The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
Forum rules
Moderation of this forum will be very strict compared to other sections of the Chile Forum. “Spamming”, “Trolling”, promotion of “fake news”, “conspiracy theories” or otherwise interfering with the dissemination of accurate information in this dedicated “Crisis Forum” will result in deletion of posts, and repeat offenders will have their accounts banned.
User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 22673
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:23 pm

yea, a lot of these polls are somewhere between bad, and completely wrong.

I was just talking to my sister in law. both my brother in law and my mother in law are in theory registered to vote (even though they never have in their life), but they are registered in Santiago. They have both been in the south for over 5 years, but the change of address is not automatic. they missed the deadline to change.

now, without the pandemic, a lot of people travel to vote. even crossing the country to where they are registered. I doubt there will be a whole lot of that.

I am not sure how read the university students, that often live in one place and are registered somewhere else, considering the universities are mostly out of session. does that mean more of them can vote or less?

point being, that these polls where they call people up (doubt in person questions are even possible right now), and ask 'likly voters' is a whole different thing for them to actually show-up and vote.

Then there is the whole open hostility to anyone showing any support for rechazo. would you answer honestly to a random stranger on the phone given the climate?

young students are notorious for just screwing with people that take polls

so I would take the whole polling thing with a grain of salt, a lime slice, and a shot of tequila.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 22673
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:35 pm

here is the problem and my read on it right now.

there are a lot of very loud, and at times hostile, people on the left supporting the 'aprove'

among them is a large segment that have never voted before, say they will, but a high probability they will not show-up to vote. among them is a large segment that have never voted before or just spoiled their ballot back when it was mandatory, exactly because they thought the system was rigged, unfair, ect, ect

however, in chile the right is far more disciplined and will show-up and actually vote; and this time they are pissed and motivated. most will not say anything to anyone, because of the open hostility from the left of violence.

There are also a lot of "fence sitters" on the whole subject. they would tend to vote left, but that may not translate in to a vote for approve in this context.

remeber, in spite of all the bitching chileans do, millions upon millions have come out of poverty or otherwise benefited from the current system. It is not just the rich.

Are they really willing to risk it all when they finally are inside a voting booth; regardless of what they say to their friends and family, for some fuzzy promises the left is making?

I don' t think so, because at the end of the day most chileans are extremely conservative, and not big on taking risks.

perhaps I am wrong. guess we will see.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 22673
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:44 pm

all that said, I am honestly more concerned about the stupidity in the united states right now. It probably means more for Chile's future than this local constitutional dog and pony show.

If the global economy crashes, they can put anything they want in a constution, and it is not going to matter one bit.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
41southchile
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 2014
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 2:39 pm

Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by 41southchile » Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:04 am

admin wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:23 pm
yea, a lot of these polls are somewhere between bad, and completely wrong.

I was just talking to my sister in law. both my brother in law and my mother in law are in theory registered to vote (even though they never have in their life), but they are registered in Santiago. They have both been in the south for over 5 years, but the change of address is not automatic. they missed the deadline to change.

now, without the pandemic, a lot of people travel to vote. even crossing the country to where they are registered. I doubt there will be a whole lot of that.

I am not sure how read the university students, that often live in one place and are registered somewhere else, considering the universities are mostly out of session. does that mean more of them can vote or less?

point being, that these polls where they call people up (doubt in person questions are even possible right now), and ask 'likly voters' is a whole different thing for them to actually show-up and vote.

Then there is the whole open hostility to anyone showing any support for rechazo. would you answer honestly to a random stranger on the phone given the climate?

young students are notorious for just screwing with people that take polls

so I would take the whole polling thing with a grain of salt, a lime slice, and a shot of tequila.
Na polls/surveys are not reliable. The amount of people who will not vote will be relatively high on Sunday(the vote should never have gone ahead at this point in time in my opinion, but it is).
I know several people who are not voting, for various reasons , the fear of coronavirus will deter more.
The right are not THAT disciplined if history is anything to go by, in this case they may well be, most of the time they are as just as fickle as everyone else .
I guess we will see on Sunday. I think a lot of things have been blown out of proportion, just like Chileans are hypochondriac, they too are prone to over exaggeration , as, I say let's wait for Sunday.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

User avatar
41southchile
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 2014
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 2:39 pm

Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by 41southchile » Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:08 am

admin wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:44 pm
all that said, I am honestly more concerned about the stupidity in the united states right now. It probably means more for Chile's future than this local constitutional dog and pony show.

If the global economy crashes, they can put anything they want in a constution, and it is not going to matter one bit.
Meh, they are strong enough to get through the current shit show, I would hope, wasn't their setup designed so it can't be brought down by the likes of one orange face baffon, as for other issues, well they made it through the 60s didn't they?
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

User avatar
41southchile
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 2014
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 2:39 pm

Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by 41southchile » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:25 am

Good time to be a retailer, especially a butcher or alcohol seller another 10 percent on the way most likely
https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/ ... divar.html
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 22673
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:12 pm

41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:08 am
admin wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:44 pm
all that said, I am honestly more concerned about the stupidity in the united states right now. It probably means more for Chile's future than this local constitutional dog and pony show.

If the global economy crashes, they can put anything they want in a constution, and it is not going to matter one bit.
Meh, they are strong enough to get through the current shit show, I would hope, wasn't their setup designed so it can't be brought down by the likes of one orange face baffon, as for other issues, well they made it through the 60s didn't they?
In theory, it was designed so the king of the orange faced baffoons could not get elected in the first place, and if he did act like the orange faced baffon, congress could remove him.

