The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Mon May 10, 2021 10:27 pm

PXYC wrote:
Mon May 10, 2021 10:13 pm
I was never completly sold on the basic income idea, although the progressive ideals in me always pushed me into accepting it. Right now I just think its a bad idea. I mean yeah I accept it in times of extreme crisis, like *now*, but not as a system.
I am trying to change a window on my appartment and the prices exploded, and I feel that with AFP money in their pocket the window guys just don't bother working except for extremly inflated prices. I can't imagine a world where this logic extends to everything. It would be a China world for sure. 🙂
That shit is going to change quickly. even the guys that have turned sitting on their ass in to an art form, will be lured back in to the market because the money "seems" really good. inflation is here, and this is just a taste of it.

I am buying all the stocks I can in any oil and gas producer, because the only thing that keeps pace with inflation is ENERGY; perhaps real estate (just not to the same velocity).

look at history. during crisis, what increased in price: energy. Japan and germany lost wwll, because of constrained energy supplies. the southern united states lost the civil war because of energy constraints. Economic growth requires energy.

yea, bla,bla,bla gold increased. bla, bla,bla, this is good or that is good. They all need energy. renewables are wonderful idea, but 10+ years from now. I sold my copper and lithium stocks last year, when I realized there is plenty of time to step back in to that. in the meantime there is a lot of money to be made in the premature constraints being placed on oil and gas (not a fan of gas, but they go together).
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by tiagoabner » Mon May 10, 2021 11:09 pm

PXYC wrote:
Mon May 10, 2021 10:13 pm
I was never completly sold on the basic income idea (...)
Me neither, but I think it can be done is a successful manner. Think about all the "bonos" and other assorted financial support money measures given by the Chilean government to people every year. It takes a lot of people to handle all these social measures, as well as a lot of time out of the people who need to get in line and produce paperwork. Bureaucracy gives me shivers.

We could instead have an universal basic income with a value that was adjusted monthly based on some financial indicator, which could be either the poverty line, the minimum wage or something else. And then cut the bonos. The cost wouldn't rise all that much, although I need to run the numbers to get the exact figure, and we could shave off 3000-5000 useless bureaucrats. That cut alone would save the public coffers USD $180 million-ish per year in bureaucrat wages. Cut enough useless crap and to can easily pay for universal basic income.

I would rather have to pay slightly higher taxes and have to pay more for handyman's services rather than have people be hungry. And I'm talking from a practical perspective. While that would elevate inflation in the short-term, the quality of life improvement for Chile would pay dividends for generations to come.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Huelshoff » Mon May 10, 2021 11:23 pm

A lot of prominent economists are talking about this now more broadly than just in Chile. The driving forces are automation of industrial jobs, and the move of AI into white collar jobs too. Many are predicting that technology will in the next few decades replace a lot of labor, and a universal income will be necessary to keep people alive and soak up production levels. And Covid is giving both companies and individuals incentives to rethink employment. Of course these ideas have been around for a long time, and not just in science fiction novels. I have recently seen a couple of articles speculating about this, especially in a post-Covid era (if we ever get there...).

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Tue May 11, 2021 10:04 am

I have seen some workable ideas for the universal income, but the key was to cut most the money and beucracy for all the other social programs down to the absolute minimum.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Britkid » Tue May 11, 2021 9:44 pm

admin wrote:
Mon May 10, 2021 10:27 pm

I am buying all the stocks I can in any oil and gas producer, because the only thing that keeps pace with inflation is ENERGY; perhaps real estate (just not to the same velocity).
This is an extremely high risk investment with much more downside than upside (oil more so than gas). The prices of oil and gas companies are based on climate change denialism and fossil fuel companies brainwashing the public. If the companies are ever required to pay a carbon tax consistent with the damage they cause to the world, and consistent with the needed reductions to meet the Paris agreement, then this business model will slowly begin to die.

Carbon tax discussion is on the up, so is talk of divestment from fossil fuels from enviromentalists at Universities. The airline industry is in a very uncertain state, while the replacement of oil cars with electric cars is more a question of when than if. In fact, it´s already starting.

We are not likely going to have a world that avoids catastrophic climate change and also has oil and gas companies with healthy share prices.

If ever the public wakes up to the reality of climate change, stock prices will suffer.

Energy is going to increase, but the increase will come from renewables by the look of it (or could be nuclear, but there is less sign of that). Oil and gas will likely stay about the same for a while and then decline.

A sudden and spectacular collapse in the value of oil companies at some point in this decade can´t be ruled out either.

Oil and gas is also not an ethical investment since the companies take your money and use it to finance new oil and gas digs, even though the amount these companies already have on their books is several times the amount we can afford to safely burn and stay well under 2C. So you are (probably) causing more climate change with that investment.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Britkid » Tue May 11, 2021 9:47 pm

I am invested in these three funds

They have no fossil fuels and supposedly ethical things including renewable energy and supposedly environmental companies

Landlord Account M&G Positive Impact Fund I Acc (Shares)
FP WHEB Sustainability Fund Class C Acc
Impax Environmental Markets

They have all gone up since I have invested.

Impax has gone up about 60% in last 2 years, easily beating the stock market average. I doubt you will get that ever again from any of the oil companies.

People are in denial about climate change. I´m just monetizing climate change denialism.

