The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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Space Cat
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Space Cat » Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:06 pm

Britkid wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:11 am
They didn't crack down on criminals! They were the criminals.

It's ridiculous that we are still having this debate.
Second that, how is it not a crime when a state does it instead? If anything, the crimes done by the military were much worse than typical robberies.

Pinochet apologists use the arguments that are similar to what I heard from Stalin apologists back in Russia: "He got a country with just ploughs and left it with nuclear weapons!"

They are two sides of the same authoritarian coin that justifies extermination of others for some "higher purposes."

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Britkid » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:58 pm

You guys have zero actual evidence that 18-0 was organized. It is pretty much speculation, conspiracy theory at this point. That doesn´t mean it´s not true but come back when you have some actual evidence.

Why would the government cover it up? Pinera was obviously annoyed by the protests at the start. If there was evidence it was organized by a criminal gang, and not so much a spontaneous outpouring of popular opinion against him, surely it would serve his cause, and that of the police and military, to say so?

By the way, the theory starts to look slightly far fetched when you ask yourself how it relates to all the school kids running around in the metro a few days earlier. Did these criminal gangs also organize them? Or did they respond to that and rapidly organize a conordinated destruction of 30 metro stations (or whatever number) in the space of a few days? Or did they organize the whole plan and sit around thinking "we´ll wait for some other protests, and pull the trigger on the metro destruction plan following that?" Maybe the latter is a bit more plausible.

What might help is to know the exact timings of the beginnings of the violence at each metro station. If the 10th metro station is on fire 10 minutes after the first one, that is organized. Failing that, study the exact sequence of timings of each one and cross reference it with TV reporting and social media posts. There must have been a lot going on social media or whatsapp that I never heard about it. Chile journalists never studied all this that I saw, Chile is rubbish at investigative and analytical journalism, much better at breaking news type stuff.

I remember watching hours of news and social media in a day and then you would find out there was going to be a 100,000 people protest like an hour before it started or only when it actually happened. How did everyone know? Maybe facebook and whatsapp?

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Britkid » Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:04 am

I guess the other thing is it doesn´t have to be an either/or thing. It might have been 10% organized gangs kicking it off and 90% spontaneous after that. Or 30/70 or 50/50. Like maybe an organized gang planned the destruction of the first 5 metro stations and then put a call out on facebook (or however they do it) for others to join in and it caught the mood of the moment.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Space Cat » Sat Mar 06, 2021 1:00 am

Almost all conspiracies of this kind come from ignoring or not understanding classes and their collective interests. This idea is not specifically socialist or Marxist — even Adam Smith divided the society like that (and Marx built upon lots of his ideas later).

Conspiracies tend to arise in the white-collar'ish and small-business-owning middle class. People who belong to this class tend to have little class solidarity because they need to compete with each other to climb the middle-class pyramid. When they see the spontaneous solidarity of the elites or the poor workers, it feels unnatural to them. So, they come up to the conclusion that it was organized and directed by some force. Then they search for patterns that can prove this rationalization.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Sat Mar 06, 2021 11:31 am

so the candidate breakdown for writing the new constitution looks like it is going to lean center-right for the most part. The extreme left has not been able to get their act together.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e=url_link

I am all for a few unicorns and rainbows in the new constitution, but you got also keep them teathered to the ground as something realistically achievable; without killing off the golden goose that pays for those unicorns and rainbows.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Space Cat » Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:55 pm

Yah, kinda expected because the Chilean political scene is super moderate. The "fringe" they describe is probably PC which is as "extreme" as your average European socdem party (see Jadue). Also there's no Bernie, let alone Chavez — even the most popular politicians are boring and uninspiring.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by PXYC » Sat Mar 06, 2021 6:56 pm

I would gladly lobby for constituents to increase the annual 15 days day off in Chile. You can hardly have winter break and summer break and spring break.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Sun Mar 07, 2021 6:27 am

I am hoping they do go for a more minimalist constitution, and leave the nuts and bolts to the laws and regulations.

They can not increase parking fines without an amendment to the constitution right now. constitutions are not ment to be messed with that much. They are a framework, guard rails, a mission statement, road map.

Inceases to vacation days should have nothing to do with a constitution, beyond some broad and vague wording about workers rights or family rights.

one of the reasons latin american constitutions are constantly being rewritten is that insistence on explicitly calling out every little thing a country does in the constitution.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by tiagoabner » Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:08 pm

I'm moving the financial discussion to this thread to avoid polluting the one where we were talking about the virus in Chile.

So, the government's project for a third AFP withdrawal has received a lot of backlash from small and medium business owners: https://www.t13.cl/noticia/negocios/pol ... ntratacion

It seems that no one in government ever had to face the financial consequences of paying for stuff themselves. The way the project is written, it would impose a 1% payroll tax on employers to pay for their employees' AFP withdrawals. This is dumb as shit: anyone who has ever run a small business knows that payroll makes for a significant part of your fixed costs, and adding a 1% surcharge on top of your payroll is a surefire way to make sure that salaries get stagnated.

