There goes the neighborhood!!! Peru, Ecuador, etc.

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Britkid
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Re: There goes the neighborhood!!! Peru, Ecuador, etc.

Post by Britkid » Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:15 pm

I may be looking at this from a Western angle in saying this, I'm not sure if this question is the right one for South America, but is there any polling data showing what the level of support is for the policy.

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Re: There goes the neighborhood!!! Peru, Ecuador, etc.

Post by admin » Thu Oct 10, 2019 9:19 am

Yea, I have never really thought of the expat crowd that is in Ecuador as our market. Probably had less than half dozen over the years that have moved between chile and Ecuador. I have had more people out of say Thailand than Ecuador.

They tend to be the "how to live in mexico on a dollar a day" crowd. That is an old book from the 60's / 70's, that was probably one of the first expat promo books ever written. now Mexico is not that cheap or stable, so they have moved on to other countries; but, same concepts.

They tend to be that expat crowd looking for super cheap living, and Chile is just way too expensive for them to be attracted to it.

Although, I am sure more than a few questioning now just what sort of deal Ecuador is, if the country blows up in your face every couple of years.

That is a lesson that expats often have to learn the hard way. I learned it in central America, luckily sufficiently early in my life that i had very little to loose.

Essentially, it is the lesson, that just because a place seems cheap and fun to live, does not mean it is a good place to invest the rest of your life, if you do not get to keep what you build due to the crime, corruption, economic crisis, extreme poverty, etc, etc. low cost of living in any particular place, is probably low cost for a very good reason.

If you go all in, what is the long-term end game you can expect? Do you really want to say get to 60 or 70 years old and find out there is no health care system? or, start a buisness, and find out ten years later it has been expropriated by the goverment? how about a sudden jump in energy prices, suddenly making the country not so cheap anymore? how about the natives suddendly turning hostile to foriegners?

basically, all the typical problems of a real developing country; that if you don'thave deep pockets are hard to work around.

most that pull up stakes will simply go back to the United States, or move on to another cheap unstable third-world country; rather than say consider moving to Chile. a few might, and I am starting to get some contacts out of Ecuador, but I don't really expect some sort of expat gringo refugee crisis. different sort of expat crowd.
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Re: There goes the neighborhood!!! Peru, Ecuador, etc.

Post by admin » Thu Oct 10, 2019 9:33 am

I have said this before, but it is worth repeating I think.

In our experience, most of the people that relocate to chile and are happy and successful here, are people that have extensive experience living all over the world; or at least a few other countries. They apreciate Chile for what it is; and don't have unreal expectations about what it not.

That grounded perspective, is probably more important than even having money to make it in Chile.
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Re: There goes the neighborhood!!! Peru, Ecuador, etc.

Post by FrankPintor » Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:15 am

Britkid wrote:
Wed Oct 09, 2019 6:14 pm
It's the Macron mistake again.

What you have got to do is have a national debate explaining why you have to increase the fuel price, go on TV and discuss it, commission polls showing 50% of the population support it, offer to pay a portion of the proceeds to children's hospitals or something, and then do it. (I'm guessing Ecuador's President didn't do any of this? If he did, I didn't see any mention of it in the reports.)

Then if people protest you go on TV and say "all polls show that most people supported this, these protestors are anti democratic. the children's hospitals (or whatever) really need this money".

Then you win.

Once the protests start you have a danger of others joining it and protesting about other things, and then you lose control of it, and support might grow.
Perfect analysis, and no, apparently he didn't do any of this. Incomprehensible, given that he's very well known as a motivational speaker and writer.
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Re: There goes the neighborhood!!! Peru, Ecuador, etc.

Post by 41southchile » Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:34 am

admin wrote:
Thu Oct 10, 2019 9:19 am
Yea, I have never really thought of the expat crowd that is in Ecuador as our market. Probably had less than half dozen over the years that have moved between chile and Ecuador. I have had more people out of say Thailand than Ecuador.

They tend to be the "how to live in mexico on a dollar a day" crowd. That is an old book from the 60's / 70's, that was probably one of the first expat promo books ever written. now Mexico is not that cheap or stable, so they have moved on to other countries; but, same concepts.

They tend to be that expat crowd looking for super cheap living, and Chile is just way too expensive for them to be attracted to it.

Although, I am sure more than a few questioning now just what sort of deal Ecuador is, if the country blows up in your face every couple of years.

That is a lesson that expats often have to learn the hard way. I learned it in central America, luckily sufficiently early in my life that i had very little to loose.

Essentially, it is the lesson, that just because a place seems cheap and fun to live, does not mean it is a good place to invest the rest of your life, if you do not get to keep what you build due to the crime, corruption, economic crisis, extreme poverty, etc, etc. low cost of living in any particular place, is probably low cost for a very good reason.

