The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

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fraggle092
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by fraggle092 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:22 pm

41southchile wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:19 pm

I'm no expert and dont want to call the way the vote will go, but I certainty don't see any sign of people stopping investing, either small or large companies, national and international.
Would they be doing that if they thought the sky was going to fall in after April?
I'm no expert either, but from last year....
That was before all the shit happened. Don't believe things have improved since then.
'
Inversión extranjera cae 56% en primer trimestre, la mayor baja en al menos 16 años Emol com.jpg
.
https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/ ... -anos.html
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41southchile
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by 41southchile » Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:32 pm

So this is the English wikipedia link I found.
Does it look right ?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Ch ... plebiscite
I was trying to explain to someone in NZ the other day,
Basically the vote in April is to approve or reject change of the constitution and how the change will be inplemented.
In October there is a vote for who will be on the members of the panel for the constitutional convention change?
Then in 2022 there is a vote to decide whether to accept those changes or stick with the old constitution?
Is that right? Just want to make sure I know what I'm talking about.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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41southchile
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by 41southchile » Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:36 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:22 pm
41southchile wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:19 pm

I'm no expert and dont want to call the way the vote will go, but I certainty don't see any sign of people stopping investing, either small or large companies, national and international.
Would they be doing that if they thought the sky was going to fall in after April?
I'm no expert either, but from last year....
That was before all the shit happened. Don't believe things have improved since then.
'
Inversión extranjera cae 56% en primer trimestre, la mayor baja en al menos 16 años Emol com.jpg
.
https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/ ... -anos.html
2019 was a record growth year for Foreign investment growing 78 percent
https://www.eleconomistaamerica.cl/econ ... -2019.html
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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fraggle092
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by fraggle092 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:52 pm

41southchile wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:36 pm

2019 was a record growth year for Foreign investment growing 78 percent
https://www.eleconomistaamerica.cl/econ ... -2019.html

Perhaps they are "investing" to repair all the damage :)

Government statistics. "Massaged", just like the unemployment figures were.
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41southchile
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by 41southchile » Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:09 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:52 pm
41southchile wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:36 pm

2019 was a record growth year for Foreign investment growing 78 percent
https://www.eleconomistaamerica.cl/econ ... -2019.html

Perhaps they are "investing" to repair all the damage :)

Government statistics. "Massaged", just like the unemployment figures were.
I still want to know how I can invest in roller doors or smashproof glass etc.

As for the stats Possibly , as they say , there are three kinds if lies, lies, damned lies and statistics.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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fraggle092
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by fraggle092 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:06 pm

Here's something for you all to pick at :)

I'm not an economist, but my take on Chile is that as long as the Mining industry ticks on undisturbed, the economy will be mainly OK. That industry, already semi-automated and employing small numbers of highly-paid workers is the motor of Chile, bringing in the Dollars to pay for all the Chinese goods that Chileans are so fond of, and providing many thousands of additional jobs in support industries.

The other export industries, forestry, fruit, wine and fish farming contribute, but Copper is still king. Every other activity here, with the possible, minor exception of Tourism, doesn't bring money into the country. In the face of disappearing national manufacturing industry, what is going to happen in the future given a society with ever-increasing material expectations?

Bachelet's educational reforms guaranteeing University education seems to me to be the perfect medium for producing a great many Arts and Humanities graduates who will never work in their chosen field - a permanent pool of the discontented - educated enough to expect better in a country too small to support them, prime "Activist" material that will probably eventually end up in the already-swollen and radicalized Bureaucracy. We have already seen the first crop of politicians who have gone straight from college politics to government. The results so far have not been encouraging.

Its worth remembering that Professor Abimael Guzman successfully indoctrinated his students in Peru to form Sendero Luminoso, which resulted in a virtual civil war with 70.000 deaths- dwarfing the much-more-widely publicized Chilean golpe. No,that couldn't happen here, maybe the "activists" will just continue with their peaceful manifestations....

This country is sleepwalking into the future. There's no planning continuity from government to government, with a political class that lives in an isolated bubble, getting their information at second or third hand, and producing badly-drafted laws based on the issues of the moment. Maybe that worked in the past, but Chile is more complicated these days and demands much more professional and honest leadership than it has been getting lately.

Chile does have talented and honest people. If I were one of them, :) I would be looking to get out of the place ASAP if things continue as they are going.
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:58 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:06 pm
Its worth remembering that Professor Abimael Guzman successfully indoctrinated his students in Peru to form Sendero Luminoso, which resulted in a virtual civil war with 70.000 deaths- dwarfing the much-more-widely publicized Chilean golpe. No,that couldn't happen here, maybe the "activists" will just continue with their peaceful manifestations....
After reading that, I need to recount another anecdote. My landlord and first landlord in Chile was a commie/socialist who was forced to leave Chile during the Pino period. He was a supporter of Peru's Fujimori who was the first President to connect to the indigenous population. Many on the international left would label him "Chinochet".

