Chile's Place in Latin America

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at46
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by at46 » Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:57 pm

eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:02 am
Well the Japanese were already talking with the US about surrendering and the nukes were not necessary except to show the Russians who were about to launch a new front against an already defeated Japan to stay out and that the US leadership was capable of being as psychopathic or more than the Russian leadership.
According to wiki, the Japanese were talking to the Russians, offering them territorial concessions in exchange for helping achieve a conditional surrender before the Americans. But I think given the long list of Japanese war crimes, it's only fair that the Russians did not accept their bribes and pursued them until they agreed to an unconditional surrender.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_war_crimes

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by 41southchile » Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:24 pm

Britkid wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:14 pm
The question is always posed as should they have used the nukes or not but to me there might have been a third way which would have been to use the nukes on the Japanese mainland but not on a city, and then threaten to use them on a city if the Japanese didn't surrender.

Ideal would have been to use them on high ground where the explosion could have been seen from a city, perhaps the city with the most Japanese army and political leadership in it. But set it off in a rural area where the number of casualties would have been far, far lower than use in a city.

That way, they could have avoided the loss of life in an invasion as well as the loss of life from setting off a nuclear bomb in a city.
In a country that actually believed their emperor was god like, a country that committed more horrors that can be listed here, a culture where it was more honourable to kill yourself than surrender, where the use of kamikaze was standard practice , you honestly think setting off an atomic bomb where nobody lived would have convinced them to just throw up their hands and say OK let's surrender???????? Read a few books , start with some of the Tokyo war crimes trials books.
Also after the bombs , the Japanese On the international stage became some of the most anti nuclear weapons advocates in the world, well they were up until the 1990s I don't know if that is still the case.

I visited the Hiroshima Museum a few times, it was a very grim place, but I was impressed by it's focus on peace and anti nuclear weapons angle. War is hell, war is horrifying and cruel, always has been , that is the idea of war, to win at all costs and generally as history shows no matter what the cost. It's very easy to sit back (and some might even say almost disrespectful to those that were there) to try and say what should have been done 70 years later.
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at46
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by at46 » Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:20 am

bert.douglas wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:04 am
admin wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:20 am
i always take "wonder weapons" with a grain of salt. historicaly they rarely win a war, even if they work as advertised. typicaly the failure is in production and deployment volume.
...
"super weapons", tend to be most effective in the gap between the possesers figuring out how to use them effectively, and those defending against them learn how to counter them (or aquire them). other than that, they are typicaly useful as a reliable distraction for the otherside to waist resources trying to counter.
Anti-ship weapons have been a growing threat for a long time. There is no real defense. And the situation is getting worse. The USS Stark was completely disabled in 1987 by two Exocet missiles fired from a bizjet. One of the missiles didn't even explode, but the unburned rocket fuel started a fire in the CIC (combat information center). The guys on the Stark didn't know the missile was coming until it hit. The only current defense is CIWS. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Close-in_weapon_system
This amounts to a computer controlled gatling gun with radar. It shoots bullets at the missile. Maximum engagement range is about 5000 meters. At mach 10 this is less than 1 second.

The situation is very asymmetrical. The missiles are cheap. And defense against them is difficult. With technical advances, such as computational fluid dynamics and low cost miniaturized electronics, the missiles are steadily getting cheaper and better. So you can afford a swarm of them. This will overwhelm any defense. Most of the cost is in airframe design and software development for the control system. The actual unit cost of manufacture is low.
I think you're talking about the Russian aircraft killer 'Kinzhal' or Dagger which zeros in at a speed of 10 Mach https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh-47M2_Kinzhal

They also have the Avanguard missile that flies over a distance of 12K km bringing 3-6 warheads with 150-300 kiloton each and hitting at over 20 Mach. It's also already in serial production. Apparently, it would take 50 American SM-3 missiles to shoot one down, basically making the American missile defense obsolete.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avangard_ ... e_vehicle)

