coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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tiagoabner
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by tiagoabner » Thu May 13, 2021 3:48 pm

Hopefully, enough people will be vaccinated soon enough to avoid the third wave.

As of today, we have 48.5% of all adults fully vaccinated, and 58.3% with at least one dose. One dose doesn't seem to offer that much protection, but people that got the first dose should all have had their second dose within one month from today. Next week people up to age 30 will be able to get vaccinated, and presumably, we'll get to ages 24 and 18, respectively, in the next two weeks. So three weeks for now all adults in Chile will be eligible to get the vaccine, seven weeks from now everyone will be eligible to have their second doses, and nine weeks from now everyone will have had time to get their antibodies after the two-week period it takes to build antibodies once you get the last dose.

Will it be possible to get up to 70-80% of people vaccinated? 70% should be reasonably easy to get, especially when the government truly acknowledges that people do work. There need to be vaccination going on either after business hours or on weekends, ideally both. People's incomes are too squeezed right now for them to risk their jobs in order to get a vaccine, and that seems to be especially true for lower-income comunas, based on government data. If we have 70-80% of people vaccinated, the number of people at risk should be low enough that the government's lack of management skills won't matter.

I just hope that we don't have another "Summer vacation" fiasco, where restrictions were loosened too early.
I'm NOT your lawyer, accountant or financial planner. All information at this post should be considered for your entertainment only. Consult a professional before making a decision regarding whatever topic was mentioned in this post.

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admin
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Thu May 13, 2021 3:54 pm

Jamers41 wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 3:31 pm
admin wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 2:35 pm
went in to frutillar yesterday shopping. everyone was out on the streets. no police or military. never ever seen so many people out shopping.

magically today they announce we are coming out of phase 1 on monday, even though our numbers have not changed in any significant way in weeks.

In other words, when they loose control, they quit trying.
So in other words they likely gave up hope that they would see improvements in the numbers by continuing the quarantines....yeah I guess "quit trying" is an adequate way to put it.
I knew everyone in town quit giving a dam last Saturday. I was standing on my front deck at about 1:30 a.m. It was one of those nights you could hear a pin drop on the other side of the lake over 20 km away. Not a single sound, except for one. Somewhere about 5 km away from my house, in between me and the highway (I can hear the trucks out on the highway on a very still night), there was a whole mess of kids partying and blasting music. I suspect they were at a gravel pit that is over the hill from us. I could make out about 20 to 30 distinct voices, between 100 decibel music. It was probably far more. If I can hear them from my house, so can the police from just about anywhere in town.
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gringalais
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by gringalais » Thu May 13, 2021 3:54 pm

I wish they would give up hope on us. We are still stuck in lockdown. We live outside of town too and when I went in yesterday to the cultural center for my shot, it looked like a normal day apart from some businesses being closed. There was traffic on the main streets and lines to get into banks and ServiEstado.

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Thu May 13, 2021 3:58 pm

tiagoabner wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 3:48 pm
Hopefully, enough people will be vaccinated soon enough to avoid the third wave.

As of today, we have 48.5% of all adults fully vaccinated, and 58.3% with at least one dose. One dose doesn't seem to offer that much protection, but people that got the first dose should all have had their second dose within one month from today. Next week people up to age 30 will be able to get vaccinated, and presumably, we'll get to ages 24 and 18, respectively, in the next two weeks. So three weeks for now all adults in Chile will be eligible to get the vaccine, seven weeks from now everyone will be eligible to have their second doses, and nine weeks from now everyone will have had time to get their antibodies after the two-week period it takes to build antibodies once you get the last dose.

Will it be possible to get up to 70-80% of people vaccinated? 70% should be reasonably easy to get, especially when the government truly acknowledges that people do work. There need to be vaccination going on either after business hours or on weekends, ideally both. People's incomes are too squeezed right now for them to risk their jobs in order to get a vaccine, and that seems to be especially true for lower-income comunas, based on government data. If we have 70-80% of people vaccinated, the number of people at risk should be low enough that the government's lack of management skills won't matter.

