The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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41southchile
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by 41southchile » Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:01 pm

admin wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:35 am
So, at least in los lagos, the constitutional reform is pretty far down everyone's priority list.

20200909_073145.jpg

Wich can also be dangerous. One thing for example is not being interested in some ho hum election. Another is ignoring what is written in to a new constitution. That is probably what all the politions are banking.
Another thing I was thinking about that post and the constitution issue being a low priority, according to that survey. For me however, its pretty much only Southerners of German descent I've heard who talk about civil war, anyone else heard comments similar to that? Ive mostly heard the "we are heading for civil war " , comments mostly from older Chileans, mostly(65 +) listen to your elders most cultures say.

Edit: sorry my FIL in Arica is convinced of it too, civil strife/war
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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41southchile
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by 41southchile » Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:06 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:54 pm
Another point is that while a vote for new Constitution may appear to be a blank Cheque, its pretty clear that the Left wing have already drafted their version.

Having already come so far in successfully undermining the state, they would be silly not to have their next moves already prepared.

So they are offering a blank cheque with invisible writing that will later be revealed, and whose "revolutionary" propositions will be ramrodded through whatever travesty of government survives an "apruebo" plebiscite outcome, using all the methods at their disposal....
.
ganar perder.png
yup, its game on alright, unless the country gets a strong leader, because a unifying one is pretty much an impossibility.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by tiagoabner » Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:25 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:54 pm
Another point is that while a vote for new Constitution may appear to be a blank Cheque, its pretty clear that the Left wing have already drafted their version.

Having already come so far in successfully undermining the state, they would be silly not to have their next moves already prepared.

So they are offering a blank cheque with invisible writing that will later be revealed, and whose "revolutionary" propositions will be ramrodded through whatever travesty of government survives an "apruebo" plebiscite outcome, using all the methods at their disposal....
.
ganar perder.png
The silver lining is that the Chilean left is very divided and uncoordinated. See Recoleta's mayor Jadue, for example. He has recently spilled the beans that his party has plans to nationalize the AFP retirement accounts. I find it really hard to believe that he came up with that on his own, or that there haven't been lots of talks within the Communist Party about that. Now, the thing is that the best way for him (and PCCh) to achieve their goals would've been to keep their mouths shut until they had managed to win the vote for a new constitution. Fortunately, they aren't good enough politicians to pull that out.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Jamers41 » Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:53 pm

tiagoabner wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:25 pm
fraggle092 wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:54 pm
Another point is that while a vote for new Constitution may appear to be a blank Cheque, its pretty clear that the Left wing have already drafted their version.

Having already come so far in successfully undermining the state, they would be silly not to have their next moves already prepared.

So they are offering a blank cheque with invisible writing that will later be revealed, and whose "revolutionary" propositions will be ramrodded through whatever travesty of government survives an "apruebo" plebiscite outcome, using all the methods at their disposal....
.
ganar perder.png
The silver lining is that the Chilean left is very divided and uncoordinated. See Recoleta's mayor Jadue, for example. He has recently spilled the beans that his party has plans to nationalize the AFP retirement accounts. I find it really hard to believe that he came up with that on his own, or that there haven't been lots of talks within the Communist Party about that. Now, the thing is that the best way for him (and PCCh) to achieve their goals would've been to keep their mouths shut until they had managed to win the vote for a new constitution. Fortunately, they aren't good enough politicians to pull that out.
This is what I've tried to emphasize at other times here on this forum, there are a LOT of different political parties that are officially opposed to the government under Piñera and they have rarely acted in coordination when they are the ones in power. Jadue is a great example, just a week or two ago he said something to the effect of "I am very much available to run for president"......to which big shot politicians of other left parties (both far left and center left) responded "Well hold on, we will definitely have primaries." And then sure enough, just a few days ago Jadue backtracked and stated he "never committed to run for president" .....obviously I am paraphrasing a bit, but social media had some good laughs out of that one.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by fraggle092 » Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:00 pm

tiagoabner wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:25 pm
The silver lining is that the Chilean left is very divided and uncoordinated. See Recoleta's mayor Jadue, for example. He has recently spilled the beans that his party has plans to nationalize the AFP retirement accounts. I find it really hard to believe that he came up with that on his own, or that there haven't been lots of talks within the Communist Party about that.
Jadue was reported in the media as a leading potential presidential candidate, up there with Lavín.
Among some of his declarations :

Anti-police violence.
Frequent antisemitic rants.
Attempts to force the purchase of Cuban drugs which he claimed would cure Covid-19.
A proposal of Ocean access for Bolivia.
And grabbing the AFP money as well.

