I just don't see a proper civil war ever happening in chile.
There might, might, be able to muster small insurgent type groups that are more of annoyance than a real threat; but, even that is a stretch. Hell, I have doubts about the chilean military ability to sustain a fight for very long.
Think about this. What goes in to training and equipping an effective fighting force?
A lot of money and a large pool of existing expertise in warfair. Start with chile has no military industrial complex. Everything would have to be imported. There is probably no one in the country that even produces combat boots; let alone any weapons.
How many people in this country have ever fired more than a thousand rounds through a gun, any gun? How many people in this country have even held a gun more than once or twice? Forget handling an automatic weapon for the moment. Just a 12 guage or hand gun.
Lets say, including exmilitary, there are perhaps a few hundred thousand people with any firearms experience at all. Even among military and police, most have not fired their weapons more than beyond few hundred rounds in basic training. We found back in October, not even the police had fired a shotgun more than a couple times durring training.
Eliminate everyone with that experience over 30. War is generally a young persons game. Mostly male. So, down to a few 10's of thousand, even eligible. Not that older people could not fight, just statistically they are less inclined to fight. Just like older people tend to be less interested in immigrating to a new country.
Now, equip, organize, and train them. Probably going to run about $5,000 per solider, with nothing fancy. Just a basic, automic weapon, amo, etc.
Now, try and get say 10 thousand chileans to showup at dawn for training.
O.k., that gets you some cannon fodder. How about leaders?
Where you going to find sufficient experienced NCOs? How about officers with experience? How about a general or two with a clue about tactics and strategies? There is probably no more than a few hundred people in the country with any sort of combat experience (mostly x-military that did some contractor work after leaving the military).
Now obviously, plenty of armies have gotten on the job training; but, typically that learning curve is expensive as it takes big forces, to sustain big losses, while the commanders figure out what the hell they are doing (or get killed themselves trying). Historically that is at least a couple year process. Getting slaughtered en mass is not exactly good for recruiting quatas
Now, as a general rule of war, for every guy behind the tigger, you need 10 to 20 people supporting them. Everything from logistics to simply providing food and shelter. Hard to fight a war, when your troops need to hold down a day job.
Now, organize a platoon, a battalian a division?
The problems go on and on.
if you look around the history of modern conflict in latin america, pretty much every single one had massive outside support from state actors (e.g. russia or the united states). The drug cartels were able to support various rebel groups with money and weapons, but there again those groups had to have a day job (protecting the drug industry). Even those never got very big. Like very unusual they ever exceeded 50,000 armed men. Even among the drug cartels, war is generally not good for buisness after a certain level of conflict.
It would have to involve the full on invasion of foriegn actors and resources for a war to get off the ground, and keep it going.
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