coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:07 pm

today's report from the doctor,

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h-sQuJanJSs

I thought this quote was worth passing along, from uk authority investigating the new covid varient
Available data indicate a shift in the age composition of reported cases, with a larger share of under 20 year olds among reported VOC than non-VOC cases
which makes sense that the virus would mutate to spread faster, but also move on to greener pastures: younger population.

which may also be a strategy that evades the vaccination programs that are focusing on older and high risk people first, and almost nowhere are younger populations under 20 being prioritized for vaccination. many places are planning to not vaccinate inder 20 at all, or not until the very end of the vaccination programs. which may be a historic mistake if it puts selective pressure on the bug to move to those populations.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by nwdiver » Fri Jan 01, 2021 4:53 am

admin wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:07 pm
today's report from the doctor,

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h-sQuJanJSs

I thought this quote was worth passing along, from uk authority investigating the new covid varient
Available data indicate a shift in the age composition of reported cases, with a larger share of under 20 year olds among reported VOC than non-VOC cases
which makes sense that the virus would mutate to spread faster, but also move on to greener pastures: younger population.

which may also be a strategy that evades the vaccination programs that are focusing on older and high risk people first, and almost nowhere are younger populations under 20 being prioritized for vaccination. many places are planning to not vaccinate inder 20 at all, or not until the very end of the vaccination programs. which may be a historic mistake if it puts selective pressure on the bug to move to those populations.

Like all over the world the 20 somethings think they are invincible so they party hardy........and get these results.

Until a majority of the population is vaccinated social distancing is the way to go, and no partying.......
It's all about the wine.

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:03 am

yea, I am hardly one to criticize 20 year olds, for being 20 year olds. My wife actually teases me with, "you are lucky this pandemic happened later in your life".
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:29 am

This might be the single best article I have read since the pandemic, and potentially the most important.

https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/617531/

When news of the new varrient broke, and all the "experts" kept repeating that it was not more deadly or severe than the other varient, it asaulted my logic on such a very basic level.

I mean it is this simple,

If virus spreads easier, then more people will be infected

More people infected, then more people will die.

Thus, the virus is more deadly.

however, I kept waiting for some expert, some epidemiologist, to explain why it was not more deadly. I kept thinking, 'they must have a good reason for making such an obviously illogical claim'.

That article finally confirms what I suspected:

THEY DON'T HAVE A GOOD REASON AND THE NEW VAIRENT IS MORE DEADLY!!!!
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:32 am

That is a very long article, and I highly recommend everyone read it, but the most important part is this:
To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by hlf2888 » Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:53 pm

Where's the LIKE button? Thought provoking in a world where many prefer not to think.

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:24 pm

The good dr. is going over the data related to the decision by the UK health authority to use all their vaccine, not holding any reserve for the second dose in the event there is a problem with the supply chain.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=M-jqf6i5OLc

It also includes the trial data for the oxford vaccine showing that there was zero hospitalizations, after 1 dose, in the trial vs. 10 hospitalizations, 1 death, 2 critical, among the placibo group in that time.

My position, go for it. the risk / reward calculus seems reasonable. better than people dying.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Sun Jan 03, 2021 12:04 pm

so, looking at the current numbers for the united states, rates of increase, cluster F*ck of a vaccine roll out, idiot politics, and just general american idiotiousy, my current guestimate is the united states passes EASILY over 1,000,000 dead by the end of 2021.

The "EASILY" part is the most terrifying part. My numbers are very likly too conservative.

I am not taking in to account the excelleration caused by the new varient.

I am not taking in to account any major problems with the vaccine roll-out. I am assuming here by July a substantial part of the population is vaccinate (say 60 to 70%), which is not likly

I am not taking in to account the collapse of the medical system in much of the united states.

I am not taking in to account things like quarantine exhaustion setting in, school reopening, economic reactivation, etc.

I am mostly just assuming things stay exactly as they are, with an average of 3,000 deaths a day through the year, which seems a conservative number, even if deaths start dropping later in the year from vaccination. The January to July deaths are set to be so horrific, they will more than make-up for any reduction of death in back half of the year from vaccination.

3,000 x 365 = 1,095,000 deaths.

essentially, even if Biden comes in to office with a whole new game plan to try and turn this oil tanker around, the momentum is not stopping for a very very long time.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:40 pm

Thought I would post this here, to make sure everyone is aware of it.

o.k., minister of health has "clarified" the requirements to travel to Chile.

All foreigners, residents, and citizens must now have a negative PCR test, no older than 72 hours, to board a plane to Chile.

Further, all foreigners, residents, and citizens must complete a 10 day quarantine, that may be lifted with negative PCR test on the 7th day.

Anyone arriving without a negative PCR test, will be returned to their destination. That is typically done to make sure the airlines take this requirement seriously.

Follow this thread, for more information:
viewtopic.php?f=44&t=17654#p206991
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:22 pm

the Dr. going over a study on immunity among health care workers that had previously been confirmed to have been infected.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=M3kQoyCCLmY

over 11,000 in the study, 0 reinfections 6 months later.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Tue Jan 05, 2021 4:08 pm

80 percent of the country vaccinated by end of June Paris reckons.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:59 am

The ISP has received the application for the import of Oxford-astrazenica vaccine:

https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... ford.shtml

not sure why that has taken so long, considering phase 3 trials were conducted in Chile.
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