The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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Fugger
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Fugger » Fri May 29, 2020 4:53 am

ghibli wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 3:11 pm
Fugger, you seem to be completely discounting SKY Airlines. Any particular reason? Also, I wonder how the Latam chap 11 will affect Delta.
I think Sky is not comparable being largely a national/regional player, while Latam is by far the largest operator in Latin America (by way of comparison Sky has approx. 25 aircraft while Latam has more than 300). Latam is followed by Gol and Avianca. Gol has 737's and is largely a regional player as well (albeit larger given the size of Brazil). Avianca is also undergoing restructuring.

Delta obviously lost big time on their 20% equity position. Having said, this is probably just one problem of many and not sure whether this will excite them much in the current environment.
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fraggle092
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by fraggle092 » Fri May 29, 2020 1:21 pm

Parliamentarians (of all parties) keep showing their true colours. Yesterday the Senate approved legislation to limit their parliamentary terms. That was another panic proposal made at the height of the riots.

But they have refused to make terms in office retroactive, so it won't come into effect until 2036.
There are parliamentarians who have already been in Congress for 30 years.

Suspiciously scanty coverage in the media, apart from BioBio, and this interview with Pepe Auth in El Libero
-¿Por qué cree que senadores que en el estallido de octubre hablaron de cambiar el modelo, de mayor democracia, justo en este momento votan en contra de esta medida. Estoy hablando de senadores como Alejandro Navarro, Yasna Provoste, Juan Pablo Letelier, Álvaro Elizalde, Guido Girardi?

-Porque ahí es donde se enfrenta el apego a principios con los intereses personales, y eso es lo dramático, visto de la ciudadanía, de lo miserable que puede llegar a ser la política
Clowns.

https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... cion.shtml

https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... ades.shtml
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tiagoabner
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by tiagoabner » Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:19 pm

Piñera has answered to some questions about why they are getting food boxes instead of money to poor families:

https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... rrio.shtml

They want to ensure that people actually get food, they don't want people going out unless it's absolutely necessary, they can get discounts by doing it wholesale, and they want to inject money into local communities by sourcing for locally.

It seems reasonable enough, although they might be spending whatever they're saving with going wholesale with the logistics costs.
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admin
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:42 am

tiagoabner wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:19 pm
Piñera has answered to some questions about why they are getting food boxes instead of money to poor families:

https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... rrio.shtml

They want to ensure that people actually get food, they don't want people going out unless it's absolutely necessary, they can get discounts by doing it wholesale, and they want to inject money into local communities by sourcing for locally.

It seems reasonable enough, although they might be spending whatever they're saving with going wholesale with the logistics costs.
keep in mind, that in a lot of these poor neighborhoods, cash in hand means mom and dad go drinking or buys drugs, etc, and kids don't get food. The (probably more dangerous) social problems don't go away because of a pandemic.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by fraggle092 » Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:44 pm

Finally, some good news from Chile politics.
After a vote in the Camara de Diputados, the initiative to limit parliamentary terms has been approved, and will become Law at some stage. The principle of retroactivity has been upheld, so that the dinosaurs who have already served too long will not be able to stand at the next elections; after presidential assent, the law will come into immediate effect.

Is it too much to hope that some of these idiots are finally realizing how fed up everyone in Chile is with their antics?
Hopefully the Senate cannot come up with a Plan B to continue trying to defeat or delay this project, which was initiated 14 years ago.
Pese al rechazo y tenso debate que se produjo en el Senado, hoy los diputados aprobaron y quedó listo para ser ley el proyecto que establece un límite a la reelección para diputados, senadores y otras autoridades electas por votación popular.
The vote was pretty unanimous but cynical me thinks that the motivation is all about allowing Diputados to re-postulate as Senators after their second term in office as Diputados ends. And vice-versa. Still, it's a definite step forward.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/ ... ctivo.html
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:45 pm

So, the state of the chilean economy.

unemployment siting around 15%, and there is probably a lot of under reported informal jobs. the regions seem to be doing better. think los lagos came in at 5% unemployment.

seems most of the damage is focused on the Santiago and the RM region.

on the up side, copper is on fire right now. think over $2.5 to the pound as all that stimulus money is rapidly translating in a rush on basic materials, along with supply disruptions.

