The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by admin » Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:18 am

41southchile wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:00 pm
ghibli wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 5:51 pm
the Municipal building in San Antonio was apparently burned to the ground late Friday. So I'm wondering how many and what sort of records were stored there. No doubt all paper files are gone, plus computers. Did they back up to another location? This is chile .... how much will this cost?
An architect told me a couple of months ago, that the older municipal records in Puerto Varas for businesses permissions etc are an absolute shambles, because some really bright spark decided they should all be stored in the top floor of the building. Being Chile with the maestros they produce , the building leaked and was not detected for quite a while, many of the records were water damaged and lost forever. So yeah there is a good chance if there were records there in San Antoino, they are gone forever.
back when the Chaiten volcano erupted years ago, and we got word that the property registery / regional notary was wiped out, I looked at my wife and said, "do we have copies of all our client's titles and contracts"?

she said, "let me check".

We did. We had everyone's documents that were destroyed at the government offices in Chaiten.

We were however not actively thinking about it in terms of needing to recreate public records from a natural disaster (fires are more common) at the time.

After that, we now keep copies of everything in both digital and paper formats, in secure locations, exactly so we can simplify dealing with natural, and unnatural disasters.

Then the 2010 quake happened. I learned a few more lessons about how to improve backups, redundant communication, etc, and kept improving on the continuity plans.

Now I think I could get us backup and running anywhere in the World in a few hours, even without internet, electricity, etc.

Now everyone else in Chile? Don't know what to tell you about that.

There are procedures for recreating public records, but they are an expensive hassle if you don't have originals. we constantly have to recreate titles, birth certificates, etc from public offices that were destroyed at some point. Think our oldest was a birth certificate from a hospital that burned down over 100 years ago, and all the records were lost.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by admin » Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:31 am

oh, the worst one.

after the 2010 earthquake, the entire national archives in Santiago were literally on the floor from the quake.

Of course, some company hired us for a contract dispute case a few months later where they did not have a copy of the original, and the only chance of there being one in existence was at the national archives. We had to round-up some law student interns and send them down there to sift through the piles on the floor and track it down.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by admin » Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:57 am

so inspite of the mess, chile had 1.1% expansion in December.

call me cautiously optimistic, but I want to see some longer term numbers. especially after everyone gets back from vacation, and hiring, expansions, investments for the year are made.

probably china's mess and the virus, will do more damage than the little wankers in plaza itialia could ever dream of.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by tiagoabner » Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:34 am

admin wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:31 am
oh, the worst one.

after the 2010 earthquake, the entire national archives in Santiago were literally on the floor from the quake.

Of course, some company hired us for a contract dispute case a few months later where they did not have a copy of the original, and the only chance of there being one in existence was at the national archives. We had to round-up some law student interns and send them down there to sift through the piles on the floor and track it down.
With back-ups, two is one, one is none. If you don't have a back up copy, you might as well not have the document. Of course, the Chilean government being inefficient as it is, I seriously doubt that they'll have back ups for older documents.

By the way, this is absolutely feasible to do with enough planning. Portugal had backed up all their public records up to 1915, and they plan to go to to 1850 by 2030. Lisbon was devastated by an earthquake once and they lost most of their files. Now that the country is in a stable situation, financially and politically speaking, someone got in their mind to back up everything a few years back.

Chile is in much more risks due to it being on the Ring of Fire, so they may have to consider doing the same. The financial cost of losing public records is much higher.
I'm NOT your lawyer, accountant or financial planner. All information at this post should be considered for your entertainment only. Consult a professional before making a decision regarding whatever topic was mentioned in this post.

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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by Britkid » Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:21 pm

Are we seeing price rises? What about the price of a supermarket shop, for instance? Is it increasing due to exchange rate or other concerns. Or same as in October/November? I am out of the country at the moment. Thanks.

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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:27 pm

In all meats, chicken, pork and beef but you are veggie so no problems with that.

The drought has increased prices of melons, watermelons and corn and will effect tomatoes.

Less competition because of non-functioning supermarkets yet to come back online or never will again, means they can raise prices of whatever at whim but in my area, not a problem yet as there is still multi-supermarket competition.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by admin » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:30 pm

I have not really seen anything.

oddly, in frutillar, our traditionally super over priced unimarc super market, seems to have expanded the store, dropped their prices, and is bringing in a more diverse selection of products. I get the sneaky suspicion that after the mess in Santiago, they realized their best bet was to expand their sales and products in the south. Like, they are short stores in the central region, and need somewhere to unload all that extra stock.

Sodimac the other day in Puerto Montt was packed, and seemed to have something similar going on.

If you suddenly loose say 10 to 20% of your biggest stores in the country, that moved most of your products, you suddenly have a backlog of products to unload.

Not very scientific, but just the impression I am getting.

For years, I always had this sense that the roto middle-management in Santiago, that had never been anywhere but pucon, use to look at a map of southern Chile and think, 'those poor indios don't have any money, so we are not going to sell these products to them'.

I just got an odd feeling that has some how changed now.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by admin » Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:53 pm

seems price of gas is reversing.

https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia ... a/1000895/

probably helps that china can not go anywhere.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by tiagoabner » Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:58 pm

Britkid wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:21 pm
Are we seeing price rises? What about the price of a supermarket shop, for instance? Is it increasing due to exchange rate or other concerns. Or same as in October/November? I am out of the country at the moment. Thanks.
I keep a spreadsheet with each dollar (and peso) I earn and spend as a hobby, to keep my Google Sheets skills sharp. My data shows that my personal supermarket costs increased by about 25% since the crisis. Beef increased the most, about 35%, but everything across the board has increased a bit. This is true both for Recoleta, where I used to live and for Las Condes. It is also true for all market chains. It's anecdotal evidence, yes, but that's what it looks like to me.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by admin » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:19 pm

the one that is shocking to me is the lack of people for music weeks in frutillar.

my wife went to the theater tonight. I am parked smack in front of the theater, with extra parking spaces around me. I use to have her walk two blocks and meet me, so I would not get sucked in to the after theater traffic jam going the other way.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by admin » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:27 pm

the one I am waiting to see is if the hordes arrive in February.

traditionally January tends to be the money. February tends to be more middle class families.

so far this year, in January, I have not seen the Porsche, Mercedes, bmw crowd. perhaps they are driving less high profile vehicles this year.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by admin » Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:39 am

oh, shit. forget the little wankers in plaza Italia. they are a frigen bunch of clowns compared to this gaggle of black swans.

china is asking Chilean copper producers to hold off shipments.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/empresas/min ... 71333.html

and it is not just copper. in recent days they have been rerouting fruits and other agro products to other markets.

now, that said, I think this is just going to put more pressure on that big copper spring of the pent-up demand.

It is not like the world is going to stop using copper anytime soon. people like to bla, bla, bla about the timelessness of gold. well, no copper, no civilization. plenty of of civilizations have manged to develop and prosper without gold. None have done it without copper.
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