The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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41southchile
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by 41southchile » Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:24 pm

admin wrote:
Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:35 pm
tiagoabner wrote:
Thu Jun 03, 2021 5:48 pm
gringalais wrote:
Thu Jun 03, 2021 5:37 pm
I'd take it. I've taken two of my allowed withdrawals so far and it's doing better in stocks that it would have been in the AFP.
It's not that hard to beat the AFPs by shoving it all in diversified mutual funds, especially with AFP's charging an almost-criminal 6 to 13% assets under management fee. I work on finance and the most I've ever heard about was 3% by a top-dog financial firm in NYC.
hell, it's not hard to beat the AFP at a casino. 😆 🤣

At least you might get free drinks.
Any areas you see opportunities in at the moment in Chilean stocks ? any bargains with the recent price drops?
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:39 am

well, retailers got smacked down. I like chilean companies that are internationally diversified.

fallabella I like. bank, department stores, sodimac home centers all over latin america. where do you think all that AFP and government bono money is going to go?

straight to the big screen TV department. 😆 They got beat down on Peru news last week.

copec. they are so diversified across unrelated industries, it is like buying a an ETF. They own Araco, and with the lumber prices should do good this year. they now have a chip board factory in the U.S.; but, they also have gas stations in the U.S
too. kind of good all around exposure to commodities.

I got smacked by my chilean builders, but they are down like 50% if you buy in to thesis that that there is housing shortage in chile due to interuptions in construction. kind of heavily concentrated in Chile.

concha y toro did o.k. through the pandemic. guess everyone stayed home and drank wine. not sure their real estate play is going to be viable any time soon. They should be able to grab more Chinese market share as Australia is fighting with china, and china has taken it out on their wine industry.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:37 am

well, central bank of chile is projecting 8.5 to 9.5% growth this year.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/ ... ntral.html

went in to town yesterday afternoon, and basically spent the whole time in a traffic jam everywhere I went in little frutillar. everything was open, and everyone was shopping. no parking spaces anywhere. which o.k., 5 to 6 p.m. rush hour. kind of understandable.

well, I also went in to get gas at 5 a.m., thinking the local copec would be empty. nope. There was lines of cars and trucks at the pumps, and lines of people going in to the stores (and it is one of those tiny little 5 x 10 meter stores). People were definitely up early and going somewhere. there was like 50 people there at 5 a.m. I have gone in there at that time before the pandemic, and there is no one there.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

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41southchile
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by 41southchile » Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:57 am

admin wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:39 am
well, retailers got smacked down. I like chilean companies that are internationally diversified.

fallabella I like. bank, department stores, sodimac home centers all over latin america. where do you think all that AFP and government bono money is going to go?

straight to the big screen TV department. 😆 They got beat down on Peru news last week.

copec. they are so diversified across unrelated industries, it is like buying a an ETF. They own Araco, and with the lumber prices should do good this year. they now have a chip board factory in the U.S.; but, they also have gas stations in the U.S
too. kind of good all around exposure to commodities.

I got smacked by my chilean builders, but they are down like 50% if you buy in to thesis that that there is housing shortage in chile due to interuptions in construction. kind of heavily concentrated in Chile.

concha y toro did o.k. through the pandemic. guess everyone stayed home and drank wine. not sure their real estate play is going to be viable any time soon. They should be able to grab more Chinese market share as Australia is fighting with china, and china has taken it out on their wine industry.
Sounds good, anything in the electricity sector?
Looks like everyone has been bargain hunting the last few days for stocks, some strong price rises in some I was watching.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:14 am

41southchile wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:57 am
admin wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:39 am
well, retailers got smacked down. I like chilean companies that are internationally diversified.

fallabella I like. bank, department stores, sodimac home centers all over latin america. where do you think all that AFP and government bono money is going to go?

straight to the big screen TV department. 😆 They got beat down on Peru news last week.

copec. they are so diversified across unrelated industries, it is like buying a an ETF. They own Araco, and with the lumber prices should do good this year. they now have a chip board factory in the U.S.; but, they also have gas stations in the U.S
too. kind of good all around exposure to commodities.

I got smacked by my chilean builders, but they are down like 50% if you buy in to thesis that that there is housing shortage in chile due to interuptions in construction. kind of heavily concentrated in Chile.

concha y toro did o.k. through the pandemic. guess everyone stayed home and drank wine. not sure their real estate play is going to be viable any time soon. They should be able to grab more Chinese market share as Australia is fighting with china, and china has taken it out on their wine industry.
Sounds good, anything in the electricity sector?
Looks like everyone has been bargain hunting the last few days for stocks, some strong price rises in some I was watching.
I guess there is Enel, but I don't really follow them. They have a domestic and international stock corresponding to their different buisness devisions on the chilean stock market.

I try to stay away from semi-goverment infrastructure monopolies like those in latin America. seen too many companies get their rear handed to them with a change of the political winds.

Like I had friend that ran a south american division of an american power company. they went in to brazil, built a power plant for 1 billion dollars, and the next election the government (lula) just said, "thanks for the power plant". They just took it.

