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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2020 1:20 pm
by admin
today they are publishing revised epidemiological report on confirmed and suspect deaths.

after investigating all the deaths, the number of suspect cases has been reduced to 2,847 from over 3,400 (i dont have the orginal number).

around 200 of those have been confirmed as covid by pcr.

around 6,000 will be the new confirmed deaths.

waiting on more details.

Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2020 1:28 pm
by admin
The minister has been talking the last few days about the trend of new cases reducing, 14%, 11% 17%, but that is hardly a trend among trends. They are one party of idiots away from reversing that, so hardly worth mentioning let alone celebrating.

Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:22 pm
by VHRA
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/chile/

7-day MA looking quite good, deaths obviously lagging behind but should hopefully follow a similar trajectory. Seems like they are tightening up permisos even more in RM as well.

Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2020 3:15 pm
by admin
Just doing some back of the napkin projection checks here.

18 million population

based on 6,000 deaths, 272,000 cases, with death rate of around 2.2%

assuming 70% of the pop contracts this before herd immunity really takes hold, or 12,600,000 people contract covid (no time set, just until it burns out)

x 2.2% death rate (FYI, this seems to be death rate in the UK too)

that get's us expected deaths around 277,000 deaths in Chile by the time this is over (one year, 5 years, etc). let's fuzzy number that, as death rate might fluctuate over time for a variety of reasons.

So, 200, 000 to 400,000 deaths are possible by the time this is over.

lots of assumptions in those numbers, but I am more inclined to over than under estimate this.

old military principle:
Never strategize bases on what you think an enemy WILL DO. Strategize based on what an enemy COULD DO.

If the virus turns out to not be that bad, great; but, I would not prepare for the best case scenario.

that really captures the error a lot of countries have made so far.

The biggest mistake among those massive errors right now the world seems to be making is assuming their will be a 100% fully effective vaccine anytime soon.

Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:23 pm
by Britkid
The LGBT pride event was ultimately suspended by the organizers of the event itself.

Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:37 pm
by admin
the doctor today is having a look at that study out of spain where they detected covid in match 2019 in the waist water.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7LCRBqmQxv0

Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:45 pm
by admin
It would be nice to see some supporting studies on this, but if confirmed that would square pretty nicely with those sat photos of the hospitals in wuhan with packed parking lots around august or September 2019, if you assume this virus needed say 6 months or more to ramp-up, take hold, and was being masked by the flue season.

Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:03 pm
by admin
here is the link to the epidemiological report on the total death count:

https://www.minsal.cl/29-informe-epidem ... -covid-19/

Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:34 pm
by admin
Government Report:

4,017 new cases, 275,999 total confirmed cases

34,270 active cases

493 tests pending notification in labs

66 new deaths, 5,575 total deaths (as reported to the civil register in the last 24 hour)

291 ventilators

2,090 in ICU, 1,763 on ventilators, 401 critical

16,799 tests conducted, 1,096,443 total tests completed

12% decrease in new cases over the last 14 days.

Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:43 pm
by Rhodolite
Why - how - is waste water from March 2019 still available almost 16 months later?

Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:39 am
by admin
Rhodolite wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:43 pm
Why - how - is waste water from March 2019 still available almost 16 months later?
it is a standard testing practice all over the world for public health reasons to track waist water.

Used for everything from tracking dangerous chemicals and pollutants in water systems to studies on the consumption of drugs by populations.

The infamous one was the discovery of low level antidepressant and antipsychotics in the LA drinking water some years ago that was traced to the waist water they were treating.

but I am sure it's more ho hum use is probably just trying to keep waist water treatment systems working. for example needing to know about toxic chemicals calls for changes to the treatment system before the water is discharged in to public water ways.

Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:08 pm
by admin
Government Report:

3,394 new cases, 279,393 total confirmed cases

32,476 active cases

366 tests pending notification in labs

113 new deaths, 5,688 total deaths (as reported to the civil register in the last 24 hour)

2,106 in icu, 1,700 on ventilators, 398 critical

293 ventilators available

13,349 tests conducted, 1,109,792 total tests completed

Various notes from the press conference:

16% less new cases over the last 14 days.

25% less positive cases over the last 7 days.

168 cases per 100,000 people nationally