If you go all in, what is the long-term end game you can expect? Do you really want to say get to 60 or 70 years old and find out there is no health care system? or, start a buisness, and find out ten years later it has been expropriated by the goverment? how about a sudden jump in energy prices, suddenly making the country not so cheap anymore? how about the natives suddendly turning hostile to foriegners?

basically, all the typical problems of a real developing country; that if you don'thave deep pockets are hard to work around.

most that pull up stakes will simply go back to the United States, or move on to another cheap unstable third-world country; rather than say consider moving to Chile. a few might, and I am starting to get some contacts out of Ecuador, but I don't really expect some sort of expat gringo refugee crisis. different sort of expat crowd.
Mind you, rules can change anywhere anytime, even in supposed first world countries.
I can't decide for you. You'll have to make up your own mind.

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Re: There goes the neighborhood!!! Peru, Ecuador, etc.

Post by 41southchile » Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:35 am

admin wrote:
Thu Oct 10, 2019 9:19 am
Yea, I have never really thought of the expat crowd that is in Ecuador as our market. Probably had less than half dozen over the years that have moved between chile and Ecuador. I have had more people out of say Thailand than Ecuador.

They tend to be the "how to live in mexico on a dollar a day" crowd. That is an old book from the 60's / 70's, that was probably one of the first expat promo books ever written. now Mexico is not that cheap or stable, so they have moved on to other countries; but, same concepts.

They tend to be that expat crowd looking for super cheap living, and Chile is just way too expensive for them to be attracted to it.

Although, I am sure more than a few questioning now just what sort of deal Ecuador is now, if the country blows up in your face every couple of years.

That is a lesson that expats often have to learn the hard way. I learned it in central America, luckily sufficiently early in my life that i had very little to loose.

Essentially, it is the lesson, that just because a place seems cheap and fun to live, does not mean it is a good place to invest the rest of your life, if you do not get to keep what you build due to the crime, corruption, economic crisis, extreme poverty, etc, etc. low cost of living in any particular place, is probably low cost for a very good reason.

If you go all in, what is the long-term end game you can expect? Do you really want to say get to 60 or 70 years old and find out there is no health care system? or, start a buisness, and find out ten years later it has been expropriated by the goverment? how about a sudden jump in energy prices, suddenly making the country not so cheap anymore? how about the natives suddendly turning hostile to foriegners?

basically, all the typical problems of a real developing country; that if you don'thave deep pockets are hard to work around.

most that pull up stakes will simply go back to the United States, or move on to another cheap unstable third-world country; rather than say consider moving to Chile. a few might, and I am starting to get some contacts out of Ecuador, but I don't really expect some sort of expat gringo refugee crisis. different sort of expat crowd.
Ah yes the frugal crowd, it's like an obsession to see how cheap they can live. No Chile is not on their radar, although most of the ignorant ones lump it in with the rest of the region and think they should be able to find a piece of land to build on for a couple of thousand dollars.
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Re: There goes the neighborhood!!! Peru, Ecuador, etc.

Post by admin » Thu Oct 10, 2019 5:28 pm

sounds like they have fully lost control of the capital. protesters are grabbing police.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium
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Re: There goes the neighborhood!!! Peru, Ecuador, etc.

Post by ghibli » Thu Oct 10, 2019 9:35 pm

At the risk of receiving all sorts of verbal abuse, i would like to chip in a bit about ecuador. I visited for admittedly only a few weeks when Correa was president. I went to Quito Cuenca Otavalo Guayaquil and the Gallapagoes. Every where I went there was construction, especially roads and bridges. Everywhere I went the people I talked with were cautiously optimistic for the first time in years. There was a lot of pride in the fact that ecuador and ecuadorians were trying to lead the world in protecting the environment - Gaia - protecting the rainforests, the amazon and especially the Gallopagoes. Ecuador has numerous archeological sites which were being restored. This kind of work offered the possibility of expanded tourism plus being helpful for the existing industries. Did you know that ecuador is the world's largest exporter of roses? Good roads help to get to market, a fact which is not lost on chilenos.

More basically, just about every body had enough to eat. Correa gave weekly talks in Quito from the balcony of the gov. office.
Attendance was large and enthusiastic. He answered questions and solicited opinions. Now: Moreno has cut the infrastructure projects. He has cut public workers jobs, and cut the pay of the remaining workers by 20%. Oil drilling is back in the amazon and the big mining companies are sniffing around. The US military is now using the Gallapagoes landing strip. Moreno wants to privatize the pension plan. The american expats I saw
live in isolation in one section of Cuenca. They love their cheap maids and gardeners but they are not part of society. I wonder what they'll do if the neocons privatize their social security.... I know that the world is imperfect and ecuador had a lot more work to do, but everything which had been acheived is now being destroyed. I don't blame them for rioting. The sooner Moreno is gone, the better.

