the high vacation season exidus from santiago, flights were crazy expensive at the last moment and did not fit the schedule we needed (we had some meetings and things to do also), so we drove. i do that 1000 km drive about once a year, and swear every time i am never going to do it again. with the traffic, this one was even worse. the worse week of the year to drive to and from santiago.

but got it done.

so was talking to the guys at the front desk. there are 5 other apartments for rent in the same building. they were going to send us the prices, but they are no where neer as high as the new owner was trying to get from us. will post them when i get them. i was just curious what the rent prices were. not rentingg another apartment for a while anyway.
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fraggle092
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by fraggle092 » Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:38 am

admin wrote:
Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:21 am
.... essentialy, they are conspiring tp burn the new owner back by leaving her wth no renter....
Serves her right for being greedy. Hope she was relying on the rental income to pay the mortgage.
Après moi, le déluge

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Re: Housing market situation

Post by Britkid » Sat Feb 02, 2019 11:01 pm

Good story admin, thanks for sharing.

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Re: Housing market situation

Post by admin » Sun Feb 03, 2019 6:52 am

yea, just got back to the south. somehow for all the years i have been in chile i have manged to carefully avoid that drive durring the vacation exodus from santiago. i had seen it on t.v., but never experienced it. my wife said 300,000 cars were expected to leave santiago this weekend.

you know those apocalypse movies, where the highways turns in to a parking lot, and there are lines at the gas stations? this was worse.

a 12 hour drive turned in to a 15+ hour drive, including a 20 km long traffic jam near los Los Angeles that lasted 2 hours. i was averging around 60 km an hour, for the first 5 hours (typicaly do that stretch at about 120 to 150). luckily i drove my diesel SUV and was able to skip refueling until i got south of the turn off to pucon / villarica (seems about 80% were heading to pucon). there were copec and other company fuel trucks basicaly chasing the zombie hordes south to keep the gas stations operational.

i got back to frutillar, and was greeted with another parking lot. i'm not going to town until next month after they all leave.

if you live in chile, never ever try to do that. it is just not worth it.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
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From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

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