Chile Political and Social Crisis 2019

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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Jamers41
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Re: Chile Political and Social Crisis 2019

Post by Jamers41 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:03 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:28 pm
Donnybrook wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:47 am
+1 For the whole post. Excellent, but don't see the point in needless repetition.

If they carry out the Plebiscite, the "Silent Majority" will vote "No", the way they voted for Piñera and not for "Chilezuela" Guillier in the last elections. Hopefully by that time this government will have got its act together in terms of public security.
Personally I disagree, I think the "Yes" vote for a new constitution is more likely to win, however I don't think that alone is reason enough to pull up stakes and jet out of the country, for better or worse, the main political parties are not going to just disappear and will likely have some sort of input into the new magna carta, so it's hard to imagine it being radically different from the current one.

Having said that, April is 5 months away, which in politics can be an eternity.

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Re: Chile Political and Social Crisis 2019

Post by Britkid » Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:59 pm

admin wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:14 pm
O.k., enough with the twitter links. I was willing to allow it as mildly educational examples of social media crap being spread.

Twitter is notoriously full of bullshit lies. none of it which is trustworthy, or is any type of reliable source of information.

come on, Trump uses it.
Disappointed by this decision. How can it be bullshit lies when it is a video provided without commentary?

This forum seems to me to be focused on the security situation and the crime to a greater extent, while many posters seem less interested in the other side of the equation: the protesters demands, inequality in Chile, and police brutality.

People here link to criminal activity as evidence that the protests are not peaceful but ignore the often (not always) clear delineation between those criminals and the peaceful protests that are constantly happening. There is no doubt that there are more peaceful protesters than criminals and violent protesters, maybe by 10:1.

People were talking earlier about how the police need to crack down on crime. The police abuses highlighted by Dosed Monkey are very relevant to that debate. It's clear that many abuses have happened and the "some abuses are inevitable in a chaotic situation" argument, which I myself believed in the first week, is losing a bit of steam as the number of videos of beatings of clearly subdued protesters increases, the evidence for abuses in captivity increases, the length of time increases with no convictions or dismissals of police, and further there are no denials to any of these videos.

The TV clearly has focused very little on these abuses throughout, and therefore, despite all its many faults (I hate twitter actually) we do need social media in addition to TV and other online sources to get the full picture.

We don't want to believe in systematic police abuse because it's a scary and unpleasant thought, so the instinct is to deny or ignore it, but you need to keep an open mind.

If you want the police to crack down on the crime, the government needs to give in more to the people's demands and fire and convict police officers and officials that have been say kicking subdued and arrested people in the head and abusing people in captivity, so that the police have more legitimacy in the first place. If the people can't be identified, then a number of heads need to roll at the top.

Now yes some of this criminal element don't give a shit about the protesters demands and are totally separate. I totally agree that some of the looters and vandals and arsonists are just scum. But there is also sometimes a mixing of different groups, the way the bad element uses mostly peaceful protesters as cover.

The strategy should be to announce some better measures quickly: better pensions, bigger minimum wage increase, confirm the temporary about 50% salary reduction to politicians as permanent for example. Then convict and fire some officers publicly (officers fired for abuses could get doxxed so they need to be given another place to stay without their identities known for a while). Then appoint a new police chief who promises to change the culture. If that happens, maybe some of this criminal element will melt away. But perhaps not. And that's when you move in hard, surgically, attacking clearly criminal groups that don't even have any peaceful protesters in them, and getting the best trained forces to do it.

I also want to see some police turning up and kicking ass against the looters and arsonists who are really fucking the country. But if they do it without first addressing the protesters demands, and without addressing the police abuses, and then when they do it it goes badly wrong - say they start shooting at people running away and it turns out one was a kid and another was a bystander - then things are going to get worse....

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fraggle092
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Re: Chile Political and Social Crisis 2019

Post by fraggle092 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:29 pm

Jamers41 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:03 pm

Personally I disagree, I think the "Yes" vote for a new constitution is more likely to win, however I don't think that alone is reason enough to pull up stakes and jet out of the country, for better or worse, the main political parties are not going to just disappear and will likely have some sort of input into the new magna carta, so it's hard to imagine it being radically different from the current one.

Having said that, April is 5 months away, which in politics can be an eternity.
Of course the existing crowd will continue. Whatever the outcome is, they will be part of it. The idea that they voluntarily relinquish their power (and all that money) was never on the cards. Even drafting a new Constitution would be a parliamentary affair, and it would take at least a couple of years, unless we have a Red Revolution in the meantime. But that's looking unlikely now, barring surprises.

As to the plebiscite itself, maybe William Hill will make a book on it so we can put our money where our mouths are.
(They have Trump as the odds-on favourite for next years' elections btw)
Bienvenidos a Chaqueteo City.

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41southchile
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Re: Chile Political and Social Crisis 2019

Post by 41southchile » Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:14 pm

Britkid wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:59 pm


The strategy should be to announce some better measures quickly: better pensions, bigger minimum wage increase, confirm the temporary about 50% salary reduction to politicians as permanent for example. Then convict and fire some officers publicly (officers fired for abuses could get doxxed so they need to be given another place to stay without their identities known for a while). Then appoint a new police chief who promises to change the culture. If that happens, maybe some of this criminal element will melt away. But perhaps not. And that's when you move in hard, surgically, attacking clearly criminal groups that don't even have any peaceful protesters in them, and getting the best trained forces to do it.

I or no one I know denies that absolutely of course the strategy should have been to meet more social demands first, but no , what did we get ? a bullshit promise for a referendum to change the constitution, in a process that was just a political stunt and did absolutely nothing to address the immediate demands .
A process that will be a political and social shit show dragging out for years, that will not do anything to fix the issues and problems in Chile now or in the future, quite the opposite in fact.