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by at46 » Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:57 pm

bert.douglas wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:31 pm
at46 wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:20 am
I think you're talking about the Russian aircraft killer 'Kinzhal' or Dagger which zeros in at a speed of 10 Mach https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh-47M2_Kinzhal
China has several classes of missiles specifically designed to kill ships. One that has been around for years is an ordinary intermediate range ballistic missile, with an actively guided reentry vehicle. It can be launched from 1000 miles away. All you need to know is the location of the target ship. Any fishing boat or yacht with a sat-phone can provide this information. China also has satellites that track the position of ships at sea. It is impossible to hide an aircraft carrier.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-21#DF- ... ic_missile
There are lots of anti-ship missiles out there. The Dagger just reaches farther, hits harder and way, way faster. The other anti-ship thing the Russians have is the unmanned undersea drone with a nuclear engine and nuclear or regular payload that has unlimited range and speed several times faster than anything that moves in or under the sea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-ship_missile

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:56 pm

call me when someone actuely sinks a modern aircraft carrier group. but, aircraft carriers were never realy intended to be invincible. they are meant to provide portiable base of operations, that was not subject to some other countries laws or permissions. russia and china have had nukes to counter aircraft carrier groups for decades. i doubt we will ever see a sea to sea battle again between navies because of it.

yea, i do think they are a rather obsolete tech. i am sure the pentagone realizes their days are numbered, even if congress is still in love with their pork barrel spending they involve.

loosing say 5 or 6 carrier groups in the early days of any war, would pretty much end the air craft carrier era like the battle ships came to an abrubt end in wwll.

drones are what the next war will be fought and won with. when isis was able to field drones, or anyone with an amazon account can field drones, you can see pretty clearly where war is going.

chinese and russians have been very keen to add radar bases around the world. they are needed for drones, the same reason the u.s. has so many mini-bases now around the world.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by at46 » Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:40 pm

admin wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:56 pm
call me when someone actuely sinks a modern aircraft carrier group. but, aircraft carriers were never realy intended to be invincible. they are meant to provide portiable base of operations, that was not subject to some other countries laws or permissions. russia and china have had nukes to counter aircraft carrier groups for decades. i doubt we will ever see a sea to sea battle again between navies because of it.
I think your original point was that Russian military tech is bad because they don't have any actual aircraft carriers. Well, turns out, they don't need any, because they've made them obsolete. As well as the entire US missile defense. The one and only they do have, they probably keep upgrading only to sell those upgrade packages to India and China, both of which bought the same model from Russia. Plus keeping shipyard workers busy is obviously as important in Russia as it is in the US.

As to the methods of the next sea war, I think we're already witnessing it - how many battleships did the US loose to tanker collisions last year? Nato just lost one too - a 500 mln Euro Norwegian baby, apparently, with an American at the helm at the time of collision. Go figure... https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/17/euro ... index.html

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by Julito » Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:49 pm

I agree on the demise of aircraft carriers. They and the accompanying fleet are all about projecting power. For years now they've had nasty surprises eg. the time years ago a Chinese sub surfaced in the middle of a fleet, just to show they could. Or more recently the now ageing Australian Collins Class sub, widely reported as a dud (which the Oz Navy was very happy to play along with) coming away from a joint exercise with the Yanks with photos from directly under the hull of their aircraft carrier.

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:12 am

What is about all this recent sable rattling? if the Russia forces are as inept as everyone who is afraid of them believes, what is the worry? If they are even half marginally effective, what is the point as all evidence shows they are focused on defense of motherland more than offense and projection of power? The neocons have so infected everyone that they may well cause the annihilation of humanity because they at least acknowledge the Russia nukes still work but insist on playing road warrior chicken...and this is logical somehow??? These Russo inepts are behind Assange, Snowden, Trump; caused Killary to lose the election; caused Brexit; and now are responsible for the yellow jackets? Is that next blue capsule a 'lude or cyanide?
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by at46 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:22 am

eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:12 am
What is about all this recent sable rattling? if the Russia forces are as inept as everyone who is afraid of them believes, what is the worry? If they are even half marginally effective, what is the point as all evidence shows they are focused on defense of motherland more than offense and projection of power? The neocons have so infected everyone that they may well cause the annihilation of humanity because they at least acknowledge the Russia nukes still work but insist on playing road warrior chicken...and this is logical somehow??? These Russo inepts are behind Assange, Snowden, Trump; caused Killary to lose the election; caused Brexit; and now are responsible for the yellow jackets? Is that next blue capsule a 'lude or cyanide?
It's about the economy. Take a look at these 'Words vs. Soundbites' interviews and tell me if it wouldn't be all too convenient for the Western powers that be to stage another 9/11, blaming it on Russia, to trigger a financial reset?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubzMUzO_-YM
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/18/busi ... index.html

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:16 am

at46 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:22 am
eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:12 am
What is about all this recent sable rattling? if the Russia forces are as inept as everyone who is afraid of them believes, what is the worry? If they are even half marginally effective, what is the point as all evidence shows they are focused on defense of motherland more than offense and projection of power? The neocons have so infected everyone that they may well cause the annihilation of humanity because they at least acknowledge the Russia nukes still work but insist on playing road warrior chicken...and this is logical somehow??? These Russo inepts are behind Assange, Snowden, Trump; caused Killary to lose the election; caused Brexit; and now are responsible for the yellow jackets? Is that next blue capsule a 'lude or cyanide?
It's about the economy. Take a look at these 'Words vs. Soundbites' interviews and tell me if it wouldn't be all too convenient for the Western powers that be to stage another 9/11, blaming it on Russia, to trigger a financial reset?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubzMUzO_-YM
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/18/busi ... index.html
So the yoda of finance and supposed Ayn Rand follower has come out of the shadows and is making the financial talk show rounds. Yup, that is ominous.
There are two ways to be fooled.

One is to believe what isn't true;

the other is to refuse to believe what is true.

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by at46 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:48 am

eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:16 am
at46 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:22 am
eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:12 am
What is about all this recent sable rattling? if the Russia forces are as inept as everyone who is afraid of them believes, what is the worry? If they are even half marginally effective, what is the point as all evidence shows they are focused on defense of motherland more than offense and projection of power? The neocons have so infected everyone that they may well cause the annihilation of humanity because they at least acknowledge the Russia nukes still work but insist on playing road warrior chicken...and this is logical somehow??? These Russo inepts are behind Assange, Snowden, Trump; caused Killary to lose the election; caused Brexit; and now are responsible for the yellow jackets? Is that next blue capsule a 'lude or cyanide?
It's about the economy. Take a look at these 'Words vs. Soundbites' interviews and tell me if it wouldn't be all too convenient for the Western powers that be to stage another 9/11, blaming it on Russia, to trigger a financial reset?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubzMUzO_-YM
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/18/busi ... index.html
So the yoda of finance and supposed Ayn Rand follower has come out of the shadows and is making the financial talk show rounds. Yup, that is ominous.
He's selling his new book, but his message is pretty simple. Stagflation in US and EU for the next 10 to 25 years as the best case scenario. The logical worst case scenario being that this realization obviously pushes some to look for a quick 9/11 type fix with all hell breaking loose. And the new Russian super-weapons may be the only thing preventing that from happening.

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:03 pm

i just chuckle now when i see chile listed as one of the "fragile five". what are we talking? under a hundred billion in debt? much of that in pesos and other none-u.s. debt.

i was just reading an article on chicago's unfunded pension debt that works out to 145,000 dollars in debt per resident. just pensions. nothing else.

somewhere in the comments, some one did the math, with the estimated 300 trillion in unfunded federal debt, that takes most americans to around 650,000 dollars per person owed. assume half of america does not or can not pay taxes, and the debt burden is 1.5 million dollars per tax payer.

keep in mind 10,000 baby boomers a day cross age 65.

so who are the real fragile five?

1. united states

2. u.k.

3. france

4. itialy

5. insert any country here that has a massive unfunded whatever, and a rapidly aging population.


on a side / related note senses beuro in chile came out with a projected population of chile in 2050 of just 21,600,000 people in chile. of course assuming the rest of the world does not move here in the meantime.
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