coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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admin
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:44 pm

7,768 new cases, 121 deaths.

On a sunday.
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41southchile
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Sun Jun 06, 2021 4:05 pm

admin wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:44 pm
7,768 new cases, 121 deaths.

On a sunday.
Positivity is dropping off though down to 8.6 National and 11 RM
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by paladin » Sun Jun 06, 2021 4:10 pm

41southchile wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 4:05 pm
admin wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:44 pm
7,768 new cases, 121 deaths.

On a sunday.
Positivity is dropping off though down to 8.6 National and 11 RM
To me, that’s the only number that’s important. It doesnt matter the number of people positive, it’s how many they are of the total tested

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41southchile
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Sun Jun 06, 2021 4:22 pm

paladin wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 4:10 pm
41southchile wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 4:05 pm
admin wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:44 pm
7,768 new cases, 121 deaths.

On a sunday.
Positivity is dropping off though down to 8.6 National and 11 RM
To me, that’s the only number that’s important. It doesnt matter the number of people positive, it’s how many they are of the total tested
Exactly, those are the only numbers I normally look at most of the time.

Was it Stalin that said ? . One death is a tragedy; a million is a statistic.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Sun Jun 06, 2021 9:45 pm

hospitalization rates and deaths are the numbers that count.

someone feeling sick for a few days, but testing positive we can live with (or at least they can). 😆
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Sun Jun 06, 2021 10:24 pm

well, some flue strains are now MIA,

https://gizmodo.com/the-pandemic-might- ... 033924/amp
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PXYC
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by PXYC » Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:15 pm

I spoke to a doctor friend this weekend and she said the % of vaccinated people going to UCI because of COVID is very low. Good news..

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41southchile
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Mon Jun 07, 2021 10:15 am

admin wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 9:45 pm
hospitalization rates and deaths are the numbers that count.

someone feeling sick for a few days, but testing positive we can live with (or at least they can). 😆
Yes to a degree, but hospitalization numbers and mortality rates can still be worked out by positive percentage, we know the percentage of people that are dying and getting hospitalized.
The hospital rates or death rates by themselves don’t mean anything, if we don’t look at amount being tested and positive results from those.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by gringalais » Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:01 pm

admin wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 8:11 pm
so suprise, suprise, the communities with the lowest vaccination rates, are also the highest number of cases.

En la misma línea, el documento revela que Puente Alto continúa como la comuna con más casos a nivel nacional, superando los dos mil contagiantes, llegando a 2.448. La siguen Maipú (1.657); Santiago (1.454); La Florida (1.453); Peñalolén (1.210); Rancagua (1.194); Los Ángeles (1.189); y San Bernardo (1.081).
I wish they would calculate those numbers per 100,000 population. Puente Alto, Maipú, La Florida and San Bernardo are all pretty populous. Yeah, I know I could, but I am too lazy today. Here we are approaching 500 active cases but our population is much lower. It's probably per 100,000 not much better than some of those municipalities, or maybe even worse despite good vaccination numbers. I will be extremely surprised if they don't announce a new quarantine for us today.

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:27 pm

gringalais wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:01 pm
admin wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 8:11 pm
so suprise, suprise, the communities with the lowest vaccination rates, are also the highest number of cases.

En la misma línea, el documento revela que Puente Alto continúa como la comuna con más casos a nivel nacional, superando los dos mil contagiantes, llegando a 2.448. La siguen Maipú (1.657); Santiago (1.454); La Florida (1.453); Peñalolén (1.210); Rancagua (1.194); Los Ángeles (1.189); y San Bernardo (1.081).
I wish they would calculate those numbers per 100,000 population. Puente Alto, Maipú, La Florida and San Bernardo are all pretty populous. Yeah, I know I could, but I am too lazy today. Here we are approaching 500 active cases but our population is much lower. It's probably per 100,000 not much better than some of those municipalities, or maybe even worse despite good vaccination numbers. I will be extremely surprised if they don't announce a new quarantine for us today.
I something has had my brain itching for a while, and perhaps someone with better math skills can explain it to me, but the use of cases per 100,000 or cases per 1,000,000, in a small country or community, distorts the risk greatly.

Say you have a town, of 100 people. 1 person had covid.

Do we calculate that as 1 case per 100,000?

Do we divide that person by 100,000?

Like, count a foot, but not an arm as contagious?

My point is, that does not accurately reflect the transmission risks (either higher or lower) in a community or country.

In a rural area, with say 100 people, that almost never interact because they are spread over hundreds of square kilometres, that case count per 100,000 says nothing.

Now, if we have a group of 100 people, that say all live in the same building, interact just about every day, say riding the escalator, going in and out of the common areas, etc, that 1 case per 100,000 also does not reflect the true risk.

The reason this comes up, is in for example, Frutillar, I have no idea what the current cases are per 100,000; but, it does not matter. The majority of cases are concentrated in one neighborhood, highly densely populated low income housing. Yet, we have many other parts of the county, included in the population, that are extremely rural. So we have parts where the population density is probably like a couple people per km, and other parts where is thousands of people per km; yet, we are all in the same boat according to the government on a risk basis. Like, I have seen more cows this week than people.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by Fugger » Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:37 pm

PXYC wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:15 pm
I spoke to a doctor friend this weekend and she said the % of vaccinated people going to UCI because of COVID is very low. Good news..
I'm afraid it is much too high
https://www.minsal.cl/63-de-los-hospita ... -covid-19/

37% of all UCI patients are vaccinated (63% are non-vaccinated). If efficiency really would be 90%, then that percentage should be in the order of 11% (i.e. 89% from non-vaccinated).

(54% x 10%) / (54% x 10% + 46% x 100%)

where 54% percentage of vaccinated target population (and thus 46% non-vaccinated) and
where 10% = 1-90% = 1 - efficiency percentage (per definition the efficiency for non-vaccinated person is zero)

Because of these numbers I'm sceptical of all the numbers showing Sinovac working in the 90% range. Also the link posted by Admin about 50% of vaccinated people lossing their immune response after six months points in the same directions.

My best estimate is in the 30-50% efficiency range for Sinovac.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by for31 » Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:50 pm

admin wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:27 pm
My point is, that does not accurately reflect the transmission risks (either higher or lower) in a community or country.
That is correct. Suggested direct comparisons (i.e. numbers per 100,000 population) don't really make much sense because:

1. Huge variation in the sample sizes (see the law of small numbers for more details)
2. The analysis cannot be done based on the mathematical approach only. There is a significant sociological component which is often overlooked by "armchair experts"

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