The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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tiagoabner
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by tiagoabner » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:08 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:26 pm
tiagoabner wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:13 pm

I wonder if I should start to look at government jobs. I mean, it sounds like they pay well and it is quite laid back. ANd I doubt banks would be giving me the stink eye treatment when I tried to open accounts at them if I was working at the government.
Not a bad idea. Unfortunately, most of Chile got there already And these are only the ones that admitted to it...
They are very selective here about what they regard as desigualdad.
.

Más de un tercio de funcionarios públicos reconoce haber obtenido trabajo con pitutos .png
Yeah. I just took a look at it and it seems that most well-paying positions are reserved for political appointments. I wonder how much correlation there is between that and how inefficient public service is here. :lol:
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Thu Jul 23, 2020 4:17 pm

here is something interesting for those stuck in quarantine.

"The battle of Spain" by Atony Bevoor, audio book in English on YouTube:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8w8tj2DMvIw

when you listen to the political mess detailed in the 1920's and 30's and you go 'dang, that just sounds like chilean politics today'.

I don't think that is a complete accident.

I am just starting in on it. Another 3/4th to go.

I recommend too his "Stalingrad", which is also in audiobook on YouTube. nothing to do with Chile. That is just to remind everyone, 'shit could be a lot worse'.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by tiagoabner » Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:31 pm

It seems that the AFP withdrawal has been approved:

https://www.t13.cl/noticia/politica/cam ... 23-07-2020

Piñera can still veto it, or he (and any political party, for that matter) can request for the project to be reviewed by the constitutional court.

Assuming neither of these happen, people will be able to withdraw their funds at any time within the 365 days after the law is placed into effect.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:16 pm

tiagoabner wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:31 pm
It seems that the AFP withdrawal has been approved:

https://www.t13.cl/noticia/politica/cam ... 23-07-2020

Piñera can still veto it, or he (and any political party, for that matter) can request for the project to be reviewed by the constitutional court.

Assuming neither of these happen, people will be able to withdraw their funds at any time within the 365 days after the law is placed into effect.
yea, might add, both of those moves could take up to 30 days each, plus response time.

none of this is going to happen quickly. which might bite the left and supporters in the rear as people get progressively more pissed off at not being able to get money.

there is probably a political play here, to drag this out until after the election in October.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:38 pm

so Scotiabank is estimating that this could be as much as 3% of PIB.

chile was estimated to have a 7% contraction this year, which would bring this to just a 4% contraction. which would be spectacular, considering the context.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/ ... etiro.html

I however have my serious doubts about that estimate. It will be significant, but 3% impact?

not sure how you turn $20 billion dollars in to 3% of PIB, but I guess if the money is sloshing around a bit in the system you can get there.

On other econmic fronts, copper sitying around $3 a pound right now probably means more to the overall damage control on the country, and Chile has for the most part managed to keep the copper flowing with minimal disruption so far.

hopefully the copper rally continues for a while to put a floor under all this spending.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:58 pm

pinera just announced he is not going to veto the law.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by tiagoabner » Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:04 pm

admin wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:58 pm
pinera just announced he is not going to veto the law.
Just adding a new link, for whoever wants to read more on this: https://www.t13.cl/noticia/politica/pin ... 23-07-2020
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by tiagoabner » Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:10 pm

This isn't financial advice. If you do this and you get screwed ten times over, that's on you, not on me.

That said, given that I wasn't hit at all by the pandemic and given that I don't need the money, I'm planning on withdrawing as much as I can at the end of the 365 days period, most likely by late july next year. I'm still weighing in whether I'll put it at an APV account (for the tax benefit) or if I'll invest it at a dumb, diversified index fund. I'll most likely go with the later option, although I'm sligthly temped to do the former so I can say that the left gave me a tax break (APV contributions lower your taxable income). :lol:
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by fraggle092 » Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:18 pm

admin wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 4:17 pm
here is something interesting for those stuck in quarantine.
"The battle of Spain" by Atony Bevoor, audio book in English on YouTube
Nothing new under the sun. From the extremely nasty Spanish Civil War, this anecdote Illustrates one of Marxism's specialities, hatred of "non-believers" and "class enemies".
Julián Marías, a disciple of the philosopher José Ortega y Gasset, never forgot the hatred in the expression of a tram-driver at a stop as he watched a beautiful and well-dressed young woman step down onto the pavement. ‘We’ve really had it,’ Marías said to himself. ‘When Marx has more effect than hormones, there is nothing to be done.’
And this one reminded me of the biased "news" coming from the foreign press during last October's local riots:
In the majority of cases the correspondent reflected, or adapted himself to, the political stance of his paper. As a result, Richard Ford’s comment of 1846 was equally true 90 years later: ‘The public at home are much pleased by the perusal of “authentic” accounts from Spain itself which tally with their own preconceived ideas of the land.’
Appear familiar? They're both quotes from the fore-mentioned book: Antony Beevor - The Battle for Spain- The Spanish Civil War 1936-1939
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:28 pm

tiagoabner wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:10 pm
This isn't financial advice. If you do this and you get screwed ten times over, that's on you, not on me.

That said, given that I wasn't hit at all by the pandemic and given that I don't need the money, I'm planning on withdrawing as much as I can at the end of the 365 days period, most likely by late july next year. I'm still weighing in whether I'll put it at an APV account (for the tax benefit) or if I'll invest it at a dumb, diversified index fund. I'll most likely go with the later option, although I'm sligthly temped to do the former so I can say that the left gave me a tax break (APV contributions lower your taxable income). :lol:
I was debating the same thing. wait. wait until everyone else's money has sloshed around the system a bit, and then put it to work. although I have to run some back of the napkin numbers. There are probably some good opportunities coming along, and might be better to just have it in cash ready to invest. I highly expect this covid thingy to have a few more suprises for the markets before this is over. even now, plenty of big dividend payers on sale right now.

yea, just going to stick it in my taxable investment account. I can find a tax deduction somewhere else. I hate having any restrictions on what and when I can invest my money.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:42 pm

more details on the estimated impact on the PIB,

https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-p ... 42243.html
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by tiagoabner » Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:54 pm

admin wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:42 pm
more details on the estimated impact on the PIB,

https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-p ... 42243.html
If the Chilean economy shrinks by 4%, that can be counted as a major victory. McKinsey is estimating that Europe will shrink by anywhere between 5.2% and 11.1% (for the best and worst scenario), with some of the most hit countries going down as far as 13.5% in the worst scenario (IE. Spain).
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