I cannot believe that anyone other than another Communist could approve of him, and have to question the impartiality of the media. The alternative is that Chileans have gone off the rails.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by 41southchile » Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:13 pm

Im a fan of some of Lao Tzus philosophy , I believe it was him that said
"There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent"
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Jamers41 » Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:23 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:00 pm
tiagoabner wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:25 pm
The silver lining is that the Chilean left is very divided and uncoordinated. See Recoleta's mayor Jadue, for example. He has recently spilled the beans that his party has plans to nationalize the AFP retirement accounts. I find it really hard to believe that he came up with that on his own, or that there haven't been lots of talks within the Communist Party about that.
Jadue was reported in the media as a leading potential presidential candidate, up there with Lavín.
Among some of his declarations :

Anti-police violence.
Frequent antisemitic rants.
Attempts to force the purchase of Cuban drugs which he claimed would cure Covid-19.
A proposal of Ocean access for Bolivia.
And grabbing the AFP money as well.

I cannot believe that anyone other than another Communist could approve of him, and have to question the impartiality of the media. The alternative is that Chileans have gone off the rails.
Sounds like plenty of fodder for somebody to throw in his face.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Jamers41 » Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:24 pm

41southchile wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:13 pm
Im a fan of some of Lao Tzus philosophy , I believe it was him that said
"There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent"
True, very wise words.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:12 pm

41southchile wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:01 pm
admin wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:35 am
So, at least in los lagos, the constitutional reform is pretty far down everyone's priority list.

20200909_073145.jpg

Wich can also be dangerous. One thing for example is not being interested in some ho hum election. Another is ignoring what is written in to a new constitution. That is probably what all the politions are banking.
Another thing I was thinking about that post and the constitution issue being a low priority, according to that survey. For me however, its pretty much only Southerners of German descent I've heard who talk about civil war, anyone else heard comments similar to that? Ive mostly heard the "we are heading for civil war " , comments mostly from older Chileans, mostly(65 +) listen to your elders most cultures say.

Edit: sorry my FIL in Arica is convinced of it too, civil strife/war
I have not heard anyone really say that; but, that does not mean it could not happen. Believe it is mostly rhtoric of frustrated right wingers.

War implies some level of organization, command control, long term planning, leadership, objectives and goals, financing, logistics, establishing and maintaining lines of communication, etc. Most importantly, some sort of clear political objectives.

Contrary to popular myths about wars being chaose, war is in fact a suprisingly complex, delicate, and well ordered system that if any of the basic conditions fail to obtain, a war can not be sustained for very long. Battles might be chaotic, but wars rarely are chaotic.

Tsung Tzu, "war is like a fire. If you do not put it out, it will burn itself out".

Basically if any group of politicians could get that organized, we would not be in this mess to start.

Niether the left nor the right in chile can seem to get their shit together to make a cup of Nescafe; let alone a war.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:47 pm

As said before. nothing changes or perhaps not an exact repeat but history rhymes:

Antifa and allied commie types are highly ideologically motivated and I expect to see US learned tactics applied here just as they applied Chile learned tactics in the recent Empire disorders. Given the NGOs (cover for both the figurehead and invisible PTB) and international criminal/drugs/arms/people/trafficking networks (CIA involvement?) and such, they are the new Soviet/Cuba "help" for the revolution.

AND

The same Chile right that enabled US intelligence (CIA playing both sides?) to "help" the reaction to the left's terror, may once again easily garner the law and order support of the majority of Chileans who just want to live, work and play in stability and peace.

We foreigners here have a front row seat and many of us will get to vote, enjoy!!
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the other is to refuse to believe what is true.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:07 am

I just don't see a proper civil war ever happening in chile.

There might, might, be able to muster small insurgent type groups that are more of annoyance than a real threat; but, even that is a stretch. Hell, I have doubts about the chilean military ability to sustain a fight for very long.

Think about this. What goes in to training and equipping an effective fighting force?

A lot of money and a large pool of existing expertise in warfair. Start with chile has no military industrial complex. Everything would have to be imported. There is probably no one in the country that even produces combat boots; let alone any weapons.

How many people in this country have ever fired more than a thousand rounds through a gun, any gun? How many people in this country have even held a gun more than once or twice? Forget handling an automatic weapon for the moment. Just a 12 guage or hand gun.


