China Growth Has Stopped

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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by admin » Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:47 pm

I had a taxi driver in China, after encountering a long traffic jam at an intersection, decide to drive around. He drove up on to the side walk, honking his horn, with hundreds of people running out of the way (no such things as an empty side walk in China). Guess he figured he had a couple foreigners in the back, he could get away with it.

I really can not recall ever seeing a traffic cop in China.
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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by admin » Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:50 pm

So, here is some interesting copper / china related info out:

Projected copper production to hit 6 million tons for the first time in Chile:
http://www.mining.com/chiles-copper-pro ... e-in-2019/

China has also surpassed the United states as top buyer of Chile's agroforestry industry (guess that is everything from wine and fruits, to lumber):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chil ... SKCN1P229M

Whatever Chile is producing, the Chinese seem to want to buy it.
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at46
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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by at46 » Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:10 pm

Copper price to wobble for the next few months and then up and up till 2021. Then down again... https://www.investing.com/analysis/copp ... -200373922

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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by Loftland » Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:40 am

admin wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:47 pm
I had a taxi driver in China, after encountering a long traffic jam at an intersection, decide to drive around. He drove up on to the side walk, honking his horn, with hundreds of people running out of the way (no such things as an empty side walk in China). Guess he figured he had a couple foreigners in the back, he could get away with it.

I really can not recall ever seeing a traffic cop in China.
That's insane. I would have told him to stop and left... Don't they have that social score thing that they have to worry about?

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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by Britkid » Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:02 pm

Keep in mind that the admin's stories about China are things that happened in the 1990s or 2010...whenever he was there. China is a really fast changing country. You go away for a few years and they've replaced a fishing village with a financial district. When I visited China, I went up the tallest building. Within a year, it was the second tallest building in China.

Things that were true a few years ago in China are not necessarily true today. The pace of change, even cultural change, is completely different to what we're used to in Europe or the Americas. In Chile, US or UK I can write a story about how I had to do something like get a residence permit or my driving license and someone can reply "yep, that's the same as when I did it in 2003." In China, that's not necessarily the case.

Also what goes on in Manchuria is not the same as what happens in Shenzhen which is not the same as what happens in a small village in the interior or in Tibet. China's a pretty big place. Remember "China" is bigger than "Europe" in population and maybe in size. And so we can perhaps expect a similar amount of cultural and other differences.

So you could easily go to somewhere else in China today and have the exact opposite thing happen to our stories. It would be no surprise at all.

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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by Britkid » Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:03 pm

That social score thing you mentioned for instance...when the admin was in China, I don't think it existed?

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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by admin » Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:59 pm

Loftland wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:40 am
admin wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:47 pm
I had a taxi driver in China, after encountering a long traffic jam at an intersection, decide to drive around. He drove up on to the side walk, honking his horn, with hundreds of people running out of the way (no such things as an empty side walk in China). Guess he figured he had a couple foreigners in the back, he could get away with it.

I really can not recall ever seeing a traffic cop in China.
That's insane. I would have told him to stop and left... Don't they have that social score thing that they have to worry about?
that was nearly 20 years ago. long before china was all the rage for foriegners. foreigners were still a fairly novel thing, even in bigger eastern chinese cities. More than once i had kids come up and ask me for my autograph, and i would immediately start looking around for Michel jordan or someone famous. if the taxi driver got pulled over, he knew he just had to point to the foriegners in the back seat.
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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by HybridAmbassador » Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:45 pm

admin wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:59 pm
Loftland wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:40 am
admin wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:47 pm
I had a taxi driver in China, after encountering a long traffic jam at an intersection, decide to drive around. He drove up on to the side walk, honking his horn, with hundreds of people running out of the way (no such things as an empty side walk in China). Guess he figured he had a couple foreigners in the back, he could get away with it.

I really can not recall ever seeing a traffic cop in China.
That's insane. I would have told him to stop and left... Don't they have that social score thing that they have to worry about?
that was nearly 20 years ago. long before china was all the rage for foriegners. foreigners were still a fairly novel thing, even in bigger eastern chinese cities. More than once i had kids come up and ask me for my autograph, and i would immediately start looking around for Michel jordan or someone famous. if the taxi driver got pulled over, he knew he just had to point to the foriegners in the back seat.
Ha,ha,haa the Gringo passenger made me do it! That is hilarious. At the same time, China still does not recognize illegally born second child before it allowed the second one recently. The :extra one; that came to life still does not have a " citizen credential" therefore those does not merit its existence and have no ID meaning no public schooling nor taking bonafide employment.

Nor the ones with regional family registry such as the ones coming from El campo region into big cities such as Shanghai or Bei Jing. Those are also not meriting of proper "citizen credential" so they have to live in the shadow and only able to hold such menial jobs as delivering lunch food or working in construction sites.

I thought that the communism supposed to be impartial to all, be them city folks or hailing from El campo. China does not accept nor extend its social services unless you have the clamored " city registry " passes. If you are sick you are on your own, if those po' people have money you survive otherwise say Abur to your misery existence...
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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by Britkid » Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:26 am

Britkid wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:16 pm
I talk to Chinese companies...... 2018 was clearly a year of less growth .......I'll take a punt that peso will get a bit weaker from here, while the copper price will drop a little more in 2019.
More and more news has come out confirming what I said about a China slowdown
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47066873

But copper is actually up in January, and the Chilean peso is doing fine as well, actually strengthened a little in January.

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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by 41southchile » Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:12 pm

The thing I've read about growth of "only" 5 percent in China vs say 10 percent 10 years ago, is now that in actual monetary terms 5 percent today is actually more as its from a much much bigger economy than the 10 percent a decade ago, so while in percentage terms its smaller it's not the same, nothing can grow at 10 percent forever, the Chinese economy is maturing and evolving, which as Admin points out is actually a good thing.
It's the same for Apple, cars etc, we have reached peak smartphones and in some markets now it appears peak cars, it's a natural evolution., nothing really to panic about as much as some commentators like to claim, everything and every economy grows, evolves etc. Measuring gdp growth on simple percentage basis is pointless and meaningless imo, look at Japan how do you explain that and their economy of the last 20 years?
I can't decide for you. You'll have to make up your own mind.

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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by at46 » Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:11 pm

Britkid wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:26 am
Britkid wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:16 pm
I talk to Chinese companies...... 2018 was clearly a year of less growth .......I'll take a punt that peso will get a bit weaker from here, while the copper price will drop a little more in 2019.
More and more news has come out confirming what I said about a China slowdown
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47066873

But copper is actually up in January, and the Chilean peso is doing fine as well, actually strengthened a little in January.
QE is back on - negative interest rates anyone?

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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by 41southchile » Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:11 pm

Britkid wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:16 pm
I'll take a punt that peso will get a bit weaker from here, while the copper price will drop a little more in 2019.

Peso strengthens 13 pesos today on back of rising copper prices and moderate tone from the fed,
That must be a 5 to 7 percent strengthening this year so far for the peso?
https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/ ... meses.html
I can't decide for you. You'll have to make up your own mind.

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