I actually find all the discussion here more relevant than showing twitter videos, most people here I would assume know the problems that need addressing in Chile (we all know them we are not not blind to them) but the process to get there to address those issues with all the different types of actors in Chilean society is very relevant too. Understanding all the dynamics and the big picture is needed.

Everyone knows smoking is bad they don't need people nagging at them to quit.
Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science. - Darwin

ctroxell
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Re: Chile Political and Social Crisis 2019

Post by ctroxell » Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:24 pm

Re: Chile Political and Social Crisis 2019
Post by Donnybrook » Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:47 am

Although the situation is disturbing I feel that has more to do with the damage being done to jobs and infrastructure. I have a close friend who is still a big fan of the military years and sees 1970 around the corner. She has been going mental on whatsapp. I imagine others are afraid of this happening. But this is not the Chile of 1970. A hugely greater number of people now have a stake in a stable country. People who are the first in the family to own a car, a house or wear a suit, whatever political party they vote for, they are not going to give up that hold on a better life.

I believe there is more than one thing going on. There are genuine grievances - made worse by an appalling absence of any knowledge about how the system they live in actually works - which need addressing. Personal debt is a huge problem and needs to be looked at. But there is also a move to grab political power outside the ballot box. People hoping to grab some power out of the chaos. Then you have the baddies, the ones who are comfortable in the world of theft and destruction. Many looted items are being distributed in areas where the drug dealers would like a passive neighbourhood in which to operate; old mafia trick. Then the teenagers, absolutely the loudest and most disruptive but is that any surprise to anyone who has ever had a teenager in the house?

All this badly reported, especially from outside Chile and on the internet. It is so much easier, and lazier, to just grab the genuine grievances and run with them. Apparently everyone likes a revolution unless it is in their own country. There is room for some really good, in depth reporting but no one is filling that space.

As for the police, can anyone name civil unrest which has happened across a country in multiple cities for over 40 days? Countries with democratically elected governments? It isn't their excesses which are surprising but their restraint.
Very thoughtful post. Thank you.

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Re: Chile Political and Social Crisis 2019

Post by admin » Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:46 am

regarding twitter, let me put it another way. I simply don't have the time and inclination to vet Twitter links and videos endlessly.
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Dosedmonkey
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Re: Chile Political and Social Crisis 2019

Post by Dosedmonkey » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:25 am

Donnybrook wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:47 am
As for the police, can anyone name civil unrest which has happened across a country in multiple cities for over 40 days? Countries with democratically elected governments? It isn't their excesses which are surprising but their restraint.
In the last 13 months I would say France which went on for about three or four months nationwide, then scaled down to just Paris. Then Hongkong, although a small nation, inside another nation now. Northern Ireland for the last 60 years, but particularly in the 70s and 80s. Not sure if Mexico back in the 50s would count. Bolivia has to be getting close in recent months. Venezuela over the last year. Syria started as this but went full civil war in a matter of a month.

There just the ones that spring to mind with out doing any research. I'm sure there is way way more. A lot of regional ones too, like Catalan.

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41southchile
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Re: Chile Political and Social Crisis 2019

Post by 41southchile » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:44 am

Piñera approval rating at 4.6 percent.
Surprised it's that much, that must be the margin of error in the survey
https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... dano.shtml
Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science. - Darwin

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Re: Chile Political and Social Crisis 2019

Post by 41southchile » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:59 am

Dosedmonkey wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:25 am
Donnybrook wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:47 am
As for the police, can anyone name civil unrest which has happened across a country in multiple cities for over 40 days? Countries with democratically elected governments? It isn't their excesses which are surprising but their restraint.
In the last 13 months I would say France which went on for about three or four months nationwide, then scaled down to just Paris. Then Hongkong, although a small nation, inside another nation now. Northern Ireland for the last 60 years, but particularly in the 70s and 80s. Not sure if Mexico back in the 50s would count. Bolivia has to be getting close in recent months. Venezuela over the last year. Syria started as this but went full civil war in a matter of a month.

There just the ones that spring to mind with out doing any research. I'm sure there is way way more. A lot of regional ones too, like Catalan.
Yeah fair enough, but I think was 40 continuous days was what Donnybrook meant, France were very civil and only came out on the weekends because you know, work and stuff. Hong Kong is not really a democracy neither was Syria like the democracy in Chile. Northern Ireland has it's own unique circumstances and is not comparable either, even Mexico back in the day dominated by PRI was not really comparable to Chile today, which I think was the point.
Multiple cities, 40 plus days and in a democratic elected govts, the only one that comes mildly close is France. You cant count a Catalonia separatist movement either, as comparable to the situation in Chile, just like Northern Ireland the situation is completely different.
Not sure why but I've noticed you seem to be confusing separatist and independence movements or resistance against an outside aggressor or other country as to what is happening in Chile, where are the similarities? apart from the violence? Chile is not Northern Ireland or Catalonia or Hong Kong or anything like those conflicts, you are comparing apples with oranges.
Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science. - Darwin

PXYC
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Re: Chile Political and Social Crisis 2019

Post by PXYC » Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:22 pm

Doesn't the current constitution already guarantees public education and public health? And yet those are one of the major demands from this estallido social.
I'm really confused on what could be the scope of this future constitution and its impacts on real life..

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Re: Chile Political and Social Crisis 2019

Post by admin » Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:54 pm

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Re: Chile Political and Social Crisis 2019

Post by admin » Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:55 pm

PXYC wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:22 pm
Doesn't the current constitution already guarantees public education and public health? And yet those are one of the major demands from this estallido social.
I'm really confused on what could be the scope of this future constitution and its impacts on real life..
welcome to the party.
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