Chile's Place in Latin America

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at46
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by at46 » Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:16 pm

admin wrote:
Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:39 am
legitimacy

here is an interesting estimate how many more venezuelans could leave in the coming year simply due to lack of food:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front ... venezuela/

8 million is their number based on the fact that if venezuela spent every dollar efficiently earned from oil, to feed the poorest venezuelans, the most basic calories required, they can not feed 8 million people that are most in need.

that is apart from the rest of the populations, corruption, political considerations, etc. 10 million plus, is a real possibility.

and they are going to go where?
Legitimacy is old school, I'm afraid. There's more money to be made in murky waters. Plus, in the case of Ukraine, Russia clearly wants the West to pay for the destruction they caused. So why take it on it's own balance sheet now? Let them fix it up a bit, then maybe.

With the global ultra-consolidation of business, there are only so few super-players left. And they're all PPP - public-private 'partnerships'. What if those 8 million Venezuelan refugees get sent to the US on China-made boats, tricked out in Chinese life-jackets and munching on Russian army rations? What's that going to do to the US politics? How about 20 million?

We have a perfect example of what that looks like from the last few years in Europe.

The US has several super-players, unfortunately, and it's still some way off from full consolidation. Although with the recent moves re. Syria/Pentagon, it's getting there. So there's always temptation for one of these to partner with some other players, like China or Russia, in order to screw up their US competitors. That's where this talk of Venezuela invasion is coming from - one US group uttering threats to another US group. But the actual invasion will have just too many unpredictable consequences, imho, and nobody wants to shoot their balls off.

The US is starving off Venezuelans just to increase maintenance costs to China and Russia. I think all the US players are fine with that. For example, I read on this website that Venezuela could have made 6 billion USD just over the last three months since September had it not been for the US sanctions. That's 780 USD for every one of those 8 million starving Venezuelans that you mentioned, or 260 USD per month, which would have obviously bought them a lot of food.

I don't think we need to argue about whether their economic problems are internal or external. Or do we? Because socialism is bad? :)

https://venezuelanalysis.com/

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41southchile
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by 41southchile » Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:11 pm

Can't remember what thread we were talking about the Brits not being able to stop a drone, but now it appears there wasn't even a drone, what the actual fuck?
https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-tro ... police-say
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Mon Dec 24, 2018 9:07 am

41southchile wrote:
Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:11 pm
Can't remember what thread we were talking about the Brits not being able to stop a drone, but now it appears there wasn't even a drone, what the actual fuck?
https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-tro ... police-say
i seen that tacked on to the last sentence of a report on the bbc last night. no explanation, and the anchor looked like he was trying not to roll his eyes as he said it. i literaly said WTF outloud in suprise.

now, that is finaly a good explanation for why they can not use shot guns on them.

someone pointed that out in a comment to an article too. how do you have thousands and thousands of people stuck at an airport, and no one has cell phone footage of the drones?

yet i heard a phone interview with the guy in charge of the tower, that said there was a drone on the run way as he was speaking to the reporter.

so all the authorities were lying to the media? interupted everyone's holiday for some sort of training mission?
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by Britkid » Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:24 pm

"The suggestion there may not have been any drones at Gatwick Airport was a "miscommunication by police", a government source has told the BBC.
During a conference call between ministers, chaired by Transport Secretary Chris Grayling, it was agreed the 67 drone sightings were legitimate."
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-46670714

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41southchile
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by 41southchile » Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:58 pm

Honestly don't know who to believe, and would have very little confidence in any authorities if I was a brit at the moment, what an embarrassment though, either way.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by nwdiver » Tue Dec 25, 2018 4:09 pm

They wanted to use snipers, great, guys with high penetration rifles, popping off around hundreds of fragile pressure vessels, err airplanes......great idea....
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:20 am

nwdiver wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 4:09 pm
They wanted to use snipers, great, guys with high penetration rifles, popping off around hundreds of fragile pressure vessels, err airplanes......great idea....
I was trying to interpret those statements in the best light, because the alternative was just too stupid.

