coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:54 pm

so thought I would share this.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI

bill gates ted talk on pandemics, from 2015 in which he warns the thing likly to kill more than 10 million people would be a virus.

but hey, no one seen this coming, or at least wants to hear 'I told you so'; even though we had over a 100 years to prepare.

Not even most of the frigen nut job preppers were ready for this. a few; but even most of them got it wrong.

but, here is words of wisdom from someone that remembers the 1918 pandemic. what does she say?

don't hide from it (try to deny it), and face it head on.

don't take any unnecessary risk.

That old lady should be training SEAL teams.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LP2YDHplOXE
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:31 pm

o.k., people in the middle of all gloom and doom, this guy has some encouraging back of the napkin stats ( FYI, napkins produce the best stats).

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... ?_amp=true
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:01 am

the doctor has some interesting new data on the death rates.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-60EvBSLulo
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:08 am

I think the instinct is right to compare deaths to total cases 14 days before.

so, in chile, if this holds, at 746 cases we should see around 37 to 40 deaths in 2 weeks.

however, that makes for noisy data, because they would really need to parse out and match when someone was diagnosed, to the particular death. for instance, what happens if the country is not testing, or is taking a long time to test? are there false positives or negatives? lots of things that are going wrong. what about people that are diagnosed only after death? what about all the people that die, and are never identified as having died from the covid-19?

just a lot of ways those numbers could be wrong.

I think the logician in me is seeing a fallacy of affirming the consequence here in this readying of the data, but I have not dug in to the lancet article.

which, in its crudest form looks like this:

IF A THEN B
B
_______
Therefore, A

which, oddly, has a tendency to be misconstrued in more complex forms as a causal relationship of

A causes B, when there really is no causal relationship. often expressed as correlation is not causation; but, here we have neither correlation nor causation, because the deaths are not mapped to the cases.

for instance, we know in itialy they have decided not to expend resources, as public policy, on older people. which makes the data completely invalid alone.

just the whole exercise seems off to me, but we see a lot of this going on right now in the media with statistics.

we really do not have reliable statistics or data, to make even proper guesses. which probably is the real scientific tragedy going on. As I see it, politicians, for all sorts of reasons, have been interfering in basic data gathering. The data we need to bench mark the progression of this pandemic, for planning purposes and other reasons.

It is stopping us from answering the most basic question of all, that the entire planet wants to know right now.

How dangerous is this disease?
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by Andres » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:08 am

ghibli wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:26 am
to Andras et al. There is a definitive diagnostic tool: a CT scan shows clearly and immediately if the lungs are filling/full of fluid. The fluid accumulation in the lungs is what causes death - by drowning! This is particular to this particular virus. The problem may be that there is currently no protocol for doing many CT scans quickly, and obviously, one can't do drive by CT scans. But, the engineer's point: establishing a baseline to test the test can be done with CT scans and good record keeping.

To People who scoff at curfews and quarantines, once the virus gets into your lungs, or the lungs of a friend or family member, you're in for a tough battle.
I do not doubt you when you say ONE of the symptoms of the Cvirus is lungs filling full of fluid.
But that does not refute my point.
My point is that we really have no idea how many people have had or do have the virus.

A. Some of the people with fluid in their in their lungs might have it from other causes. (Many of the reports I read about CV deaths is that a high percentage (though of course not all) of the people who "die from CV" had existing conditions which contributed to their death.)
B. Some of the people who have been affected by the Cvirus might not have "drowned" from fluid in their lungs.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by Andres » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:11 am

admin wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:08 am
we really do not have reliable statistics or data, to make even proper guesses. which probably is the real scientific tragedy going on. As I see it, politicians, for all sorts of reasons, have been interfering in basic data gathering. The data we need to bench mark the progression of this pandemic, for planning purposes and other reasons.

It is stopping us from answering the most basic question of all, that the entire planet wants to know right now.

How dangerous is this disease?
Exactly my point.
The data, which people assume are reliable, are very flaky.

That doesn't mean precautions should not be taken, but it also means they should not be alarmist about it.
The CV effect on population is still much smaller than other issues, such as heart disease, lung cancer, road deaths, perpetual wars and probably even annual flu seasons.

On average, approximately a million people die each week around the world at usual times.
If we assume the number of deaths from CV shown at worldometer is correct (17148), all the people who have died from CV is less than the number of people who die every three hours during usual times.
It is not worthy of the severe knicker-twisting we are encountering around the world.
Chile: My expectations are low. Very low.
I accept chaos. I'm not sure whether it accepts me.

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:17 am

well, seems many politicians, led by Trump, in the united states are willing to conduct a suicide experiment to save the economy (it won't save the economy, if you don't fix the problem).


https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/2905175001

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/23/poli ... index.html
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:24 am

because this virus is all very inconvenient for Chump and friends:

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-sho ... d-n1166391
Two days later, the New York Times reported on government exercises, including one conducted just last year, warning officials that the country was ill-prepared for a pandemic. As the article explained, an unreleased HHS report described a likely outcome that sounds awfully familiar: "Federal agencies jockeyed over who was in charge. State officials and hospitals struggled to figure out what kind of equipment was stockpiled or available. Cities and states went their own ways on school closings."
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:29 am

I think we are going to just have to nominate the people in Washington D.C. for whole lot of Darwin awards this year. They seem hell bent on removing themselves from the gene pool.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:30 am

admin wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:17 am
well, seems many politicians, led by Trump, in the united states are willing to conduct a suicide experiment to save the economy (it won't save the economy, if you don't fix the problem).


https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/2905175001

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/23/poli ... index.html
Omg America you are fucked with this guy in charge
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52009108
Unless every state ignores him and shutdown anyway , like they have been with no federal guidance, or unless Trump dies from coronavirus which would do all the potential victims and the world a big favor
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by Andres » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:46 am

admin wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:01 am
the doctor has some interesting new data on the death rates.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-60EvBSLulo
While his statements are usually quite rational, I suggest his grasp of statistics is lacking.

For example, near the beginning of this video he says that because the percentage cases of people in the 51 - 70 age group and >70 age group are almost the same, "this seems to be showing that roughly over the age of about 50 your chances of getting the disease don't go up tremendously. The number of cases in that age group indicate that."
That is only true if the number of people in the two age groups are equal.
They are not.
Look at this distribution of age groups in Italy in 2018: https://www.indexmundi.com/italy/age_structure.html
The number of people 51 - 70 are significantly more than the number who are >70.
Therefore, there is a SIGNIFICANT increase in likelihood you will get the disease as you get older than 50.


Another flaw is caused by assumptions he makes in his use of statistics.
He comments that there is "a disappointing low number of 70%" for people who have No, Unspecified (meaning minimal), few and mild symptoms from the CV.
That is a valid conclusion only if EVERYONE who contracted the CV was tested. We know that is a fallacy. Especially with the lack of test kits, why would everyone who has no or few symptoms go get tested?
I suggest there are probably many, many people who have or had the virus who never got tested, purely because they had no or few symptoms.
My claim is we don't know the real statistics, and the percentage of people mildly or not affected by CV are probably higher than stated.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by Andres » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:55 am

admin wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:29 am
I think we are going to just have to nominate the people in Washington D.C. for whole lot of Darwin awards this year. They seem hell bent on removing themselves from the gene pool.
The world should be so lucky!
Chile: My expectations are low. Very low.
I accept chaos. I'm not sure whether it accepts me.

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