coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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Space Cat
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by Space Cat » Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:01 pm

The chart that explains it all (click/tap to zoom):

RzrIUQV.png

Jamers41
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by Jamers41 » Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:43 am

Space Cat wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:01 pm
The chart that explains it all (click/tap to zoom):


RzrIUQV.png
Very interesting.

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admin
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:41 am

so, the Chinese are saying the strain they have in Beijing now, the dominate strain the world, is not playing nice with the anti-bodies people have from the early strain in China.

https://amp.scmp.com/coronavirus/greate ... efenceless

I was watching some documentaries on the 1918 flue pandemic and the polio pandemic this weekend, and I realised why this virus is even worse.

This virus is horrific, exactly because it is not horrific. In 1918, the virus turned people blue. young people were bleeding from their eyes, ears, nose. they coughed up blood. with the polio outbreaks, you have little kids in walking braces, wheelchairs, and locked in iron lungs.

essentially, because this virus lacks the shock and awe of other viruses, a large segment of the population will never take it seriously. It is like the saying, "the devil's greatest trick was convincing everyone he did not exist".

well, a slow burn, low profile virus on many levels is far worse simply because of the stealth nature of it.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:44 am

Government Report:

4,608 new cases, 246,963 total confirmed cases

37,064 active cases

23 new deaths, 4,502 total deaths (as reported to the civil register in the last 24 hour)

284 ventilators

1,726 patients on ventilators, 403 critical

18, 645 tests conducted, 982,353 total tests completed
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:23 pm

so, the United States had 8.7 million cases, IN MARCH!

https://amp.miamiherald.com/news/corona ... 21007.html

80% unconfirmed by PCR test.

which tracts fairly close to the rule of thumb the saying "for every case seen at a doctor's office, there are 8 to 10 they are not seeing".

considering the u.s. still only confirming 2.3 million "official" cases. :lol: :roll:
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:34 pm

the study is even worse:

https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/earl ... ed.abc1126

it was 8.7 million in only 3 weeks in march.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:41 am

Government Report:

3,804 new cases, 250,767 total confirmed cases

35,692 active cases

3 new deaths, 4,505 total deaths (as reported to the civil register in the last 24 hour)

257 ventilators

12,707 tests conducted, 995,060 total tests completed
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:45 am

they warned that the weekend number of deaths will likely not appear until later in the week in the civil registery database.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by scandinavian » Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:01 pm

admin wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:41 am
Government Report:

3,804 new cases, 250,767 total confirmed cases

35,692 active cases

3 new deaths, 4,505 total deaths (as reported to the civil register in the last 24 hour)

257 ventilators

12,707 tests conducted, 995,060 total tests completed
I didn't see the press conference today - Any explanation to the very low number of tests? If they had done 20K test as usual with that 30% positivity rate, then it would have been 6K new cases.

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:06 pm

Government Report:

3,649 new cases, 254,416 total confirmed cases

34,592 active cases

226 new deaths, 4,731 total deaths (as reported to the civil register in the last 24 hour)

280 ventilators

424 critical patients

12,575 tests conducted, 1,007,635 total tests completed

23,000 PCR tests capacity per day
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scandinavian
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by scandinavian » Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:38 pm

Today I heard the press conference. The subsecretary requested urgently that people with symptoms do the test and gave that as a cause for the much lower amount of tests realized the last few days. To me, that sounds doubtful.
2 weeks ago Universidad de Chile said that test results are 14 days delayed. So, they have caught up since then?
https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... nasa.shtml
Furthermore, it seems that a lot of the public hospitals are refusing to test a lot of people - even people with symptoms.
Lastly, the constant images on national TV of people being tested with the swipe way up in the nose is probably not helping as it looks very uncomfortable.
Don't understand why they are not asking more critical questions about it.

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FrankPintor
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by FrankPintor » Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:00 pm

scandinavian wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:38 pm
Today I heard the press conference. The subsecretary requested urgently that people with symptoms do the test and gave that as a cause for the much lower amount of tests realized the last few days. To me, that sounds doubtful.
2 weeks ago Universidad de Chile said that test results are 14 days delayed. So, they have caught up since then?
https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... nasa.shtml
Furthermore, it seems that a lot of the public hospitals are refusing to test a lot of people - even people with symptoms.
Lastly, the constant images on national TV of people being tested with the swipe way up in the nose is probably not helping as it looks very uncomfortable.
Don't understand why they are not asking more critical questions about it.
Just checking in here again, you have excellent questions... but the answer is that the daily numbers don't matter much.

Why? No conspiracy theory, it's simple maths:

At the very least, you need to test the close contacts of every confirmed positive case. How many close contacts does each case have? In Chile I don't know, but in Ireland there are 6 close contacts of every positive case, so I'll take that as an estimate. So to have reliable testing data, you need to test at least 7 times the number of positive cases every day. To take today's announcement, 7 x 3649 = 25,543, which is about twice the number actually tested. It's been like that for all of June. So the data is useless.

The only reliable data is the excess death statistic, which was updated by the Financial Times again yesterday: https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f ... 5839e06441. This is taken from Chilean government data of course, they give the link at the bottom of the page. The relevant graphics are:
Chile Covid.png
Chile Covid.png (24.46 KiB) Viewed 157 times
And because Chile is not Santiago:

Santiago Covid.png
Santiago Covid.png (29.96 KiB) Viewed 157 times

That's the only reliable data out there. I feel sorry for the new health minister, he's been left a very difficult job by his predecessor. I think the quarantine in Santiago has to help at some point, assuming it really gets the mobility down: it's the only measure proven to work since Wuhan in January, but it sure took a lot of useless suffering and death before they finally did it in Santiago.

Anyway, I'm off again. Not going to respond to any trolling by the way (I reported a post but of course there was no response).
Caracas es Caracas. Lo demás es monte y culebra!

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