The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

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The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by admin » Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:13 am

It is a mess.

Now we need to figure out how much it is going to cost Chile.

Everything to do with the economic impact of this crisis, short, medium, long-term goes here.

Please see the "peso" thread for exchange rate discussion specifically.

viewtopic.php?f=44&t=17245
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by admin » Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:40 am

this article caught my attention. it is the mess at coastanera center mall. if these guys are in that much trouble, brace for impact, and the stats are starting to trickle in and firm up.

https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia ... er/904390/
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by tiagoabner » Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:07 am

Chilean economy is pretty much f*cked. USD $1 billion in direct damages and estimates are between 100 and 300 thousand job positions being closed. It turns out that widespread arson and sacking aren't good for the economy. What a surprise.

Consumer prices seem to be up. The official inflation number (IPC) for October was 0.8%, although I do suspect November's number will be even higher. It will take some time for prices to settle down, as everybody is figuring out the changes needed to their supply chains. Even companies that weren't affected by the protests still need to account for the protests, as they affect routes and their personnel.

Fun anecdote: I know from first-hand knowledge about two companies that were considering opening operations in Chile, and that will no longer move forward with their plans. Over 200 jobs paying over twice the minimum wage that won't materialize due to the current political unrest.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by fraggle092 » Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:22 am

Walmart Chile is alleging that the state has failed in its duty to maintain public order, and has lodged Recursos de Protection to restore Walmart's (yawn) constitutional right to conduct its business unhindered.

According to Economics Minister Briones, this is a positive indication that the country possesses the legal mechanisms to accommodate these demands. :?
.
walmart.jpg
.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by admin » Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:32 am

fraggle092 wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:22 am
Walmart Chile is alleging that the state has failed in its duty to maintain public order, and has lodged Recursos de Protection to restore Walmart's (yawn) constitutional right to conduct its business unhindered.

According to Economics Minister Briones, this is a positive indication that the country possesses the legal mechanisms to accommodate these demands. :?
.
walmart.jpg
they are not the first, and they won't be the last lawsuit related to the security situation.

probably an important lesson in 'be careful what you promise in a constitution'.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by Donnybrook » Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:33 am

I can never see those links from La Tercera as I think you have to be subscribed.

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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by fraggle092 » Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:39 am

Donnybrook wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:33 am
I can never see those links from La Tercera as I think you have to be subscribed.
Try a different browser, I can see them fine w/o a subscription.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by admin » Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:40 am

Donnybrook wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:33 am
I can never see those links from La Tercera as I think you have to be subscribed.
They have some strange system where if you access it from a cellphone (I think), it is not paywalled. I also use rather obscure privacy browser, that seems to break their attempt at paywalling a lot of the Chilean sites.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by Zenth » Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:35 pm

Any sovereign nation has the obligation to protect its borders, property, and inhabitants.
Everything else is optional.

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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by admin » Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:05 pm

Well, the big 10,000 pound gorilla in the room for retail, will be the 4th quarter holiday sales. If those do not materialize, there is lot more fallout coming from this mess than anyone is really talking about yet. Many of these stores will not be around to compare statistics come next year, and there employees too. It will hit the big ones hard, but some of these little stores that is the whole show. They squeak by breaking even through most of the year, and then make their money around the holiday season.

There was also an important point about those stores in the malls. Many of those employees get commission on sales. If there not open, the employees are taking a hit, even if they continue to get their regular check for while.

Still, no business is going to take a 50% plus hit on sales for more than a very short while, and not start looking around the room to see who can be let go, and who HAS TO BE let go. The cuts go from mild adjustments in overhead, to very deep, very fast.

300,000 unemployed, I think is just the tip of the iceberg, if you consider the first to go are small contractors, providers, service, etc; and most typically partime, more informal workers.

There was an interview for a temp agency, that said there hiring was down 70%. Most of the people they hire are young, low educated, warm body type positions.

We got hiring for the summer vacation season too. Tourism industry has already taken it hard so far, but as the season progresses, it will be much harder. Think about it. Say you run a tourism biz, are you going to staff up with extra workers and overhead for a high-season that may never come this year?

Many are looking at this as, 'better to be under staffed and profitable, than over staffed and loosing money'.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by fraggle092 » Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:31 pm

The non-protesters, the ones who struggle into work despite the chaos, will be the hardest hit. When they are laid off, the financial leeches, who add 30% interest to credit card purchases, won't cut them any slack on their debts.
More troubles and discontent to come.
What was Piñera thinking of, couldn't he see this coming? He's supposed to be a businessman, after all.
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Re: The Economic Impact of the Social Crisis

Post by thisisreallycomplicated » Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:15 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:39 am
Donnybrook wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:33 am
I can never see those links from La Tercera as I think you have to be subscribed.
Try a different browser, I can see them fine w/o a subscription.
I have the same problem, but a different browser worked. Thanks
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