Turns out, and this a long and very detailed point of history, the founding fathers made a critical error in the constution. They mistakenly assumed that the majority of the senate would not be so corrupt as to not remove said baffon.

in fact, extensively discussed in the federalist papers. they give detailed reasoning for not setting harder and faster rules. in fact it comes off as extremely idealistic / naive view of human nature, for a otherwise cautious group of writers. I plan to dive in to the historical gory details later, when I get some free time. rather fascinating that they would make such a fundemantal error.

The bigger problem in the united states is the corrosive nature of a two party Monopoly. They tend to spend their colective free time undermining their greatest enemy: the people.

In fact, I believe both the Democratic party and the Republican party have become little better than than two royal families taking turns swapping power, and the surfs be damned. let them eat cake. basically the war of the roses.

shakespeare would be best equipped to deal with these issues.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 22673
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:29 pm

oddly, reading the federalist papers in detail, and supporting research, has been on my 'to do' list, both in regards to chile's new constution and what the hell went wrong with the u.s. constution this last year.

U.S. revolution related history never really held my attention much, even though I have read parts of the federalist papers. Not the sexiest part of american history (bunch of rich bitchy white guys that did not like paying taxes, bla, bla, bla).

Just knowing what the federalist papers are, and have read more than a few pages, probably still puts me far ahead of most history teachers in the united states (I was one class short of a history degree, and one class short of a sociology degree; but, 50 cents and both degrees still will not buy you a cup of coffee). :lol: :shock:

Think it is time to devote some time to digging in to them. whatever else they might be, they really are sort of 'how to write a constution from scratch 101'. probably a good place to start.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
41southchile
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 2014
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 2:39 pm

Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by 41southchile » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:16 am

admin wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:12 pm
41southchile wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:08 am
admin wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:44 pm
all that said, I am honestly more concerned about the stupidity in the united states right now. It probably means more for Chile's future than this local constitutional dog and pony show.

If the global economy crashes, they can put anything they want in a constution, and it is not going to matter one bit.
Meh, they are strong enough to get through the current shit show, I would hope, wasn't their setup designed so it can't be brought down by the likes of one orange face baffon, as for other issues, well they made it through the 60s didn't they?
In theory, it was designed so the king of the orange faced baffoons could not get elected in the first place, and if he did act like the orange faced baffon, congress could remove him.

Turns out, and this a long and very detailed point of history, the founding fathers made a critical error in the constution. They mistakenly assumed that the majority of the senate would not be so corrupt as to not remove said baffon.

in fact, extensively discussed in the federalist papers. they give detailed reasoning for not setting harder and faster rules. in fact it comes off as extremely idealistic / naive view of human nature, for a otherwise cautious group of writers. I plan to dive in to the historical gory details later, when I get some free time. rather fascinating that they would make such a fundemantal error.

The bigger problem in the united states is the corrosive nature of a two party Monopoly. They tend to spend their colective free time undermining their greatest enemy: the people.

In fact, I believe both the Democratic party and the Republican party have become little better than than two royal families taking turns swapping power, and the surfs be damned. let them eat cake. basically the war of the roses.

shakespeare would be best equipped to deal with these issues.
Interesting stuff, might have to dust off my American History original documents book that I bought last year , and have yet to read (I listened to a podcast the other day titled "why we buy books and don't read them", so I'm glad I'm not the only one). Anyway its going to be an interesting day today for sure .
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

Jamers41
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 292
Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2017 2:11 pm

Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Jamers41 » Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:11 pm

admin wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:29 pm
oddly, reading the federalist papers in detail, and supporting research, has been on my 'to do' list, both in regards to chile's new constution and what the hell went wrong with the u.s. constution this last year.

U.S. revolution related history never really held my attention much, even though I have read parts of the federalist papers. Not the sexiest part of american history (bunch of rich bitchy white guys that did not like paying taxes, bla, bla, bla).

Just knowing what the federalist papers are, and have read more than a few pages, probably still puts me far ahead of most history teachers in the united states (I was one class short of a history degree, and one class short of a sociology degree; but, 50 cents and both degrees still will not buy you a cup of coffee). :lol: :shock:

Think it is time to devote some time to digging in to them. whatever else they might be, they really are sort of 'how to write a constution from scratch 101'. probably a good place to start.
Soooo......any chance then of yourself or your wife or someone you know then running to become a 'constituyente' next year and making a positive contribution? I'm sure Chile could use it.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 22673
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:51 pm

Jamers41 wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:11 pm
admin wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:29 pm
oddly, reading the federalist papers in detail, and supporting research, has been on my 'to do' list, both in regards to chile's new constution and what the hell went wrong with the u.s. constution this last year.

U.S. revolution related history never really held my attention much, even though I have read parts of the federalist papers. Not the sexiest part of american history (bunch of rich bitchy white guys that did not like paying taxes, bla, bla, bla).

Just knowing what the federalist papers are, and have read more than a few pages, probably still puts me far ahead of most history teachers in the united states (I was one class short of a history degree, and one class short of a sociology degree; but, 50 cents and both degrees still will not buy you a cup of coffee). :lol: :shock:

Think it is time to devote some time to digging in to them. whatever else they might be, they really are sort of 'how to write a constution from scratch 101'. probably a good place to start.
Soooo......any chance then of yourself or your wife or someone you know then running to become a 'constituyente' next year and making a positive contribution? I'm sure Chile could use it.
I can niether confirm nor deny that.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

passport
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 604
Joined: Mon May 14, 2007 11:39 pm
Location: USA

Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by passport » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:07 pm

Let's draft them

Post Reply