coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:25 pm

chile has passed 2,3 million vaccine doses today, or like 13% of the population.

I am not however buying that vaccination is the cause of the decreasing cases. they are going down too in countries with no vaccine programs at all. There simply not that many deployed around the world to make a noticable dent in the statistics, yet.

More likly just the post holiday season wave running its course.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by Britkid » Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:42 pm

For the international case, for the UK, US and Israel, the evidence that the vaccine is working is absolutely mounting. Just look at the graphs on worldometers website.

It´s hard to tell if the vaccine is having much effect yet in Chile though - where a totally different vaccine is being used. The actual data in Chile does not show the clear trends we see in the UK, US and Israel of decreases, probably because the vaccine is coming later and just hasn´t quite had the effect yet.

If the Chinese vaccine is as good as the other ones, then we ought to see the death rate, currently at 80-150 per day in Chile, decrease soon. Because a lot of those deaths are in the age groups already vaccinated. There is perhaps a 2-week delay between infection and death, plus additional delay before we expect the death statistics to reduce because it takes a while for the immunity to kick in (if you get COVID on your way home from the vaccine centre, then you would still presumably be almost as likely to die as without the vaccine at all because your body needs a few days to learn from the vaccine). So deaths should be reducing within about 3 weeks of vaccinations.

Majority of people that die from the vaccine in Chile (over 60%) are over 70, and over 80% are over 60. Source: https://www.pauta.cl/nacional/el-perfil ... ctualizado

This week is 65-70 so by today the age groups accounting for 65% of deaths have been offered the vaccine. Don´t know what the take up % is but say it is high enough that 50% of people who would die have been vaccinated by today (reduction from 65% to 50% based on an estimate of how many are taking up the vaccine that assumes a 70%-80% takeup but I couldn´t find numbers). Now if the vaccine were to be perfect and give 100% protection even after 1 dose that would mean we would expect to see about a 50% reduction in death rate 3 weeks from today.

Based on the various test results and opinions this vaccine probably only gives 50%-80% protection. But on the other hand there is a benefit with some vaccinated people not passing on the vaccine to others as well. So maybe those effects cancel out. So let´s stick with 50% reduction in death rate 3 weeks from today.

The death rate is 80-150 per day now.
For the rest of the week, I expect no change. Because that is people who caught the virus tragically just before they were offered the vaccine.
For the last week of Feb, it might be going slightly down, say 60-130 people per day.
So in 3 weeks, first week of March, I´d predict 40-75 people will die per day.
By mid March, it could be way down, 10-60 people per day.

If we get into March and we are still seeing numbers above 100 dying per day (I predict this won´t happen), that is a bad sign for this Chinese vaccine. That might mean the vaccine isn´t as good as the others they are using in the UK, US and Israel.

All of this assumes a major portion of the effectiveness kicks in after the first dose. If that isn´t true, and the second dose is needed, then all of the above is wrong or at least optimistic...

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Wed Feb 17, 2021 6:26 am

I would say at least 6 to 8 weeks (we are about 3 to 4 in), if the vaccine is working at all. about 1 week after the second shot starts kicking in, the numbers should be fairly apparent, or not.

by that point you have most everyone over 60 has had at least one shot, and a large portion of the oldest and most vulnerable have their second shot, plus a week for that to kick in.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by Billhere » Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:04 am

'The highest percentage of people testing positive for antibodies was those aged 80 years and over at 25.7% (95% confidence interval: 22.7% to 29.0%). The percentage of people aged 16 to 24 years testing positive for antibodies was 21.3% (95% confidence interval: 18.8% to 23.9%).'
Figures for the end of January, as issued by the Office of National Statistics.

The biggest reduction is in the over eighties, who were vaccinated first, then the 75-79 age group, and then 70-74 where they are just clearing up the last in this group. We were done eight days ago so any real statistics for our age group will not show yet.

A more detailed chart by age group is here https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... %2023.9%25).

Some here have had the second jab, a large majority only the first. It is a bit hit and miss dependant on location, and otherwise state of health. We have to wait till the 4th May for our second one.

As mentioned though the figures are gradually reducing it seems.

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by hlf2888 » Wed Feb 17, 2021 11:33 am


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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by tiagoabner » Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:35 pm

The government has changed the rules and has moved teachers to the front of the line sure to pressure to reopen schools. More details here: https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... arzo.shtml

Chronic disease patients got the very short end of the stick, as they were removed as a priority at this time.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Wed Feb 17, 2021 2:03 pm

There was an article about how the government calendar makes no sense in rural areas.

They gave the example of a small town in the Patagonia, where they setup for vaccination, had all the people, vaccine, and according to the government calendar it was suppose to only be people over 80 years old.

Just one problem. Town had like 400 people, and only 2 people that qualified over 80 years old; yet, the government is threatening to prosecute any municipality that does not stick to their schedule. They had more people on hand to do the injections than showed-up to be vaccinated.

Hopefully, and one of the great things I love about the Patagonia, they just moved on to the next person standing around.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by Donnybrook2 » Wed Feb 17, 2021 2:09 pm

tiagoabner wrote:
Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:35 pm
The government has changed the rules and has moved teachers to the front of the line sure to pressure to reopen schools. More details here: https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... arzo.shtml

Chronic disease patients got the very short end of the stick, as they were removed as a priority at this time.
It does make sense in a way. Two neighbours would qualify as serious underlying conditions but they have just stayed home since the pandemic began. teachers are going to be exposed from March. But I thought the original plan was to do both those groups at the same time.

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by gringalais » Wed Feb 17, 2021 2:19 pm

Well, we're having a bit of an outbreak here at over 100 active cases lately. Some people are blaming the Lautaro de Buin soccer team. :lol: They ascended to the Primera B and I guess there was a big celebration at the main square with few masks.

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by gringalais » Wed Feb 17, 2021 2:21 pm

I do wonder if the changing of the calendar means they are running short on vaccines. If 2.3 million got the first shot, they will need 2.3 million more just for them. Wasn't the country supposed to be getting around 5 million total in the initial shipments? I'm pretty sure that is what I read.

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by tiagoabner » Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:17 pm

Donnybrook2 wrote:
Wed Feb 17, 2021 2:09 pm
tiagoabner wrote:
Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:35 pm
The government has changed the rules and has moved teachers to the front of the line sure to pressure to reopen schools. More details here: https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... arzo.shtml

Chronic disease patients got the very short end of the stick, as they were removed as a priority at this time.
It does make sense in a way. Two neighbors would qualify as serious underlying conditions but they have just stayed home since the pandemic began. teachers are going to be exposed from March. But I thought the original plan was to do both those groups at the same time.
Yes, absolutely. It makes perfect sense. I just find it funny how much the Chilean government lacks in terms of planning. It isn't like they had just started to plan the vaccine rollout or the return to classes.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by nwdiver » Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:40 pm

Summer is part of the equation, the second wave in Canada started in the autumn and mainly with groups not properly social distancing, hoping this year with over 50% vaccinated we don’t see a bump in the autumn.......if Chile hits 30-40% vaccinated before everyone is inside and bored there may not be a bump in June-July timeframe......

It appears the number one preventive action is social distancing not mask wearing, the two together are a big step forward......isolation gets boring pretty quickly but having a bubble and sticking with it works....

Also BC has reasonable numbers and restaurants and most services are all open, they each have to meet certain requirements, had a haircut yesterday and lunch in a nice cafe....we ( meaning the world) just have to suck it up and deal with it........it’s not going to last forever, we have to get to the new normal!!!!
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