They ended up exiting everything in latin America. Every time they turned around, some government was expropriating something, taxing something, messing with regulations, all while trying to keep their company on the right side of the law as everyone and their cousin wanted a bribe.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

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41southchile
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by 41southchile » Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:44 am

admin wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:37 am
well, central bank of chile is projecting 8.5 to 9.5% growth this year.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/ ... ntral.html

went in to town yesterday afternoon, and basically spent the whole time in a traffic jam everywhere I went in little frutillar. everything was open, and everyone was shopping. no parking spaces anywhere. which o.k., 5 to 6 p.m. rush hour. kind of understandable.

well, I also went in to get gas at 5 a.m., thinking the local copec would be empty. nope. There was lines of cars and trucks at the pumps, and lines of people going in to the stores (and it is one of those tiny little 5 x 10 meter stores). People were definitely up early and going somewhere. there was like 50 people there at 5 a.m. I have gone in there at that time before the pandemic, and there is no one there.
The same in Puerto Varas, it’s a right mess now, traffic jams all day. It used to take about 10 or 15 minutes to get across Puerto Varas, 5 or 6 years ago, now it can take up to 45 minutes during the afternoon , and still the apartments go up.

The growth has been happening for the last 5 years, yes the social situation and covid has accelerated it, but zero planning and zero preparation.

Now I read plans for traffic lights on several major intersections where you can spend 20 minutes trying to get through in the snarl ups, will not actually be done for probably another 2 years, because they need more time to study them .

They have certainly killed the golden goose in Puerto Varas, people that live in Puerto Varas are not happy, it’s good for smaller surrounding towns, I guess.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

Jamers41
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Jamers41 » Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:40 pm

admin wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:37 am
well, central bank of chile is projecting 8.5 to 9.5% growth this year.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/ ... ntral.html

went in to town yesterday afternoon, and basically spent the whole time in a traffic jam everywhere I went in little frutillar. everything was open, and everyone was shopping. no parking spaces anywhere. which o.k., 5 to 6 p.m. rush hour. kind of understandable.

well, I also went in to get gas at 5 a.m., thinking the local copec would be empty. nope. There was lines of cars and trucks at the pumps, and lines of people going in to the stores (and it is one of those tiny little 5 x 10 meter stores). People were definitely up early and going somewhere. there was like 50 people there at 5 a.m. I have gone in there at that time before the pandemic, and there is no one there.
Aaahhhh, I remember those days......back before the eternal quarantine. Someday they will return.

In all seriousness I think these economic projections are a bit overly optimistic. Not only due to a slower receding of the pandemic, but there's the political factor and upcoming elections too.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:08 am

I have been pretty critical of the quality of scientific research papers coming out of chile.

Honestly, I just thought it was me.

nope, unesco thinks chile is producing piles of crap too; even though the volume is fairly high for the size of the population.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Tecnologi ... chile.html

The other problem Chile has is technology innovation.

Even when they produce something good, the first thing any company does that is serious about bringing their product to market is: leave.

I know this because we have been doing a brisk business in recent years helping start-up companies move out of the country or at least license their IP to other countries for production.

It is not like they discover a new invention and immediately think, "hay, lets build a factory in Chile and produce this product" either.

Chile is just really a hostile environment for start-ups (in spite the government b.s. campaigns like "Start-up Chile"). little access to capital. very little by way of deductions for start-up costs. ancient Roman / Egyptian type regulations. very little IP protection. very week and slow courts.

Even when companies keep operations in Chile, they often incorporate outside the country. Too small a market, relative to the regulatory burden.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

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41southchile
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by 41southchile » Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:24 am

admin wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:14 am
41southchile wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:57 am
admin wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:39 am
well, retailers got smacked down. I like chilean companies that are internationally diversified.

fallabella I like. bank, department stores, sodimac home centers all over latin america. where do you think all that AFP and government bono money is going to go?

straight to the big screen TV department. 😆 They got beat down on Peru news last week.

copec. they are so diversified across unrelated industries, it is like buying a an ETF. They own Araco, and with the lumber prices should do good this year. they now have a chip board factory in the U.S.; but, they also have gas stations in the U.S
too. kind of good all around exposure to commodities.

I got smacked by my chilean builders, but they are down like 50% if you buy in to thesis that that there is housing shortage in chile due to interuptions in construction. kind of heavily concentrated in Chile.

concha y toro did o.k. through the pandemic. guess everyone stayed home and drank wine. not sure their real estate play is going to be viable any time soon. They should be able to grab more Chinese market share as Australia is fighting with china, and china has taken it out on their wine industry.
Sounds good, anything in the electricity sector?
Looks like everyone has been bargain hunting the last few days for stocks, some strong price rises in some I was watching.
I guess there is Enel, but I don't really follow them. They have a domestic and international stock corresponding to their different buisness devisions on the chilean stock market.

I try to stay away from semi-goverment infrastructure monopolies like those in latin America. seen too many companies get their rear handed to them with a change of the political winds.

Like I had friend that ran a south american division of an american power company. they went in to brazil, built a power plant for 1 billion dollars, and the next election the government (lula) just said, "thanks for the power plant". They just took it.

