Let us write a constitution for Chile.

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tiagoabner
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by tiagoabner » Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:06 am

The movement against a new constitution has done a survey, and it seems that they're losing by an 8% margin:

https://www.t13.cl/amp/noticia/plebisci ... 24-09-2020

So, maybe thinking about a new constitution may end up being something that will actually happen.
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41southchile
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by 41southchile » Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:13 am

tiagoabner wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:06 am
The movement against a new constitution has done a survey, and it seems that they're losing by an 8% margin:

https://www.t13.cl/amp/noticia/plebisci ... 24-09-2020

So, maybe thinking about a new constitution may end up being something that will actually happen.
Who did the survey?
I give surveys a grain of salt , since about 2016 I've found most political survey, elections or referendum, very unreliable 🤔
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tiagoabner
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by tiagoabner » Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:17 am

Per the news article, it was a survey agency hired by the Rechazo.
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41southchile
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by 41southchile » Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:24 am

tiagoabner wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:17 am
Per the news article, it was a survey agency hired by the Rechazo.
My own gut feeling is it will be pass, theres enough support for a change, always has been the whole way through tbh. As I say I have become very suspicious of surveys these days and their biasis, Ill just stick to my own biasis, dont need others, lol
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fraggle092
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by fraggle092 » Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:28 am

Something from not so long ago:
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encuestas.jpg
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by admin » Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:32 am

Una encuesta realizada por la empresa argentina Nunem y difundida por el comando del Rechazo

My sense would be that I would expect a larger margin, if it was going to pass at this point.

I also am highly suspicious of surveys, and what people will say on phone call vs what they do in the voting booth; especially with the associated violence the left has shouted down or attacked any supporters against the new constitution. That is aside from the question mark regarding who will go out to vote.
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Space Cat
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by Space Cat » Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:08 pm

tiagoabner wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:06 am
The movement against a new constitution has done a survey, and it seems that they're losing by an 8% margin.
That will happen only if all the Sipoapruebo memeing students will stay at home on the 25th. I've been following http://tresquintos.cl that combines all the available poll data and "Rechazo" has never reached even 30% there.

By the way, me and my wife got SERVEL registration letters last month, so we are going to vote too – thanks to the pandemic for the date change!

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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by alextrombone » Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:14 pm

I have a feeling Rechazo might sneak a victory here. It reminds of the Brexit vote in the U.K. Two extremely tribal sides fighting against each other, with one side (e.g. Apruebo, or Remain) being much more vocal and active on social media than the other side (Rechazo or Leave). There will be a lot of people voting rechazo who won’t actually admit they’re voting rechazo.

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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by Space Cat » Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:18 pm

alextrombone wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:14 pm
Two extremely tribal sides fighting against each other
This is not the case in Chile because Apruebo is strongly supported in all parts of society and Rechazo tends to correlate with age.
En resumen, quienes se inclinan por esta opción son, en promedio, hombres y mujeres de clase más bien acomodada (con un componente D/E igualmente relevante), más viejos y de derecha.
f1-6.png
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(Source)

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tiagoabner
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by tiagoabner » Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:24 pm

Space Cat wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:08 pm
tiagoabner wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:06 am
The movement against a new constitution has done a survey, and it seems that they're losing by an 8% margin.
That will happen only if all the Sipoapruebo memeing students will stay at home on the 25th. I've been following http://tresquintos.cl that combines all the available poll data and "Rechazo" has never reached even 30% there.

By the way, me and my wife got SERVEL registration letters last month, so we are going to vote too – thanks to the pandemic for the date change!
That was kind of the point: if "rechazo" has published a survey that shows them losing by 8%, and that's the most positive outcome they could find for propaganda purposes, then things may not be looking good for them. That is, as far as surveys can be trusted. Thanks for the link, though, I'll be keeping an eye out on it.
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alextrombone
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by alextrombone » Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:25 pm

Space Cat wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:18 pm
alextrombone wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:14 pm
Two extremely tribal sides fighting against each other
This is not the case in Chile because Apruebo is strongly supported in all parts of society and Rechazo tends to correlate with age.
En resumen, quienes se inclinan por esta opción son, en promedio, hombres y mujeres de clase más bien acomodada (con un componente D/E igualmente relevante), más viejos y de derecha.
(Source)
That’s kinda why it reminds me of the Brexit vote (the age thing)

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Space Cat
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by Space Cat » Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:27 pm

alextrombone wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:25 pm
That’s kinda why it reminds me of the Brexit vote.
The age correlation is where the similarities end. The article I linked compared it to Brexit and other big referendums in different countries and concludes that the Chilean case is very different from the usual 50/50 split in the society:
Por ejemplo, en un análisis sobre la composición del electorado del Brexit, Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (2020) plantean que el referéndum de 2016 generó un nivel de polarización afectiva, que escapa a las identificaciones partidarias y se relaciona con una serie de patrones identitarios (raza, edad, ubicación geográfica, ideología, entre otros).
And from the chart above you can see almost a half of the right-wing voters going for Apruebo.

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