I just hope that we don't have another "Summer vacation" fiasco, where restrictions were loosened too early.
Think it will be called the "election fiasco" this time. :lol:

I am super curious to see how many people show-up. There just seems to be no interest whatsoever, beyond the typical political muppet show in this election. I mean, if the old people don't seem to give much of dam about it, are confused about who to vote for and why, the interest among the younger people has got to be near zero.

Supposedly, this whole constitutional rewrite was because of their demands. I really don't want to hear them bitch about the "legitimacy" for another 30 years, because they did not show-up.
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Britkid
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by Britkid » Thu May 13, 2021 4:02 pm

tiagoabner wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 3:48 pm
One dose doesn't seem to offer that much protection,
Seems that this is very true for Sinovac, however Pfizer and Astrazeneca seems to have moderate protection levels even 1-2 weeks after first dose.

On another topic as Pfizer has now been approved for teenagers in North America I expect it's likely that Chile will Pfizer its teenagers this winter as well. Maybe about July.

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by Britkid » Thu May 13, 2021 4:05 pm

“Using known data on 121 variables, from recorded deaths to demography, we have built a pattern of correlations that lets us fill in gaps where numbers are lacking. Our model suggests that covid-19 has already claimed 7.1m-12.7m lives. Our central estimate is that 10m people have died who would otherwise be living."
“India, where about 20,000 are dying every day, is not an outlier. Our figures suggest that, in terms of deaths as a share of population, Peru’s pandemic has been 2.5 times worse than India’s.”
Source: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/ ... -the-world

Interesting data on excess deaths by country:
Source: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... hs-tracker

They state that information on excess deaths does not exist "for large swathes of Africa and Asia".

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Thu May 13, 2021 4:08 pm

admin wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 3:54 pm
Jamers41 wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 3:31 pm
admin wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 2:35 pm
went in to frutillar yesterday shopping. everyone was out on the streets. no police or military. never ever seen so many people out shopping.

magically today they announce we are coming out of phase 1 on monday, even though our numbers have not changed in any significant way in weeks.

In other words, when they loose control, they quit trying.
So in other words they likely gave up hope that they would see improvements in the numbers by continuing the quarantines....yeah I guess "quit trying" is an adequate way to put it.
I knew everyone in town quit giving a dam last Saturday. I was standing on my front deck at about 1:30 a.m. It was one of those nights you could hear a pin drop on the other side of the lake over 20 km away. Not a single sound, except for one. Somewhere about 5 km away from my house, in between me and the highway (I can hear the trucks out on the highway on a very still night), there was a whole mess of kids partying and blasting music. I suspect they were at a gravel pit that is over the hill from us. I could make out about 20 to 30 distinct voices, between 100 decibel music. It was probably far more. If I can hear them from my house, so can the police from just about anywhere in town.
You know, that was a perfectly missed opportunity to advance the vaccination program. They could have rolled out there with the cops and the health department, busted the party, told them get vaccine right now or go to jail.

Better yet, just tell them it is a new type of drug to make them able to party longer. :mrgreen:
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From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Thu May 13, 2021 4:12 pm

Britkid wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 4:05 pm
“Using known data on 121 variables, from recorded deaths to demography, we have built a pattern of correlations that lets us fill in gaps where numbers are lacking. Our model suggests that covid-19 has already claimed 7.1m-12.7m lives. Our central estimate is that 10m people have died who would otherwise be living."
“India, where about 20,000 are dying every day, is not an outlier. Our figures suggest that, in terms of deaths as a share of population, Peru’s pandemic has been 2.5 times worse than India’s.”
Source: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/ ... -the-world

Interesting data on excess deaths by country:
Source: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... hs-tracker

They state that information on excess deaths does not exist "for large swathes of Africa and Asia".
Peru has no idea how many cases they have or have had. They early on, out of a bunch of cheapskate corruption by the government, started using rapid antibody tests to diagnose cases rather than PCR tests. Which only tells you if someone has had it, over 2 weeks ago.