They ended up exiting everything in latin America. Every time they turned around, some government was expropriating something, taxing something, messing with regulations, all while trying to keep their company on the right side of the law as everyone and their cousin wanted a bribe.
I wonder if all the companies controlled by the likes of Luksic and co will be distributing huge dividends this year to their shareholders to get money out of their companies before any future loss of value in the changing political landscape which could see expropriations and changes in the rules. That’s what I would be doing if I was them and sitting on piles of cash as some companies are.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by 41southchile » Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:29 am

admin wrote:
Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:08 am
I have been pretty critical of the quality of scientific research papers coming out of chile.

Honestly, I just thought it was me.

nope, unesco thinks chile is producing piles of crap too; even though the volume is fairly high for the size of the population.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Tecnologi ... chile.html

The other problem Chile has is technology innovation.

Even when they produce something good, the first thing any company does that is serious about bringing their product to market is: leave.

I know this because we have been doing a brisk business in recent years helping start-up companies move out of the country or at least license their IP to other countries for production.

It is not like they discover a new invention and immediately think, "hay, lets build a factory in Chile and produce this product" either.

Chile is just really a hostile environment for start-ups (in spite the government b.s. campaigns like "Start-up Chile"). little access to capital. very little by way of deductions for start-up costs. ancient Roman / Egyptian type regulations. very little IP protection. very week and slow courts.

Even when companies keep operations in Chile, they often incorporate outside the country. Too small a market, relative to the regulatory burden.
Really you don’t say?

All talk and hot air and sitting around in committees discussing strategies and plans and how they will do things, but never actually following through, well that doesn’t surprise me in the least.
Chile is not known for the Silicon Valley Moto of ‘move fast and break things’, that’s for sure, not that that is always the ideal, but it beats the other end of the spectrum where it’s all talk and hot air and no action.

The whole start up thing is probably just some politicians and bureaucrats who went to Silicon Valley one day and decided Chile should be like that, failing to realise they are in Chile and despite all their bright ideas and how they would like to see the country, it was working in isolation in a country not exactly known for its start up culture.

Play it safe, go to college, be a lawyer be an architect be whatever but go to college.

Entrepreneurs in Chile while abundant, they are not the silicon valley start up types, they are someone who sets up a fast food shop in their house or opens a fruit store or thinks they can be a real estate agent and sets up a crappy website, they are they ice cream sellers on the bus or woman selling sheepskins out the back of her trunk on the side of the road.

Start up Chile ignores the reality of life in Chile and how people operate here. Like I said it was probably a pet project by some sons of the Chicago boys, who had a bright idea on how they would like to see Chile, while ignoring reality.

Hey at least some foreigners have got some cash from the government and had fun time in Chile for a while.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Fri Jun 11, 2021 11:13 am

Like even things you would think could only be done in Chile, and there would be plenty of people around with expertise given the size of the industry, are almost 100% dependent on foreign expertise.

like we have clients that build and operate telescopes in Chile. all of the technical support is outside Chile. Like they have cameras inside the telescope, a guy goes there, and we get on a couple of phones and translate the instructions (often from more than one language) for them to plug in a wire here, push this button or that button. The guy physically at the telescope, only needs slightly more than a monkey's level of education and opposable thumbs to do the job.

but, even extremely basic technology skills are still not common.

I had a commercial fiber optic connection installed in my house recently. I spoke to no less than 5 employees at telsur, supposedly that all worked for their tech support in their dedicated commercial division, that had no idea what an IP address was nor how to read one so I could configure my network. They just kept feeding me gibberish. Finally got a call back from what seems to be the one guy in thousands of employees that knew how their network operated.

I have been here almost 20 years now, and I have not seen the technical skills improve in the least. If anything, it has probably gotten worse as global IT companies have "idiot proofed" their products more. Even basic trouble shooting skills seem to be getting worse (like, 'A, B, C, is fine, must be D that is broken').
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by 41southchile » Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:02 am

admin wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:39 am
well, retailers got smacked down. I like chilean companies that are internationally diversified.

fallabella I like. bank, department stores, sodimac home centers all over latin america. where do you think all that AFP and government bono money is going to go?

straight to the big screen TV department. 😆 They got beat down on Peru news last week.

copec. they are so diversified across unrelated industries, it is like buying a an ETF. They own Araco, and with the lumber prices should do good this year. they now have a chip board factory in the U.S.; but, they also have gas stations in the U.S
too. kind of good all around exposure to commodities.

I got smacked by my chilean builders, but they are down like 50% if you buy in to thesis that that there is housing shortage in chile due to interuptions in construction. kind of heavily concentrated in Chile.

concha y toro did o.k. through the pandemic. guess everyone stayed home and drank wine. not sure their real estate play is going to be viable any time soon. They should be able to grab more Chinese market share as Australia is fighting with china, and china has taken it out on their wine industry.

Shares surging today. Centre left seems more acceptable to the markets than the extreme left, even if only 20 percent of those eligible bothered to vote yesterday, unless you live in Las Condes or Vitcura then it was closer to 50. Anyway most shares I am following are up 2 to 8 percent today.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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