Lets say, including exmilitary, there are perhaps a few hundred thousand people with any firearms experience at all. Even among military and police, most have not fired their weapons more than beyond few hundred rounds in basic training. We found back in October, not even the police had fired a shotgun more than a couple times durring training.

Eliminate everyone with that experience over 30. War is generally a young persons game. Mostly male. So, down to a few 10's of thousand, even eligible. Not that older people could not fight, just statistically they are less inclined to fight. Just like older people tend to be less interested in immigrating to a new country.

Now, equip, organize, and train them. Probably going to run about $5,000 per solider, with nothing fancy. Just a basic, automic weapon, amo, etc.

Now, try and get say 10 thousand chileans to showup at dawn for training.

O.k., that gets you some cannon fodder. How about leaders?

Where you going to find sufficient experienced NCOs? How about officers with experience? How about a general or two with a clue about tactics and strategies? There is probably no more than a few hundred people in the country with any sort of combat experience (mostly x-military that did some contractor work after leaving the military).

Now obviously, plenty of armies have gotten on the job training; but, typically that learning curve is expensive as it takes big forces, to sustain big losses, while the commanders figure out what the hell they are doing (or get killed themselves trying). Historically that is at least a couple year process. Getting slaughtered en mass is not exactly good for recruiting quatas

Now, as a general rule of war, for every guy behind the tigger, you need 10 to 20 people supporting them. Everything from logistics to simply providing food and shelter. Hard to fight a war, when your troops need to hold down a day job.

Now, organize a platoon, a battalian a division?

The problems go on and on.

if you look around the history of modern conflict in latin america, pretty much every single one had massive outside support from state actors (e.g. russia or the united states). The drug cartels were able to support various rebel groups with money and weapons, but there again those groups had to have a day job (protecting the drug industry). Even those never got very big. Like very unusual they ever exceeded 50,000 armed men. Even among the drug cartels, war is generally not good for buisness after a certain level of conflict.

It would have to involve the full on invasion of foriegn actors and resources for a war to get off the ground, and keep it going.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by 41southchile » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:39 am

admin wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:12 pm
41southchile wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:01 pm
admin wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:35 am
So, at least in los lagos, the constitutional reform is pretty far down everyone's priority list.

20200909_073145.jpg

Wich can also be dangerous. One thing for example is not being interested in some ho hum election. Another is ignoring what is written in to a new constitution. That is probably what all the politions are banking.
Another thing I was thinking about that post and the constitution issue being a low priority, according to that survey. For me however, its pretty much only Southerners of German descent I've heard who talk about civil war, anyone else heard comments similar to that? Ive mostly heard the "we are heading for civil war " , comments mostly from older Chileans, mostly(65 +) listen to your elders most cultures say.

Edit: sorry my FIL in Arica is convinced of it too, civil strife/war
I have not heard anyone really say that; but, that does not mean it could not happen. Believe it is mostly rhtoric of frustrated right wingers.

War implies some level of organization, command control, long term planning, leadership, objectives and goals, financing, logistics, establishing and maintaining lines of communication, etc. Most importantly, some sort of clear political objectives.

Contrary to popular myths about wars being chaose, war is in fact a suprisingly complex, delicate, and well ordered system that if any of the basic conditions fail to obtain, a war can not be sustained for very long. Battles might be chaotic, but wars rarely are chaotic.

Tsung Tzu, "war is like a fire. If you do not put it out, it will burn itself out".

Basically if any group of politicians could get that organized, we would not be in this mess to start.

Niether the left nor the right in chile can seem to get their shit together to make a cup of Nescafe; let alone a war.
Yeah could well be just frustrated right wingers, yeah you are probably right, maybe war is a bit of a stretch or not the right word🤔.
Civil conflict? One definition I saw defined a civil war as 1000 casualty deaths a year, a civil conflict is considered 25 deaths a year, (so I guess we are already in a civil conflict,) the rest of the study was in French.
Anyway I'm just repeating what possible paranoid old timers have said. Civil War/civil conflict I'm not sure it can be clearly pigeon holed, but it's not going to be business as usual that's for sure here in Chile in the coming years. The outcomes are becoming baked in from a complete lack of political leadership, to growing frustration and vigil anti tendencies, multiple fronts and sources of tensions opening up, from class division to indigenous population uprising to anarchists to narco crime etc etc. Perhaps not war as such but possibly just as ugly in terms of damage it will do to society.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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