Investing in fossil fuel companies is the opposite. More snake oil than crude oil.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by PXYC » Tue May 11, 2021 10:20 pm

The oil companies I follow are also investing on renewable energies. And I don't know how many growth is left for renewable energy, with high PER and so many companies entering the game. It depends on gonvernment benefits I guess, but having so many companies on the field kind of defeats the purpose of benefits. I have a nice profit from the investment I've made on the last two years, I'm just keeping them for the dividends now.

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Wed May 12, 2021 8:30 am

oh, I know it obviously a timing thing, and for me a very short timing thing. also, staying away from the big boys. small, low costs, low debt companies that can be very flexible. none of those "we are going to build an oil platform that takes 30 years to bring production online" type dinosaurs. This is a velocoraptor type oil market. I am also specifically going after the companies with a carbon neutral plan, exactly because the carbon credit trade is also coming. For example, I got a few companies that are opening divisions that are selling credits to sequester carbon in their old wells.

My biggest looser in the oil industry is up 40% this year.

Here was my "ha ha" moment.

I was investing heavily in copper and lithium before the pandemic. made some good returns off, but decided to take my profits and run. I bought at the super bottom about 2016 through 2019. Started looking around for what was next, at just about the time time the pandemic started. oil was crashing. remember the negative oil price?

well, as I invested in copper, and researched the market demand more and more, it was obvious that "ev" and "green" energy soltions were decades away from having any serious impact on the world, regardless if politicians wanted it or not. Most of the world still does not have stable electric grid, or, more often, any eltric grid.

That was when I realized, Tesla does not need to compete with the price of a new F-150 truck ($60,000 to $80,000 U.S.) in the united states. Tesla needs to compete with a 1995 Toyota hilux in a developing country that costs a few thousand dollars to own and operate, and can be fueled in minutes just about everywhere. Imagine 30,000 vehicles parked at a gas station in an Indian city, for an hour or two, all day, every day? does that sound practical?

There was a study out of California recently, that 18% of EV owners, 20% of hybrid owners, returned to ICE cars because of the hassel of charging. most people did not have a 220v plug at home, let alone a 400 volt plug, and almost none used public charging stations due to how long they would have to wait.

Now imagine you are trying to recharge your car in africa, India, or hell the Patagonia? You see the problem?

I realized the death of oil will not be a remote reality, until charging times are down to a easy 10 to 15 minutes, everywhere. Not just in California, or santiago, but I mean everywhere. which obviously is a solvable tech or engineering problem, but it is not going to happen this year.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by Britkid » Wed May 12, 2021 5:45 pm

Couple of things - oil companies tend to invest a very small amount in renewable energy for greenwashing purposes to spin a line. If they are not revealing what percentage that solar investment is that's because it's not a lot. They also often buy up existing businesses rather than build their own renewables, which will have no positive effect at all unless they then use their resources to expand them. I'm not aware of a single oil major that's transitioning really to renewables...I mean 20% or 30% $ or profits from green energy today not 1% or 2% but maybe one of you can name one and prove me wrong.

Secondly, oil market does have a long tail of slow decline to come for various reasons, you are right for example in that EVs will be very slow in India, and many other places. But oil price is very volatile. Look at the history of it and you see numerous cases where a demand vs supply change of 10%-20% causes a price change of 40%-60%. Or even maybe 100% in the recent case you mentioned.

And this chaos happens when there are few little blips, a few little ups and down of 10% and 20% here and there.

It's absolutely possible that an oil major could fall into serious financial difficulty all of a sudden even though the demand for oil globally has only fallen 10%.

Tesla stock went big in 2018 when analysts realized that Tesla was going to do well in 2020 or 2025.

It's the same here but in reverse. Say the oil industry starts to go into a big decline in 2030 and a slow decline in 2025. Then maybe 2022 is the year analysts figure it out and the stock tanks. Oil demand is probably still growing in 2022. Doesn't matter. Stock tanks because that's when they realize the prospects for 2025 and 2030 are rubbish.

Anyway, let's see!

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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Wed May 12, 2021 8:10 pm

totally get what you are saying.

I like volatility of energy related stocks, and commodities in general, green or otherwise. definitely not a sector for those looking to buy and forget about them.

boring stocks that just chug along and make money, I typically sell them too early just out of lack of interest. I want some entertainment.
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by admin » Thu May 13, 2021 8:34 am

back to more local economic problems in chile,

so the government is offering more completely clueless solutions for small and medium businesses. exactly what small businesses need that are on the verge of collapsing: more debt.

https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/eco ... ento.shtml

It is soooo clueless, the only thing I can conclude is their goal is concentrate more economic power in the big companies, by intentionally killing off small business anyway they can.

one of the comments under the article called it "science fiction".
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Re: The Chile Economy, Social Crisis and Virus Impact

Post by tiagoabner » Thu May 13, 2021 9:59 am

admin wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 8:34 am
back to more local economic problems in chile,

so the government is offering more completely clueless solutions for small and medium businesses. exactly what small businesses need that are on the verge of collapsing: more debt.

https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/eco ... ento.shtml

It is soooo clueless, the only thing I can conclude is their goal is concentrate more economic power in the big companies, by intentionally killing off small business anyway they can.

one of the comments under the article called it "science fiction".
Yep, the Piñera administration shows over and over that they have no fucking clue about how to run a small business. If you need to get a loan with an interest rate that goes all the way up to 7.7% in order to keep your business open, you might as well close your doors instead.
I'm NOT your lawyer, accountant or financial planner. All information at this post should be considered for your entertainment only. Consult a professional before making a decision regarding whatever topic was mentioned in this post.

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