The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Tue May 04, 2021 2:05 pm

FYI, we often hear about the terrible aproval numbers of pinata, at 9% or so.

we rarely here that the aproval rate for congress is just 8%.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by tiagoabner » Tue May 04, 2021 3:01 pm

This is a short piece on the current universal basic income proposal that was sent to be reviewed by congress this week:

https://www.t13.cl/noticia/nacional/ren ... 03-05-2021

The current proposal that's being discussed is for $176.201 per person monthly as long as the state of emergency due to the pandemic lasts. This number was chosen due to it being the official government indicator for the poverty line for March 2021, which seems reasonable. This proposal came from a few left-wing parties, and it's meant to be universal: that is, everyone will get the funds, no matter your income. This is meant as a way to create less hassle and bureaucratic delays in the process.

The government has been slow as hell to prepare its own proposal, which seems to be a theme during the pandemic. Some unreliable sources talk about the government's "universal" income project being not-so-universal, being available to those up to the 80th percentile of income, with a $140.000 to $170.000 per person (depending on the source). I don't think this is a good idea because adding income verification criteria to the benefit penalizes people who had a higher income in the last 12 months, but who lost their jobs sometime during the pandemic. It's important to note that there's still not an official statement from the government on their project, all of this comes from sources in the government.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Tue May 04, 2021 4:46 pm

that is 4.8 billion dollars a month, 58.5 billion a year, or something like 25% of Chile's GDP in 2019. assuming my math is more or less correct.

That has the potential to blow out the national debt, if things go sideways.

perhaps more realistic, how about the lowest earning half of the population?

or say, everyone that makes under a million pesos a month?

I am looking at this as permanent basic income, because you know they will not want to give that up when the pandemic is over. so, probably worth doing it in such a way that it is reasonably sustainable long-term.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Tue May 04, 2021 4:50 pm

The reason I bring up long-term planning for this, is because all the studies on universal basic income essentially agree that real benfit is allowing people to plan long-term.

for example, if you know you can pay your rent in 6 months or a year, you are more willing to say take a risk and start a new buisness, go back to school, write that book, etc. essentially people can take risks to improve themselves and their situation, and that is where the country gets the bang for the buck pay back.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Tue May 04, 2021 9:39 pm

I actually like this plan better.

every baby born in the country gets a 1 million peso deposit to juice their pension plan. over 60 or 65 years, would yield about 200,000+ peso pension, even if they never paid anything else in. fairly cheap and manageable. looks like about 350 million u.s. a year.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Fri May 07, 2021 12:31 pm

And this is why you don't let the commie kids in congress touch anything,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... tep-closer
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Zenth » Fri May 07, 2021 12:38 pm

The only problem with basic income is that many people do not take the risk and the basic income becomes their only income. As this is insufficient, they ask for/demand more.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by tiagoabner » Mon May 10, 2021 6:20 pm

There's an article from Bloomberg from today which can be accessed though this link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... g-in-chile

They talk at length about how the AFP withdrawals are possibly going to lead to the end of the AFP system in the long run, and they've laid blame to Piñera. Obtuse and socially-disconnected is a good way to describe his government's stance on economy and social issues. And I think they're right. I still recall thinking "What the fuck" when a government agent told people to wake up earlier in response to criticisms regarding the metro fare increase.

I wonder if any thought is being given to what comes next in terms of a retirement system. I would hope so, but the answer is most likely "not a lot".
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Mon May 10, 2021 8:45 pm

Almost no one seems to give a dam that there is a vote to elect people to rewrite the constitution next week. Even a lot of politicians seem rather uninterested in it. Politicians all seem to be focused on the next congressional, mayor, or presidential election; people are focused on getting out of quarantine, and being able to put their life back together.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Mon May 10, 2021 8:48 pm

Zenth wrote:
Fri May 07, 2021 12:38 pm
The only problem with basic income is that many people do not take the risk and the basic income becomes their only income. As this is insufficient, they ask for/demand more.
so what?

Like that is any different than right now, just people get to bitch about it from poverty and all the social problems that go with it, or at least can live at some standard.

No one ever tells the trust fund kid sitting on his ass doing or producing nothing, "get a job you bum"!
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by PXYC » Mon May 10, 2021 10:13 pm

I was never completly sold on the basic income idea, although the progressive ideals in me pushed me into accepting it. Right now I just think its a bad idea. I mean yeah I accept it in times of extreme crisis, like *now*, but not as a system.
I am trying to change a window on my appartment and the prices exploded, and I feel that with AFP money in their pocket the window guys just don't bother working except for extremly inflated prices - cancelling the work at the last minute even. I can't imagine a world where this logic extends to everything. It would be a China world for sure. 🙂

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Mon May 10, 2021 10:16 pm

I just had a thought.

I bet of you took a poll right now, who is going to write the constitution is the least important thing to chileans right now.

for a sanity check, ask if they know who they are going to vote for.

At least I sure as hell have no idea at this moment, beyond a vague "I want people with zero history of holding political office, association with a political party, and some sort of education that qualifies them to have a vague idea about how to write an a constitution (failing that, they can read and write)".

I spent all of 30 seconds looking so far. seems I have 25 choices in my district, and most are "independents"; but, I plan to cram for the multiple choice exam at the last moment. I was good at that in school. :lol:
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