Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

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Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by admin » Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:02 am

Peso at 605.50 to the dollar to start the year.

Sub-600, here we come.
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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by admin » Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:30 am

Copper is steady above the $3 level, and historic charts seem to peg the peso to well under 600 pesos to the dollar when copper is above $3 a pound.

The Chilean stock market closed out 2017 as one of the best performing markets in the World.

In fact there seems to be some debate about just how well it did. somehow CNN ran an article giving first place to Argentina's market last year, and second place to Nigera, while not even mentioning Chile. Given the guarenteed instability of the other two, where was the greatest return with the least amount of risk last year?

Then I seen another article somewhere that had Chile, converted to dollar terms, as #2, with only about 1 or 2% difference with Argentina. Which makes sense. A 78% run on the Argentina stock market (vs. a 33% in local currency terms for Chile), with 20% or so inflation, tends to level the playing field against Chile's what 2-3% inflation and strengthening peso against the dollar. In any case, the market did really, really well; and, I suspect we are dialed in for at least another 10 to 20% this year.

My pet conspiracy theory is that the big boys on wall street got their investment calls wrong early in the year, when they said sell Chilean stocks. CNN and the other wall street propaganda machines needed to cover their rear. They missed 30-50% run-up (depending on what you were in) in Chile after making those calls. You don't want to have to explain that to your clients at the end of the year.

That is o.k., we all know the fools and their money will soon be parted in Argentina. That is a sure thing; but, good for Argentina while it last. The less number of economic basket cases in the neighborhood, the better for Chile and latin america overall.

Now, my extreme bet this year is we test 500 to the dollar, even for a little while, with a commodities super-cycle kicking off and Pinera promising a "shock" of investment to restart the economy after 4 years of,... well you know who. Some talk of tax cuts, but more importantly simplifying bachelet's tax reform. fixing the implementation of the environmental and labor laws so they are not so arbitrary in the way they are applied. Bunch of other misc things that will get investment moving.

My medium call is 550 - 600, more realistically, for 2018. Guess that depends more on China's copper / resource demands, and what the U.S. Fed and EU does this year.
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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by admin » Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:37 am

We might even test 600 today.

1 USD =603.965CLP

via xe
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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by admin » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:36 am

Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by admin » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:37 am

1 USD =602.316CLP

dang, I was joking about it breaking 600 today.
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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by admin » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:38 am

We even touched 601.99673
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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by at46 » Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:09 pm

admin wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:36 am
it's all about the copper:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -in-charge
I bet Elon Musk's visit helped knock off 10-12 pesos over the last few days.

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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by admin » Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:10 pm

at46 wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:09 pm
admin wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:36 am
it's all about the copper:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -in-charge
I bet Elon Musk's visit helped knock off 10-12 pesos over the last few days.
What he took his girlfriend to the fireworks in Vina?

That must have been one hell of an expensive bottle of Champagne they ordered.
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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by Jamers41 » Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:25 pm

Let it fall.........you won't hear me complaining.

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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by jehturner » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:16 pm

Well, that has just knocked out not far off half of my monthly retirement savings :(.

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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by Space Cat » Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:46 am

jehturner wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:16 pm
Well, that has just knocked out not far off half of my monthly retirement savings :(.
I hope to compensate for my exchange rate losses by investing in Chilean companies. At least the next couple of years should be great.

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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by at46 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:03 pm

admin wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:10 pm
at46 wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:09 pm
admin wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:36 am
it's all about the copper:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -in-charge
I bet Elon Musk's visit helped knock off 10-12 pesos over the last few days.
What he took his girlfriend to the fireworks in Vina?

That must have been one hell of an expensive bottle of Champagne they ordered.
It's just that his market cap is about half that of the entire Chilean market. I'm sure speculators were happy to play the news, lithium or whatever notwithstanding.

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