Chile's Place in Latin America

Chile Investment, how to invest in Chile, what to watch out for when investing, economic issues, currency exchange in Chile, and more.
mem
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by mem » Sun May 27, 2018 4:22 pm

I dont think Columbia is a good place to invest, the proximity to VZ and its northern hemisphere status just gives me a bad feeling. Carribean piracy is also up 140% this year

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Mon May 28, 2018 9:50 am

Honestly, i felt way more unsafe in mexico than colombia. There is a diffrent sort of security threat in colombia. I have that feeling in colombia like, yea it can be very dangerious, but more like you have to go looking for it vs. Mexico or central america where just wait and the danger will find you.

A friend that has operate a kidnap and ransom biz in colombia for decades moved his company to venezuela some years ago because the security situation was getting too stable in colombia.

Colombia still has its security issues, but if you have ever seen a country in latin america come out of a 30+ year civil war, it is the kind of transition they all go through. Long-term it typically comes down how well they shift gears from a war footing to a piece footing. For example, leaving thousands of soliders with thousands of wepons floating around with no real economic prospects, tends to result in a very dangerious society as they turn to crime.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Mon May 28, 2018 10:19 am

Well, back to the economics of chile's place.

I dont think chile is in danger of a argentina type crisis; however that does not mean chile exists in a bubble.

The whole EM and junk debt markets are first to go on a central bank tighting cycle. The FX carrie trade will definetly come to chile's door sooner or later just by proximity. Chile is in a better position than most to weather the storm, but this storm is global.

Argentina, and now turkey, itially, spain, etc, are just the canaries in the cole mine.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05- ... -somewhere
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Mon May 28, 2018 10:33 am

20% of u.s. companies are at risk of default in a rising rate environment.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05- ... rates-rise
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Mon May 28, 2018 10:35 am

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Mon May 28, 2018 11:24 am

What is most interesting in this article is the regional allocations of short positions. Latin america is mostly absent.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11- ... short-next
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by Britkid » Mon May 28, 2018 11:26 am

fraggle092 wrote:
Sun May 27, 2018 2:03 pm
41southchile wrote:
Sun May 27, 2018 10:24 am
As a general rule in countries, it seems the lower the murder rate the higher the suicide rate
But Correlation does not imply causation

The OECD is concerned with economic development, not human development. Pity those don't correlate as well as they used to.
HM. I was going to comment quite the opposite. Is the OECD an exclusive rich club or a club for those that promote freedom and democracy? The thing is, there IS a good correlation between the two in my opinion. Most of the countries at the top of that human development index are also in the OECD.

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by Huelshoff » Mon May 28, 2018 11:34 am

Rich club. The OECD started as the OEEC, which was responsible for divvying up Marshall Plan money after WW II to rebuild Europe. It evolved into a rich country's club, although anymore it includes countries that meet general liberal market standards (like Colombia...and Chile). Lots of economic forecasting. They also do a lot of research and consulting with members and non-members who want to match the standards of the rich countries. It was the OECD, for example, who consulted with the Chilean government after that big scandal over accreditation in higher education in Chile a few years ago.

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Mon May 28, 2018 11:56 am

By the way, i typically take zero hedge doom p*rn with a grain of salt. They are always predicting a colapse. Just this time they happen to have some great charts, that can be verified in other places.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Mon May 28, 2018 12:11 pm

Here is an intresting article about a down turn in latin america turning in to a spanosh crisis due the ober exposure or dependence of spanish companies on latin american operations.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/05/12/whos- ... n-america/
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Mon May 28, 2018 12:37 pm

admin wrote:
Mon May 28, 2018 12:11 pm
Here is an intresting article about a down turn in latin america turning in to a spanosh crisis due the ober exposure or dependence of spanish companies on latin american operations.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/05/12/whos- ... n-america/
Decent read as compared to the MSM and other so-called "alternative" crap and of course, like most, based on this assumption which the writer clearly states:
At the moment, as long as the US dollar and US yields continue to rise, emerging market jitters can be expected to grow.
It was and still is about the reserve currency status of the dollar and who has even more debt than the developing countries and in their own currency that they can print unlimited amounts of? Tick...tick....tick....
There are two ways to be fooled.

One is to believe what isn't true;

the other is to refuse to believe what is true.

- Søren Kierkegaard

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Mon May 28, 2018 1:48 pm

Chile's central bank statements about the currency moves:

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1IQ323

Interesting they state that argentina is only 1.5% of chile's trade.
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