The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by admin » Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:13 am

meanwhile in that other country up north, Valparaiso can kiss it's tourism industry goodbye.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/empresas/con ... 94934.html
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by admin » Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:46 am

and companies are moving put of downtown and central Santiago at a very fast rate. That trend has been going on for a while, now it is going in to overdrive.

https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia ... ia/916298/

I am sooo glad we got our office in downtown santiago when we did. The old office, next to the supreme court, had been occupied by lawyers since the 1960's. Even though our new office is technically in providencia, it is fairly isolated over next san cristobal hill. Protesters would have to go pretty far out of their way to cause trouble over there, and the building has really good security.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by tiagoabner » Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:53 am

admin wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:13 am
meanwhile in that other country up north, Valparaiso can kiss it's tourism industry goodbye.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/empresas/con ... 94934.html
Yep. No rebuilding efforts while this shit goes on. Valparaiso was a bunch of scenic buildings with slums all around them, and now the slums will be visible due to the open rioting. They might as well close their tourism agency, as they won't be getting too many tourists any time soon.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by 41southchile » Wed Nov 27, 2019 11:03 am

tiagoabner wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:53 am
admin wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:13 am
meanwhile in that other country up north, Valparaiso can kiss it's tourism industry goodbye.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/empresas/con ... 94934.html
. They might as well close their tourism agency, as they won't be getting too many tourists any time soon.
Na , They just need to rebrand their tourism offering, Extreme tourism, a more limited market admittedly.
The whole city was pretty much on a downward spiral before this, just the final nail in the coffin.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_tourism
Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science. - Darwin

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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by RuneTheChookcha » Wed Nov 27, 2019 12:54 pm

41southchile wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 11:03 am
Na , They just need to rebrand their tourism offering, Extreme tourism, a more limited market admittedly.
Exactly.
Some days ago, when they burned to the ground a big auto dealer here (their building looked precisely like after a nuclear explosion) -- I watched tens of people making selfies there, with tens others waiting to do so.

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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by Britkid » Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:16 pm

Part of the reason for the tourism numbers not dropping off much so far is because a lot of them will have booked flights and hotels before this started. So part of their calculation in "shall we still go to Chile?" involves thinking about whether they want to lose a big chunk of money and have to scramble to arrange some other holiday at the last minute. So there is a lag effect. The more months go by the higher the proportion of travelers that haven't booked before the crisis started so potentially it could be a slow drop off.

Even after things have eventually quietened down some months or years from now, people booking holidays will still remember all the bad shit they saw in the news in 2019 and so we can expect some damage to bookings well beyond 2019 even if the situation is resolved.

On the other hand, with the current exchange rate, Chile is cheaper than it has been for a while, so that may cancel out some of that. But probably only partially.

Overall I think areas like Valpo, San Antonio and Santiago are screwed from a tourism perspective, while the south and north will be a fair bit better.

Chile does have potential as a adventurous place to go for young 20 somethings to come back and tell a story to their friends about what tear gas is like and how they negotiated their way through road blockages and attended protestors and sat listening to music at improptu street concerts while chatting up the locals....or whatever. But this is not a large market because people like that are cheap with their hotel and restaurant spend.

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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by dmwbmw2 » Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:28 pm

"Part of the reason for the tourism numbers not dropping off much so far is because a lot of them will have booked flights and hotels before this started. So part of their calculation in "shall we still go to Chile?" involves thinking about whether they want to lose a big chunk of money and have to scramble to arrange some other holiday at the last minute. So there is a lag effect."

Absolutely!! My daughter, her husband and my granddaughter arrived from Canada Nov 6 for a 3 week stay only because they had non-refundable tickets and vacation time booked for 6 months already. And three friends of theirs from Uruguay flew in for a week to visit, again non-refundable.... They almost didn't come and just eat the loss of their money but for just out of uni grads this was a big deal.

And they are all leaving without a lot of desire to ever come back.

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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by 41southchile » Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:53 pm

Britkid wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:16 pm
Part of the reason for the tourism numbers not dropping off much so far is because a lot of them will have booked flights and hotels before this started. So part of their calculation in "shall we still go to Chile?" involves thinking about whether they want to lose a big chunk of money and have to scramble to arrange some other holiday at the last minute. So there is a lag effect. The more months go by the higher the proportion of travelers that haven't booked before the crisis started so potentially it could be a slow drop off.

Even after things have eventually quietened down some months or years from now, people booking holidays will still remember all the bad shit they saw in the news in 2019 and so we can expect some damage to bookings well beyond 2019 even if the situation is resolved.

On the other hand, with the current exchange rate, Chile is cheaper than it has been for a while, so that may cancel out some of that. But probably only partially.

Overall I think areas like Valpo, San Antonio and Santiago are screwed from a tourism perspective, while the south and north will be a fair bit better.

Chile does have potential as a adventurous place to go for young 20 somethings to come back and tell a story to their friends about what tear gas is like and how they negotiated their way through road blockages and attended protestors and sat listening to music at improptu street concerts while chatting up the locals....or whatever. But this is not a large market because people like that are cheap with their hotel and restaurant spend.
That's true, there will certain no go areas now for tourists and a lot less tourism.
I went to Chicago recently and had an amazing time, people were fantastic and it's a place I want to go back to, of course I stated away from the South side where it has one of the highest murder rates in the country.
Point is, your are right, there will be a change in tourists behavior, tourists that actually want to learn about and visit a place will become more selective about where they will visit, Valpo San Antoine and Santiago will probably not be on their lists.
Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science. - Darwin

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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by admin » Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:00 pm

a suprisingly balanced article from bloomberg on chile's debt and wiggle room.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... efty-price
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by Britkid » Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:18 pm

Highlighting this bit from the article:
There’s also evidence that taxes have room to go up. Chile collected 20% of GDP in tax revenue in 2017 versus an average 34% for countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD. Only Mexico collects less, at 16%. France collects the most, at 46%.

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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by mem » Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:52 pm

Britkid wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:18 pm
Highlighting this bit from the article:
There’s also evidence that taxes have room to go up. Chile collected 20% of GDP in tax revenue in 2017 versus an average 34% for countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD. Only Mexico collects less, at 16%. France collects the most, at 46%.
Please dont raise IVA it's already crazy town. If a poor Chilean resident wants to stay in a hotel in Chile they are violated for crazy IVA. Its enough to stop chileans from staying in hotels altogether. Totally brutal...Or at least exempt hotels from IVA for chilean residents

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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by Zenth » Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:08 am

Consumption taxes hit the ones least able to afford it. A poor or lower economic class person spends 100% or more of their salary, much of it subject to IVA. A wealthy person does not spend their full earnings and in effect hides it from IVA.

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