Guess that is the danger of having a police force that is not aquainted with how guns work.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:45 am

Well, it seems to be a running theme among the new Bolsonaro administration in Brazil that they are going to follow the Chilean economic model. In particular the Chicago boys / Pinochet style economic reforms. Of course that has the lefty crowd across the world in an uproar.

Great article, debating if the Chile model will translate to an economy and population more than 10x the size of Chile:

http://batimes.com.ar/news/opinion-and- ... azil.phtml

I honestly think the "Chicago boys" get way more credit than they really earned. Yea, free markets, bla, bla. Privatization bla, bla. The basically did not do anything that was not taught in Economics 101 at the University of Chicago, and every University in the U.S. for the last 50+ years.

If there was something that Pinochet and the gang did, that I don't see any other country in Latin America that I am aware of has had done, was stack the congress and constitutional structure to stop wild political swings from the left to the right (e.g. Brazil, Argentina, etc). They knew that the right wingers were probably always going to be a political minority, so they did funky things like implement the elect one representative on a ticket and you get to bring a friend from that party that did not win the election lower down the ticket.

Most of those changes have since been undone, but during the transition phase of about 30 years after the dictatorship, it did manage to keep the country fairly center left. The support that the center right has now, is more organic in nature. However, the former constitutional structure managed to keep the extreme left in Check at a critical economic moment.

Ironically, although the center left in Chile would never admit it, they capitalized on that hard coded political split to stay in power for nearly 30 years, at the expense of the far left. So, Pinochet might have wrote it, but the left in Chile sure adopted it. I think the evidence of that was when Bachelet tried to propose drafting a new constitution, and it basically turned in to a political face plant that no one trusted the far left to do correctly.

So, essentially, the real innovation however was political stability, that targeted the political center, rather than the left or the right. Something historically in short-supply in Latin America, that built the economy. Nothing is more corrosive to an economy, than political instability.

Now, could Brazil or Argentina do that?

I highly doubt it. They might get some reforms implemented, but I doubt they will be able to do something like a full constitutional overhaul of that scale. Perhaps.

Without that however, most of the other changes are political and economic window dressing.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:49 am

Interesting generalization, that I am not convinced is really true:
More than the Mercosur trading bloc, it is Argentina and Brazil’s shared coastline that has historically kept the two countries close; while the same applies for Chile, Peru and Colombia on the Pacific coast. In simplistic terms, Atlantic countries are generally more European and leftist, while those on the Pacific are more North American and to the right.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by Huelshoff » Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:48 am

I agree that the Chicago Boys should not get the credit they often do. Ffrench-Davis, who is a middle of the road Chilean economist, makes a pretty strong case that it was the ousting of the Chicago Boys which led to the long-run recovery of the Chilean economy. He argues that their policies led to the great recession in Chile in 1982, and the subsequent recovery was based on neo-Keynesian reforms. Pinochet was pretty pissed at the Chicago Boys, I understand. That is not to say that the influence of the Chicago Boys stopped after 1982, but rather that it was tempered. The effects of their policies are clear even today. The recent controversy over education, especially higher education, has roots in the privatization program started by the Chicago Boys. Ditto pension reform.

I'd disagree too that Brazil and Argentina have been historically close. They have been rivals since independence. In the 1970s and 1980s they even competed to build nuclear weapons. In 1991 they signed an agreement to end their programs, and created the Brazilian–Argentine Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials. I'm not sure about this, but I believe that Argentina got more European (especially southern European) immigration than did Brazil. Just learned this from one of my students: Brazil has the largest Japanese expat community in the world. Probably not the biggest immigrant community in Brazil, but still the biggest Japanese expat community in the world. As for the Chileans, well they used to be called the British of Latin America, so I guess that's still Anglo-Saxon.

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