If it follows the pattern from 2008, copper took off from the stimulus money and a weaker dollar (anyone remeber 450 to the dollar?). Chile could use even a short run on copper to shore-up the national finance position.

the peso is starting to reflect that at around 770 to the dollar.

unfortunately, I think a lot of those jobs lost are going to translate in to structural unemployment for many.

for example, all those jobs at marginal restaurants that will never come back; although A lot of them should have been put down long ago. even relatively famous high-end restaurants in Santiago have gone bankrupt. tourism, the McDonald junk food of economic development, will be very different too; most of those jobs are permanently toast.

The sort of good news, the winter is coming. A lot of economic activity gets dialed back in the winter anyway, giving Chile some time to adjust (e.g. construction, tourism, agriculture). although not huge, there is a fairly steady exodus of immigrants back to their countries taking some pressure off the low end labour market. much of them were in the central region.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by fraggle092 » Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:20 pm

Here's the BBC's take on why the UK will be so badly affected, in common I guess with other European nations.
In its latest assessment, the OECD found that the UK's largely service-based economy meant that it had been particularly badly hit by the government's lockdown restrictions.
The services sector, including financial services, hospitality and tourism, makes up about three-quarters of the UK's GDP.
Whereas Chile's more basic, extractive economy, with its high levels of "informal" employment, may partially explain why GDP decline is not projected to be so steep, even with the added factor of the October riots. Or so I suppose. Here's the latest OECD Economic Outlook.
.
OECD Economic Outlook, June 2020.jpg
.
Regarding Chile they say:
After the social protests of late 2019, the COVID19 outbreak and the drop in commodity prices will push the economy into its deepest recession since 1982. If a second outbreak occurs later in the year, GDP will decrease by 7% and will start rebounding only in 2021. Should the current pandemic subside, a recovery led by consumption will start in the third quarter of 2020, even though GDP will still fall by 5.6% in 2020.
Trade will remain depressed by a sluggish global recovery.
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics ... k_16097408
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scandinavian
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by scandinavian » Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:23 pm

LATAM has offers on direct return flights to US for 317 USD in August and September! Certainly not for the riskaverse, but damned that is cheap. I cannot ever remember seeing anything like that. You can go to NYC over the 18th of September for that price.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by tiagoabner » Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:42 pm

scandinavian wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:23 pm
LATAM has offers on direct return flights to US for 317 USD in August and September! Certainly not for the riskaverse, but damned that is cheap. I cannot ever remember seeing anything like that. You can go to NYC over the 18th of September for that price.
They also have flights to Miami starting for USD $308 for October. It's a slightly shorter flight, and it might work better depending on where you getting a connection flight to. I'm not taking any risks until after there's either a vaccine or some kind of cure, but it's enticing nonetheless.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by nikotromus » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:10 pm

tiagoabner wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:42 pm
I'm not taking any risks until after there's either a vaccine or some kind of cure, but it's enticing nonetheless.
Well, the vaccine will be the cure. This statement is 100% correct. At least 1/3rd of the world population will never again feel comfortable flying, being in a crowded stadium, shopping or even walking in a park without the vaccine. I don't see how it will not be created at this point. People will be lining up for it like it's a new Apple iPhone after the second wave hits.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by tiagoabner » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:19 pm

nikotromus wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:10 pm
tiagoabner wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:42 pm
I'm not taking any risks until after there's either a vaccine or some kind of cure, but it's enticing nonetheless.
Well, the vaccine will be the cure. This statement is 100% correct. At least 1/3rd of the world population will never again feel comfortable flying, being in a crowded stadium, shopping or even walking in a park without the vaccine. I don't see how it will not be created at this point. People will be lining up for it like it's a new Apple iPhone after the second wave hits.
I agree that a vaccine will be a cure. Well, a preventive measure, but it's close enough. It might also happen that a reliable post-infection treatment shows up, such as plasma transfers or a serum (think snake poison antidote). I would be comfortable flying into a highly-infected area once there's a way to ensure there isn't that much risk or once there's a reliably treatment to bring down the risk. I'm part of a risk group, so I would rather not get infected if possible.
I'm NOT your lawyer, accountant or financial planner. All information at this post should be considered for your entertainment only. Consult a professional before making a decision regarding whatever topic was mentioned in this post.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Fri Jun 12, 2020 4:18 am

we are getting reports from lots of people that even if you make it to the united states, the connectimg flights are so disrupted that getting to a lot of final destination is involving up to 6 days with numerous different flights, in what use to be max 24 to 48 hour trip and two planes.
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