Things are more complex here than meets the eye.

I'm sure Donnybrook has tons of stories to tell about that very turbulent period in Peru.
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by admin » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:11 pm

41southchile wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:19 pm
admin wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:08 am
There are two really annoying myths that Chileans like to delude themselves with (and gringos they meet) that are very similar to their "corruption myth".

1. That by virtue of being issued a RUT number at birth, they somehow are experts in the law in Chile.

2. That by virtue of having been issued an RUT number at birth, and having once gone on vacation to Pucon or Vina as a kid, they "know" their entire country (in a geographic / cultural sense of "know").

Thus, why I say the vast majority of Chileans know nothing about how their country functions legally/ politically / beucraticaly nor do they "know" their country geographically / culturally.
Be that as it may, there is still a vote coming up in April. Maybe , which was my friends point , a vote for change will give everyone an actual chance to become informed through the debate and discussion that will go on, (and it will go on, for years probably) Because with the amount of ignorance you claim exists in the country at the moment there is no way people can become educated in 2 months especially with all the yelling and screaming/scaremongering coming from both/all sides.
I'm no expert and dont want to call the way the vote will go, but I certainty don't see any sign of people stopping investing, either small or large companies, national and international.
Would they be doing that if they thought the sky was going to fall in after April?
My wife is getting really annoyed with me.

Every time we encounter someone doing something super stupid now in Chile, I am quick to point out to her, "that is the person that is going to decide on a new constitution".

:lol:
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by admin » Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:32 pm

well, who needs corruption, when you have massive government waist and inefficiency.

the country is just pissing billions of dollars in to the wind everywhere you look; much of it just window dressing.

everything from millions of dollars spent importing Haitians and syrians, to buying police dodge interceptors (in a country where high speed chases are almost never done), to bell helicopters flying up and down the lake beaches for no good reason (what are they going drop a rescue diver in 2 meters of water), etc, etc.

perhaps chile does need some good old corruption to get things properly bureaucratically lubricated and moving.
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fraggle092
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by fraggle092 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:47 am

admin wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:32 pm
the country is just pissing billions of dollars in to the wind everywhere you look; much of it just window dressing.
The overpaid radicalized bureaucracy, as represented by the CUT and others is a huge permanent drain on the economy.

Here's Communist CUT leader Barbara Figueroa, insulting Bachelet's finance minister, Rodrigo Valdés in Congress after he refused to give in to their demands for more money a few years ago. Maricón, and Hijo de Puta were among the non-PC terms employed by this specimen of the new Chile on that occasion, and she represents imho everything that is wrong with this country. She wants the new constitution btw.
.
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fraggle092
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by fraggle092 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:02 am

Re the bureaucracy:

Our Accountant, now retired from public service, worked in the regional prison service financial administration. At the time he left, his entire department consisted of 8 persons, and had been that size for many years.

The last time he went back to visit, that same department now employs over 30, including 2 Lawyers and a Public Relations person.

Mas gobierno was one of Bachelet's aims, and in this at least, she succeeded.
And they all know on which side their bread is buttered, think "peaceful protesters" here.

https://www.eldinamo.com/nacional/2019/ ... ad-social/
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41southchile
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by 41southchile » Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:16 am

admin wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:32 pm
well, who needs corruption, when you have massive government waist and inefficiency.

the country is just pissing billions of dollars in to the wind everywhere you look; much of it just window dressing.

everything from millions of dollars spent importing Haitians and syrians, to buying police dodge interceptors (in a country where high speed chases are almost never done), to bell helicopters flying up and down the lake beaches for no good reason (what are they going drop a rescue diver in 2 meters of water), etc, etc.

perhaps chile does need some good old corruption to get things properly bureaucratically lubricated and moving.
Maybe the Haitians and Syrians were brought in because the likes of agro industry needed cheap employees, maybe the dodge interceptors were imported because the person who procured them went to school with the guy who has the distribution networks, maybe the bell helicopters were part of a cousins business.
From the shittiest little municipal right through to institutions such as the likes of MOP, through to senior ministers and even the president, the country has always bought unnecessary shit from friends and family for public use and hired unnecessary staff because they are family or friends.
Dont call that corruption then, call it what you like, but its definitely a lot more more than simple and innocent waste and inefficiency, the attitudes and culture are rotten throughout the public service and right through the political class.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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