coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:10 pm

Government Report:

2,133 new cases, 347,954 total confirmed cases

18,782 active cases

75 new deaths, 9,187 total deaths (as reported to the civil register in the last 24 hour).

521 ventilators available

1,555 in icu, 250 critical

21,544 tests conducted, 1,546,097 total tests completed

11% positivity rate
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:16 pm

going in to quartine:

puerto montt
la serena
coquimbo

coming out:

los rios and aysen
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:27 am

admin wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:02 pm
so I was trying to make some guestimate as to when this might end, based on data we have now vs. the early days. It was just too fragmented and inconsistent to make projections.

assuming we hold steady, with about 3,000 cases a day on average.

if we assume about x10 officially dignosed vs. infected, which has held up pretty well everywhere antibody sampling has been conducted. mas o menos.

with 18 million people in the country, we need at least 80% to be fairly certain of herd immunity, or 14,400,000 people.

343,592 have been officially diagnosed.

x10 infected but not dignosed

call it
3,500,000 have been infected

leaving about 10,900,000 yet to be infected.

at, 30,000 new infections per day

we have about 363 days to go. call it a year, to natural herd immunity reaches 80%

obviously, there are all sorts of assumptions there, that could be played with.

The big point I wanted make is to have a look at when herd immunity in chile might be achievable, and is it before a vaccine will likely be ready.

Seems it might be.

figure another 6 months, end of 2020, before a vaccine is approved. another 6 months to a year to produce, distribute, vaccinate everyone to herd immunity levels (80% of population). probably more that a year before it is widely available.

A vaccine might be helpful to finally snuff out the remainder of the virus from clusters popping up, or protecting the most high-risk, but given this conservative back of the napkin check, it looks like it not going to be very helpful even if ready relatively soon and it is effective.

In short, one way or the other, likely by july 2021 , this bug will have either fully burned itself out or at least is transmitted in such small numbers as to be of no real consequence in chile. perhaps some extra care for the extremely vulnerable is still required, but society at large should be back to normal in Chile.

I am however not going to try and extend that guestimate to other countries; but Chile should be done with this, with or without a vaccine by next year.
Google just announced that most of its employees can work at home until summer 2021.

I highly doubt a company like Google, with all the technical resources at their disposal, including some of the best AI modeling and experience with health work, arbitrarily picked that date.

I bet they at least used more than the back of a napkin to calculate that.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:31 am

July 2021 was their guess

https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEE ... id=US%3Aen

I was just doing chile, but I suspected without trying to crunch the numbers, that the global virus would behave similarly in other places.

I would like to see if there is some sort of internal white paper or something about how they came up with that number.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by hlf2888 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:40 am

admin wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:27 am
admin wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:02 pm
so I was trying to make some guestimate as to when this might end, based on data we have now vs. the early days. It was just too fragmented and inconsistent to make projections.

assuming we hold steady, with about 3,000 cases a day on average.

if we assume about x10 officially dignosed vs. infected, which has held up pretty well everywhere antibody sampling has been conducted. mas o menos.

with 18 million people in the country, we need at least 80% to be fairly certain of herd immunity, or 14,400,000 people.

343,592 have been officially diagnosed.

x10 infected but not dignosed

call it
3,500,000 have been infected

leaving about 10,900,000 yet to be infected.

at, 30,000 new infections per day

we have about 363 days to go. call it a year, to natural herd immunity reaches 80%

obviously, there are all sorts of assumptions there, that could be played with.

The big point I wanted make is to have a look at when herd immunity in chile might be achievable, and is it before a vaccine will likely be ready.

Seems it might be.

figure another 6 months, end of 2020, before a vaccine is approved. another 6 months to a year to produce, distribute, vaccinate everyone to herd immunity levels (80% of population). probably more that a year before it is widely available.

A vaccine might be helpful to finally snuff out the remainder of the virus from clusters popping up, or protecting the most high-risk, but given this conservative back of the napkin check, it looks like it not going to be very helpful even if ready relatively soon and it is effective.

In short, one way or the other, likely by july 2021 , this bug will have either fully burned itself out or at least is transmitted in such small numbers as to be of no real consequence in chile. perhaps some extra care for the extremely vulnerable is still required, but society at large should be back to normal in Chile.

I am however not going to try and extend that guestimate to other countries; but Chile should be done with this, with or without a vaccine by next year.
Google just announced that most of its employees can work at home until summer 2021.

I highly doubt a company like Google, with all the technical resources at their disposal, including some of the best AI modeling and experience with health work, arbitrarily picked that date.

I bet they at least used more than the back of a napkin to calculate that.
I bet they did too. Imagine being validated almost immediately by the largest computer brain in our times, are you sure it did not get this info from your post? lol. I have been immortalized by Google on their Earth camera but never validated within 24 hours for a prophesy. Adios commercial office space forever. Thanks for the bad-good news

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:01 pm

Government Report:

1,773 new cases, 351,575 total confirmed cases

17,740 active cases

38 new deaths, 9,278 total deaths (as reported to the civil register in the last 24 hour).

