Corona Virus! (OLD)

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:19 pm

I seen one expert that modelled the spread, at least 100,000 infected in the next 10 days.

Now, what we are still not seeing is lots of young, relatively healthy people dying of this. So far, it seems to be 40+ year old people that are getting sick, and even older that are dying with various complications.

80 dead, in however many weeks, is still a rounding error in China. More people just died crossing the street in Wuhan, in the time it took me to write this sentence.
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:20 pm

I take that back. Thinking about how bad everyone in China is at driving (they are still new to it), this quarantine probably did save thousands of lives. It got millions of new, very inexperienced, drivers off the road for a few days.
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:33 pm

Two teams of British epidemiologists released studies over the weekend estimating that each infected person was spreading the disease to two or three people. A team from Lancaster University projected that infections in Wuhan could explode to 190,000 cases by as soon as next week.
from Washington post article.

so, it should be about 3 to 4 weeks before this thing really takes hold.

about the time the lunar new year is over.

I would call it about 6 to 8 weeks in Chile.

about also the time Chileans come back from vacation, kids go back to school and university ( Chile's greatest source of everything wonderful).

Which means it should be good and rip roaring by April 26, the national vote for the constitution.

would not that just be the irony of irony. constitutional vote canceled on account of a virus outbreak. subsequently all the little wankers in plaza itialia go bat shit crazy with far right conspiracy theories that it was all just to stop the vote, spreading the virus amongst themselves.

Where can I buy one of those planet of the apes posters?

:lol:
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:43 pm

guessing based on thos numbers, we are at something around 140 million infected world wide in 6 weeks, assuming nothing seriously mutates in the meantime to change those rates.

one expert pointed out it took SARS 3 to 4 months to mutate to be easily passed from human to human. It took this bug a month.
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:19 pm

hong kong experts believe there is already about 44,000 cases in wuhan.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hea ... perts-call
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:12 pm

seems peru is confirming 4 suspect cases of people that traveled to wuhan.

https://www.t13.cl/amp/noticia/mundo/pe ... oronavirus
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by tiagoabner » Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:25 pm

We need to get more info on how it is transmitted before we can really understand how big of a problem this is. It seems that it can be transmitted like a flu and it's highly transmissible, so a widespread epidemy is actually possible. Given enough people being infected, the death count can soar pretty high.

Chinese in general, and politicians especially, all live by the concept of "face" (among others). If suppressing information about how much the disease has spread will help them save face, then that's what they will do.
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GringoVikingo
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by GringoVikingo » Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:29 pm

Was on Easy today, to buy something for my caneria, and pick up some N95 certified mask as well.
If panic break out, the shelf will be empty, and a black market showing up.

As I understand this flu have symptoms of pneumonia..
I experience pneumonia as 17 years old, no flu or cold after that came close to how bad i feel back then.

Uk expert run a computer simulation back in October of this virus, and worst case scenario was 65 000 000 dead globally.
We have to wait, for a week or two before we see ow bad this is.

The marked have insiders, so they maybe know thing before most people.
Not only do I not know what's going on, I wouldn't know what to do about it if I did.
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by mem » Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:34 pm

The N95s are selling out in a lot of places. Price gouging on amazon.

FYI There are N95's and P100 filters for perma respirators on mercado libre still. (N95=95.7% effective filtration, no oil resistant, P100=99.7% effective filtration and oil proof)


I have heard that the virus spreads easily via eyes, which is why so many medical people in wuhan ended up getting it in spite of them using masks over their mouth and nose. It makes sense that a virus should just as easily catch via the eyes as nose or mouth.

The virus is 0.12 microns and the N95's supposedly filter down to .3 microns...some people think they are not helpful, but it is proven that they are helpful in reducing exposure since the carrier of the virus when airborne are much larger moisture droplets (5 micron) from mucous.

A news reporter that has been in Wuhan this whole time and not trying to get out anymore, is using swim goggles and and doubled up N95 face masks whenever he goes out of his house.

It is a shame that the air travel was not controlled more effectively with this in the earlier stages (like 2 weeks ago)

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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by Ripsigg » Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:51 am

For some conspiracy theory fun:

Wuhan is the location of the largest BSL-4 in China.
https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the- ... LwY6-adIJQ

Scientists are amazed that it took just a week for China to do all of these things:
1. Identification
2. Sequencing
3. Sequencing of related virus in bats
4. Create diagnostic test
5. Serology
6. Virus isolation
7. Experimental validation of receptor

https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status ... EAuoaSmX7Q

A Chinese researcher studying coronaviruses and with connections to the BSL-4 Lab in Wuhan was escorted from the premises of Canada's only BSL-4 lab by the RCMP in July for policy breaches.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba ... -1.5211567

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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:14 am

GringoVikingo wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:29 pm
Was on Easy today, to buy something for my caneria, and pick up some N95 certified mask as well.
If panic break out, the shelf will be empty, and a black market showing up.

As I understand this flu have symptoms of pneumonia..
I experience pneumonia as 17 years old, no flu or cold after that came close to how bad i feel back then.

Uk expert run a computer simulation back in October of this virus, and worst case scenario was 65 000 000 dead globally.
We have to wait, for a week or two before we see ow bad this is.


The marked have insiders, so they maybe know thing before most people.
uuuhm, that was not a simulation of this virus. In fact the gates foundation that funded that simulation had to put out a statement to that effect because a bunch moron reporters were reporting it just like that. It was a simulation of a spanish flue like virus in a modern setting. even at that, there were a bunch of very questionable initial conditions and assumptions used to get a 65 million person death toll.
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:33 am

besides, no need for fictional hypotheticals, we got the real deal case study:

here are some of the better documentaries on the spanish flu on YouTube I have watched. I got on a kick watching YouTube historical documentaries a few months back, and somehow got sucked in to watching the history of the spanish flue while studying WW l. Let's just say they never talked much about it in either high school or university history classes:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c

this a series of short clips, as an animated set of cartoons, but it actually really well done:
https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLh ... qIejFf4Rh2

great lecture on the origins of the spanish flue, dna, impact, etc.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=48Klc3DPdtk

one of my favorite stories from one of those documentaries, was a guy in Australia got on a trolly coming home from work. everyone had the flue. three people died in the course of the ride. finally the driver died. the trolly stopped, and he had to walk home the rest of the way. not sure how true that was, but the fact story has hung around...
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