coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Sat May 16, 2020 10:35 am

he is now under investigation for having flown to PM.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/ ... avion.html
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Sat May 16, 2020 11:06 am

admin wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 10:35 am
he is now under investigation for having flown to PM.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/ ... avion.html
So he should be, just like the health minister in Scotland going out and about , the buearaucrat in England that recommended lockdowns and was caught across town with his lover, or the health minister of NZ who went mountain biking in lockdown. All the same whoever they are, implementing lockdown rules and proper testing protocols on their citizens, but their arrogance thinks those rules somehow must not apply to them because they are so important. This guy knew he was waiting on a result and still travelled, if the socialists have an ounce of credibility left they will have to let him go, for good.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by tiagoabner » Sat May 16, 2020 11:23 am

admin wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 10:35 am
he is now under investigation for having flown to PM.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/ ... avion.html
His statements are really out of touch with reality. It's almost as if he hadn't been paying attention to what has been going on for the last few months.

"At this moment I'm feeling well, I do not have any symptoms: I do not have a headache, I do not have a fever, and I have not lost my sense of smell, I have not lost my taste buds, nothing." - No shit, Sherlock. Could that be due to a lot of cases being asymptomatic and due to the disease's incubation period?

"I have been attending Congress normally, traveling from Puerto Montt every week to Santiago and Valparaíso, because I felt perfectly well." - So, even after doing the exam on Wednesday evening, he kept traveling to southern Chile. What's the guideline for when you do the exam? I don't know, but I assume that you're expected to not travel all over the country while you wait for a test result for a highly infectious disease.


Asked if he used the mask correctly during the trip and in the sessions in the Congress, Quinteros pointed out that "he thinks he did it, but I have realized that sometimes I may have actually lowered my mask. I realized that in the last session we had, I lowered my mask a little so I could speak better, that's true." - The latest session for the Chilean senate was on May 13th (source), the same day he was tested.

Regarding the request from some senators to cancel Senate sessions, the vice president said that he did not agree, since "every day you learn more in the sense of greater care, I think that measure is not necessary." - So even after he, as an infected person, spoke with his mask lowered down, he still thinks that in-person sessions should go on.
I'm NOT your lawyer, accountant or financial planner. All information at this post should be considered for your entertainment only. Consult a professional before making a decision regarding whatever topic was mentioned in this post.

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Sat May 16, 2020 11:45 am

tiagoabner wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 11:23 am
admin wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 10:35 am
he is now under investigation for having flown to PM.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/ ... avion.html
His statements are really out of touch with reality. It's almost as if he hadn't been paying attention to what has been going on for the last few months.

"At this moment I'm feeling well, I do not have any symptoms: I do not have a headache, I do not have a fever, and I have not lost my sense of smell, I have not lost my taste buds, nothing." - No shit, Sherlock. Could that be due to a lot of cases being asymptomatic and due to the disease's incubation period?

"I have been attending Congress normally, traveling from Puerto Montt every week to Santiago and Valparaíso, because I felt perfectly well." - So, even after doing the exam on Wednesday evening, he kept traveling to southern Chile. What's the guideline for when you do the exam? I don't know, but I assume that you're expected to not travel all over the country while you wait for a test result for a highly infectious disease.


Asked if he used the mask correctly during the trip and in the sessions in the Congress, Quinteros pointed out that "he thinks he did it, but I have realized that sometimes I may have actually lowered my mask. I realized that in the last session we had, I lowered my mask a little so I could speak better, that's true." - The latest session for the Chilean senate was on May 13th (source), the same day he was tested.

Regarding the request from some senators to cancel Senate sessions, the vice president said that he did not agree, since "every day you learn more in the sense of greater care, I think that measure is not necessary." - So even after he, as an infected person, spoke with his mask lowered down, he still thinks that in-person sessions should go on.
He's acting dumb, I dont think he is that dumb (or maybe he is)
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Sat May 16, 2020 12:07 pm

Government report:

1,886 new cases, 41, 428 total cases confirmed

18,014 considered recovered

27 new deaths, 421 total deaths

623 on nventelators, 123 critical,

414 ventilators available,

there was a shipment yesterday of new ventilators, not included in that number.

8,813 tests conducted yesterday, 350,325 total tests
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by tiagoabner » Sat May 16, 2020 12:38 pm

41southchile wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 11:45 am
He's acting dumb, I dont think he is that dumb (or maybe he is)
He is vice-president of the Chilean senate. He was at least capable enough to get to that position, which I assume wasn't easy. I find it highly unlikely that he's actually that dumb, so he's most likely acting up.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Sat May 16, 2020 6:45 pm

tiagoabner wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 12:38 pm
41southchile wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 11:45 am
He's acting dumb, I dont think he is that dumb (or maybe he is)
He is vice-president of the Chilean senate. He was at least capable enough to get to that position, which I assume wasn't easy. I find it highly unlikely that he's actually that dumb, so he's most likely acting up.
I guess there is video of him lowering his masks, then coughing as he speaks in to the mic, and then putting his mask back on; among other things like shaking hands, kissing a female senator on the cheek (guess they both skipped that in pandemic 101).
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by frozen-north » Sun May 17, 2020 7:04 am

scandinavian wrote:

... Sweden and their looser approach ..... So even though there has been no obligation to stay at home, most people do it anyway. The other scandi countries have had very low numbers of infected & deaths, but none of them have had anything even closely resembling the kind of quarantine that is being enforced in Santiago now.

tiagoabner wrote:
It just happens that there's ample evidence from previous epidemics that these measures do work. Like this article that reviewed multiple peer-reviewed, data-driven analysis. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 133253.htm Quote:

- Quarantine of people exposed to confirmed cases may avert high proportions of infections and deaths compared to no measures.