I wonder who the fuck came with such a dumb idea. There's no way business owners will support a project that will shift the costs for the government's new project to them, and I don't think large businesses will support this as well, as they have a smaller share of their costs be payroll, but they also have larger payrolls in absolute numbers.
I'm NOT your lawyer, accountant or financial planner. All information at this post should be considered for your entertainment only. Consult a professional before making a decision regarding whatever topic was mentioned in this post.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Britkid » Mon Apr 26, 2021 3:48 pm

87% support AFP 3rd withdrawal according to CADEM study released today:
https://www.cadem.cl/wp-content/uploads ... ril-S4.pdf

This likely explains why Pinera's approval rating has fallen to a low of 9% in the study today. All that work on the pandemic and securing vaccines just to get his approval back into the 20s and now he has blown it again by not quickly approving 3rd withdrawal. 3rd withdrawal will likely go ahead anyway so what was the point?

Another interesting thing is the temas valóricos on Page 21.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Jamers41 » Mon Apr 26, 2021 6:13 pm

tiagoabner wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:08 pm
I'm moving the financial discussion to this thread to avoid polluting the one where we were talking about the virus in Chile.

So, the government's project for a third AFP withdrawal has received a lot of backlash from small and medium business owners: https://www.t13.cl/noticia/negocios/pol ... ntratacion

It seems that no one in government ever had to face the financial consequences of paying for stuff themselves. The way the project is written, it would impose a 1% payroll tax on employers to pay for their employees' AFP withdrawals. This is dumb as shit: anyone who has ever run a small business knows that payroll makes for a significant part of your fixed costs, and adding a 1% surcharge on top of your payroll is a surefire way to make sure that salaries get stagnated.

I wonder who the fuck came with such a dumb idea. There's no way business owners will support a project that will shift the costs for the government's new project to them, and I don't think large businesses will support this as well, as they have a smaller share of their costs be payroll, but they also have larger payrolls in absolute numbers.
Sooooo........who should pay for it then?

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by tiagoabner » Mon Apr 26, 2021 6:33 pm

Jamers41 wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 6:13 pm
tiagoabner wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:08 pm
I'm moving the financial discussion to this thread to avoid polluting the one where we were talking about the virus in Chile.

So, the government's project for a third AFP withdrawal has received a lot of backlash from small and medium business owners: https://www.t13.cl/noticia/negocios/pol ... ntratacion

It seems that no one in government ever had to face the financial consequences of paying for stuff themselves. The way the project is written, it would impose a 1% payroll tax on employers to pay for their employees' AFP withdrawals. This is dumb as shit: anyone who has ever run a small business knows that payroll makes for a significant part of your fixed costs, and adding a 1% surcharge on top of your payroll is a surefire way to make sure that salaries get stagnated.

I wonder who the fuck came with such a dumb idea. There's no way business owners will support a project that will shift the costs for the government's new project to them, and I don't think large businesses will support this as well, as they have a smaller share of their costs be payroll, but they also have larger payrolls in absolute numbers.
Sooooo........who should pay for it then?
While I have worked for years in public administration and macroeconomic, this question is a bit beyond my expertise. But if I was to work on a financial support program for Chile, I would have implemented a universal basic income project last March available universally and credited to people's bank accounts for three months. Alongside the border closure, this should've been enough to stimulate people to stay home long enough to get cases under control. Since Covid grows exponentially, getting cases to the ground early on should've been enough to get things open with a mask mandate in place. Then I would've imposed a lockdown whenever a "comuna" had a spike in cases, alongside a new month of payments to people who live in that "comuna" to allow them to stay at home.

I would've gone with $300.000 per adult and $150.000 per minor. Chile has roughly 19 million people, 14 million adults, and 5 million minors. This would've cost the government just under $20 billion dollars for the three months, roughly 9% of the Chilean GDP, but I estimate this would've paid off if the economy was able to open up the same way that Australia and New Zealand have been able to. The government's conservative estimate prices the three AFP withdrawals at roughly $6 billion dollars for the first, plus $4 billion dollars for the second and third. So my option would've cost $6 billion dollars more upfront, but it would most likely lead to less economic damage to businesses.

In terms of how to pay for it, I would've auctioned mining rights to unexplored mines. Chile has a lot of under-explored areas, such as lithium mining, and leasing mining rights is an easy way to get money and foreign capital upfront.


[EDIT]

Source on the $6 billion dollars cost for the first AFP withdrawal: https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia ... H2TLLQ2CA/
I'm NOT your lawyer, accountant or financial planner. All information at this post should be considered for your entertainment only. Consult a professional before making a decision regarding whatever topic was mentioned in this post.

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