512 ventilators available

1485 in icu, 228 critical

17,130 tests conducted, 1,580,823 total tests completed

11% positivity rate

23% reduction in cases over the last 14 days.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
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From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:03 pm

Colombia reported over 10,000 new cases yesterday.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:07 pm

hlf2888 wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:40 am
admin wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:27 am
admin wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:02 pm
so I was trying to make some guestimate as to when this might end, based on data we have now vs. the early days. It was just too fragmented and inconsistent to make projections.

assuming we hold steady, with about 3,000 cases a day on average.

if we assume about x10 officially dignosed vs. infected, which has held up pretty well everywhere antibody sampling has been conducted. mas o menos.

with 18 million people in the country, we need at least 80% to be fairly certain of herd immunity, or 14,400,000 people.

343,592 have been officially diagnosed.

x10 infected but not dignosed

call it
3,500,000 have been infected

leaving about 10,900,000 yet to be infected.

at, 30,000 new infections per day

we have about 363 days to go. call it a year, to natural herd immunity reaches 80%

obviously, there are all sorts of assumptions there, that could be played with.

The big point I wanted make is to have a look at when herd immunity in chile might be achievable, and is it before a vaccine will likely be ready.

Seems it might be.

figure another 6 months, end of 2020, before a vaccine is approved. another 6 months to a year to produce, distribute, vaccinate everyone to herd immunity levels (80% of population). probably more that a year before it is widely available.

A vaccine might be helpful to finally snuff out the remainder of the virus from clusters popping up, or protecting the most high-risk, but given this conservative back of the napkin check, it looks like it not going to be very helpful even if ready relatively soon and it is effective.

In short, one way or the other, likely by july 2021 , this bug will have either fully burned itself out or at least is transmitted in such small numbers as to be of no real consequence in chile. perhaps some extra care for the extremely vulnerable is still required, but society at large should be back to normal in Chile.

I am however not going to try and extend that guestimate to other countries; but Chile should be done with this, with or without a vaccine by next year.
Google just announced that most of its employees can work at home until summer 2021.

I highly doubt a company like Google, with all the technical resources at their disposal, including some of the best AI modeling and experience with health work, arbitrarily picked that date.

I bet they at least used more than the back of a napkin to calculate that.
I bet they did too. Imagine being validated almost immediately by the largest computer brain in our times, are you sure it did not get this info from your post? lol. I have been immortalized by Google on their Earth camera but never validated within 24 hours for a prophesy. Adios commercial office space forever. Thanks for the bad-good news
well, my 'computer' cost less than a 1 peso, was multi-functional (after lunch), and the results did not need to be sanity checked. I know it is crazy. :lol:
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:21 am

brazil reported over 70,000 new cases in one day.

This can get much, much worse.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:09 pm

Government Report:

1948 new cases, 353,536 total confirmed cases

17,531 active cases

99 new deaths, 9,377 total deaths (as reported to the civil register in the last 24 hour).

positive rate 10%
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:13 pm

so, today with the "opening" of RM and the AFP mess, I would expect another major spike accross the country some time between September 18th and the election in the end of August.

with both of those events, initiating an even bigger spike running through x-mas and the new year; just in time for summer vacation.

in short, at least three more big waves through 2020; each bigger than the last.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:46 pm

Government Report:

1,979 new cases, 330,507 total confirmed cases

17,621active cases

76 new deaths, 9,533 total deaths (as reported to the civil register in the last 24 hour).

551 ventilators available

226 critical

24,398 tests conducted, 1,648,390 total tests completed

NOTE: I am not going post the numbers everyday unless there is a major spike or other major event.

This is mostly because the government press conference is too unpredictable. It is mas o menos, some time between 10 a.m. to 3 p.m., which makes it nearly impossible to catch.

They also waist way too much time talking about irrelevant bullshit, and repeating meaningless crap (e.g. Like 10 to 15 minutes of a 30 min press conference, telling people to wear a mask and wash their hands, be responsible, bla, bla, bla, by 2 to 4 officials everyday, for nearly 6 months? ). At least they stopped spending 15 mins reading the numbers for every country in the world.

Basically, it is the worse possible example, at the worse possible time, of the Chilean cultural tendencies to 'beat around the bush', when they have uncomfortable or embarrassing news to deliver.

The press questions are not much better. typically leftist political crap or conspiracy bs, they read on Twitter, type questions or about rumors of this or that, or questions about criticisms by some politician that just made some crap up, etc.

Almost none of the press questions have any real relevance to anything, let alone the progress of the virus in the country or increasing anybody's understanding, or holding the administration to account for anything of relevance.

In short, they have some how manged to turn the daily government press conference about a global pandemic that is maiming and killing millions of people, and destroying the global economy, in to something so boring, I don't want to watch it anymore. :roll:

That said, the numbers are posted on the top of just about every news site in the country if you want them or at minsal.cl site if you want to see them, and the raw numbers are far more
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