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Re: There goes the neighborhood!!! Peru, Ecuador, etc.

Post by Britkid » Thu Oct 10, 2019 9:47 pm

Good analysis from admin. Hope people considering moving to Latin America are reading it.

I used to be the frugal sort.

I got quite excited about Ecuador ahead of arriving there in 2004 having read about it and partly because it seemed to be kind of place where for ten dollars you could get a hotel and beer and good food all day. Now, yes, it was cheap, but not quite like that; it wasn't as uber cheap as I'd expected. When I got there, I got the feeling I'd arrived a little too late for that vs what I'd read and heard. I'm not sure if the exchange rates changed that year or if the dollarization happening just before then had done something but it was more like Peru-level cheap than serious Bolivia level cheapness.

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Re: There goes the neighborhood!!! Peru, Ecuador, etc.

Post by chilly » Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:27 am

ghibli wrote:
Thu Oct 10, 2019 9:35 pm
At the risk of receiving all sorts of verbal abuse, i would like to chip in a bit about ecuador. I visited for admittedly only a few weeks when Correa was president. I went to Quito Cuenca Otavalo Guayaquil and the Gallapagoes. Every where I went there was construction, especially roads and bridges. Everywhere I went the people I talked with were cautiously optimistic for the first time in years. There was a lot of pride in the fact that ecuador and ecuadorians were trying to lead the world in protecting the environment - Gaia - protecting the rainforests, the amazon and especially the Gallopagoes. Ecuador has numerous archeological sites which were being restored. This kind of work offered the possibility of expanded tourism plus being helpful for the existing industries. Did you know that ecuador is the world's largest exporter of roses? Good roads help to get to market, a fact which is not lost on chilenos.

More basically, just about every body had enough to eat. Correa gave weekly talks in Quito from the balcony of the gov. office.
Attendance was large and enthusiastic. He answered questions and solicited opinions. Now: Moreno has cut the infrastructure projects. He has cut public workers jobs, and cut the pay of the remaining workers by 20%. Oil drilling is back in the amazon and the big mining companies are sniffing around. The US military is now using the Gallapagoes landing strip. Moreno wants to privatize the pension plan. The american expats I saw
live in isolation in one section of Cuenca. They love their cheap maids and gardeners but they are not part of society. I wonder what they'll do if the neocons privatize their social security.... I know that the world is imperfect and ecuador had a lot more work to do, but everything which had been acheived is now being destroyed. I don't blame them for rioting. The sooner Moreno is gone, the better.
Correa borrowed billions from China to fund social projects and a seriously failed dam project. About 80% of oil output goes to China for payments through 2024. I would not be surprised if payments go well beyond that. It is true Ecuador has drought-like conditions and an energy shortage but Correa spent the borrowed money to make people happy and borrowed more for a failed Chinese designed/built dam and now Ecuador is in deep financial trouble. Correa made a mess of Ecuador and Moreno has a mess on his hands. I don’t know how it can be fixed, especially since there is so much hate for western countries. I am not supporting Moreno but just saying that anyone following Correa has a mess on their hands.

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Re: There goes the neighborhood!!! Peru, Ecuador, etc.

Post by admin » Sat Oct 12, 2019 11:06 am

yea, the "catcha 22" of countries is to have sustained cheap living for expat type retirement, means you need sustained economic mismanagement and corruption in that country.

The irony is, if you are going to play the catch 22 game, try the original. Italy is probably cheaper than a lot of Latin America right now. It is definitely cheaper than much of Chile.

My wife and i were shocked at how cheap apartments and houses were over looking the Mediterranean. I am sure there is a catch to that catch, and I am pretty sure I would not want to live in Italy full time; but the point is, sometimes "cheap" is not obvious, in a ' pay now or pay later ' sort of way.
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Re: There goes the neighborhood!!! Peru, Ecuador, etc.

Post by admin » Sat Oct 12, 2019 10:27 pm

here is one of the joys, having lived so long in chile, i often forget about the rest of Latin America deals with all day every day: bribes.

friend just came back from a trip to peru today. they rented a car to drive an hour outside lima. were stopped twice in an hour to pay bribes to the police on the highway.

FYI, the friend was born in Argentina. grew up riding around in armoured vehicals in colombia for 20 years, right through the height of the pablo Escobar years, and has basically traveled and lived in every country in south america during their most dangerous moments in the last 40+ years. Her father, was a spy for the allies in brazil durring WWII. Not exactly a wet behind the ears gringo that does not know how to handle it, nor lacking in the built in bribe radar to avoid the situation.

It simply a tax in living in pretty much every other country in Latin America, and really 80% of the world.
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