Peru's cases and deaths are way, way higher than anyone in the government will ever admit. The other day there was an article going around claiming everyone in Peru knows someone that has died of covid. The excess deaths studies, assumes that the statistics from previous years are even remotely correct. Given the level of corruption in Peru, I highly doubt they are even kind of accurate.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Thu May 13, 2021 4:37 pm

The bigger problem I see, is Chile is not going to be able to open it's boarders with any of the neighbors, at least not any time this winter, even if Chile gets to substantial vaccination, including kids. There is no even theoretical heard immunity without the kids. They are just to big a part of the population.

Argentina, has 1.6 million people fully vaccinated so far. looks like they are going to possibly get another 3.9 million astrazendica vaccines in may,
https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argenti ... -may.phtml

Even if there was a vaccine passport, it would be a major major mistake to trust the documentation coming in from the neighbors. Just way too much corruption and falsification to be trusted.

It is not just latin america either. The U.S. just announced they will accept home PCR tests to enter. Most transits to Latin America, go through the united states. I just don't see any way the international community can rigorously enforce vaccination documentation in such a way that a international "passport" becomes viable, until domestic covid numbers in each country drop to nearly none-existent. By that point, what is the point of a vaccine passport?
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Thu May 13, 2021 4:55 pm

I predicted last year, that July / start of August 2021 would be the magic date where things "kind of get back to normal". I am sticking with that. Chile is almost there. Getting to say 80% of adults vaccinated, and vaccination for kids underway, is totally possible within reach. End of 2021 however, is probably what it will take for there to be no cases, or just a handful of cases, in the ICUs. Again, the government seems to be dancing around the vaccine for kids issue, with no clear commitment or plan. I am sure the political muppet show will start declaring victory right around November elections, regardless if it is real or not.

In the region, I just don't see Latin America getting anywhere close to that by July. It will be at least early to mid 2022, even with a surge of vaccines suddenly becoming available in Latin America, before there is any substantial decline in cases. There will be more "waves", probably somewhere between 2-3 more in Latin America, before vaccination gets a handle on covid in the region. Some countries, 2023 before they see any vaccinations (Venezuela), and a few that will never get covid stamped out.

I also have my doubts about Europe. Even though vaccination is accelerating, there is just too much organizational chaos and their boarders are too porous. There will be more waves in Europe.

North America, I'll believe it when I see it. They got way to many political issues blocking vaccination, for covid to go away anytime this year. Their numbers might come down, but they are not going to go away this year.
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tiagoabner
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by tiagoabner » Thu May 13, 2021 5:02 pm

Britkid wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 4:02 pm
tiagoabner wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 3:48 pm
One dose doesn't seem to offer that much protection,
Seems that this is very true for Sinovac, however Pfizer and Astrazeneca seems to have moderate protection levels even 1-2 weeks after first dose.
Yes, that's absolutely right. But Chile has vaccinated roughly 90% of people with Sinovac. It's such a large share that I think it's safe to assume everyone that you run across has been vaccinated with Sinovac.
I'm NOT your lawyer, accountant or financial planner. All information at this post should be considered for your entertainment only. Consult a professional before making a decision regarding whatever topic was mentioned in this post.

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Thu May 13, 2021 5:03 pm

In terms of deaths, I would say we got at least another million more deaths to come in Latin America. Hopefully, that is all, between now and about the end of 2022.

Asia, middle east, Indonesia, India, will be where the big death numbers are going to come from through 2022, or beyond.

Ramadan is just ending. Do you think over a billion Muslims social distanced for that?

Not even close.

In about 2-3 weeks, we are going to start hearing a lot about the cases out of countries with large Muslim populations.

My guess, those countries and regions, will run at least another 10 million deaths by the end of 2022; just most of them will never be confirmed officially.

Africa, I am not even going to try to guesstimate what is going on there.
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