.......
'scandinavian' was using 'quarantine' to refer to the general lockdown in effect in Santiago, where nobody can leave their homes, but the 'tiagoabner' reply and the articles quoted might be using a different definition, where only some people are subject to it. For instance, the definition on the article quoted above is:
quarantine is the restriction of people who have no symptoms, but who have had contact with people with confirmed or suspected infection

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Sun May 17, 2020 7:06 am

so the doctor was going over these numbers out of spain.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BKsVd4M1pK8

They ran antibody tests on 70,000 people.

They discovered only 5% of the population of spain has been exposed, and it costs them 27,000 people to get there, with a death rate of 1.16% mas o menos. obviously, places like madrid had higher numbers of around 14% or so, but 5% overall of spain.

so, if we were to run such numbers against Chile's population, 18 million, Chile is so far is either way ahead or way behind.

To get to herd immunity, Chile would need 12,600,000 people to have been exposed.

assuming a similar 1% fatality rate, Chile would have a death rate of around 126,000 people. That is over the life of this pandemic, not per year.

So, let's assume that 5% of the population has been exposed, that is like 900,000 people that have had it in Chile, and there should be around 9,000 deaths to go with it using the spain numbers.

my guestimate is Chile is actually somewhere around 2 to 3% exposure among the population, possibly less.

herd immunity, however you slice it, is a long way off.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Sun May 17, 2020 7:19 am

I actually have a bit of a pet theory I am working on about herd immunity. very much a work in progress, mostly for lack of data.

herd immunity comes with a lot of assumptions. chief among them is a nearly perfect distribution of people. basically everyone has an equal opportunity to be infected at all times.

well, in the same way this virus spread around the World, first taking hold in major transit points (paris, new york, madrid, etc), this virus might burnout on its own as heard immunity takes place in those large, crowed, urban transit locations.

In the same way that big bodies of water produce bigger waves, this virus is transmitted faster in bigger populations. however, once this virus has circulated in bigger city populations, it will become harder for it to be transmitted (apart from the occasional flair-up) to other parts of the country.

so, once wide immunity in major cities is established, we would really only need a much smaller portion of the population to stop or at least retard the spread of the virus to at least a reasonably manageable level, if not have it burn out altogether.

so rather than look at herd immunity as one individual, surrounded by a bunch of immune people, it could be looked at as one herd or group of people, surrounded by other herds or groups.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by tiagoabner » Sun May 17, 2020 11:52 am

frozen-north wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 7:04 am
scandinavian wrote:

... Sweden and their looser approach ..... So even though there has been no obligation to stay at home, most people do it anyway. The other scandi countries have had very low numbers of infected & deaths, but none of them have had anything even closely resembling the kind of quarantine that is being enforced in Santiago now.

tiagoabner wrote:
It just happens that there's ample evidence from previous epidemics that these measures do work. Like this article that reviewed multiple peer-reviewed, data-driven analysis. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 133253.htm Quote:

- Quarantine of people exposed to confirmed cases may avert high proportions of infections and deaths compared to no measures.

.......
'scandinavian' was using 'quarantine' to refer to the general lockdown in effect in Santiago, where nobody can leave their homes, but the 'tiagoabner' reply and the articles quoted might be using a different definition, where only some people are subject to it. For instance, the definition on the article quoted above is:
quarantine is the restriction of people who have no symptoms, but who have had contact with people with confirmed or suspected infection
You're correct, I mixed up quarantine (of asymptomatic people) with lockdown/enforced social distancing. However, also from that same study:

"In general, the combination of quarantine with other prevention and control measures, such as school closures, travel restrictions, and physical distancing, had a greater effect on the reduction of transmissions, cases which required critical care beds, and deaths compared with quarantine alone."

The issue in Chile is that people were giving zero fucks for the physical distancing and travel control guidelines. Heck, over 30 thousand people though that it would be an excellent idea to travel to small beach towns during a pandemic. I'm not sure that the measures currently in place in terms of travel restrictions are the best way to control the spread, but we have ample data that shows that Chileans will ignore government instructions unless they're forced to do so.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by frozen-north » Sun May 17, 2020 12:45 pm

tiagoabner wrote:
You're correct, I mixed up quarantine (of asymptomatic people) with lockdown/enforced social distancing.
Well, actually it was scandinavian the one that started the confusion by using 'quarantine' incorrectly, but then he was using it the same way it seems all Chile is using it.

Another 'new' expresion that bothers me is the use of 'social distance'/'social distancing'. It seems that even the WHO has stopped using it:
'American sociologist Emory Bogardos ... For him, social distance is “a measure of how much or little sympathy the members of a group feel for another group.”

https://dailyguardian.com.ph/social-distance/
The World Health Organization is officially advocating against the phrase “social distancing” and is from here on recommending the phrase “physical distancing” instead

https://futurism.com/the-byte/who-ditch ... distancing

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