Let us write a constitution for Chile.

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ghibli
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by ghibli » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:35 am

That's my worry as well, which is why I slightly lean toward a no vote. The current constitution could be amended with the first article being a statement of basic human rights. In other words, a forward looking statement. A more troubling basic problem is will people obey the laws that exist and will the courts enforce them? Which set of laws will people follow during the rewriting process - if there is one? Interesting times as they say. Lately I have been encountering a fair few people of what we might call the trades-people group. They are surprisingly clear in thinking that --- poisoning the environment is a bad idea.... that burning down buildings is a stupid way to get new schools... that being on time and truthful are worthwhile values. The stalwarts one might call them. I cannot say how large this group is - falling somewhere between the savage destructos and the shockingly self absorbed ignorant "rich people" -- I wonder how they will vote, but don't like to ask directly.

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41southchile
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by 41southchile » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:46 am

tiagoabner wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:10 am


I hope Chile doesn't get itself into a Brexit-like mess, where a pointless vote screws the country for the decades to come.
Yeah Brexit on steroids, the ignorance and those easily influenced with slogans are components certainly similar to Brexit. Brexit-like, with a Sth American flare of violent thugs hijacking the whole process.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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41southchile
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by 41southchile » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:52 am

So any predictions on results 🤔? I don't think its going to be as convincing as what people think. Which is bad too. Ive seen bs figures from dodgy sites like 85 percent apruebo.
I think its going to be closer.
60 to 40 in favor of change is what I guess.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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fraggle092
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by fraggle092 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:09 pm

41southchile wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:52 am
So any predictions on results 🤔? I don't think its going to be as convincing as what people think. Which is bad too. Ive seen bs figures from dodgy sites like 85 percent apruebo.
I think its going to be closer.
60 to 40 in favor of change is what I guess.
In a more rational, honest country I have no doubt that Rechazo would win. But in a country where 400-odd thousand people, including 35,000 government employees, fraudulently applied for, and received, a CLP $500.000 "hardship bonus", anything's possible. They just may get the government they deserve. As for polls, truth is the first casualty...
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eeuunikkeiexpat
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:16 pm

Any bets? I bet that rechazo will make a surprise win due to the silent majority who dare not reveal their real vote in casual conversation in addition to the continual onslaught of the apruebo leaning and gaslighting media and pollsters.
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fraggle092
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by fraggle092 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:39 pm

Something else to think about:
A Rechazo win may not make any difference if all sides have decided to go for the blank cheque.

That happened in Colombia some years ago when the majority voted against Amnesty for the FARC. The government ignored the plebiscite results. Another sham democracy, same as here.
Bienvenidos a Chaqueteo City.

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41southchile
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by 41southchile » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:22 pm

eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:16 pm
Any bets? I bet that rechazo will make a surprise win due to the silent majority who dare not reveal their real vote in casual conversation in addition to the continual onslaught of the apruebo leaning and gaslighting media and pollsters.
Interesting, 🤔 you could well be right. I'll send you up a cordero (papas if you dont eat meat) from the South, if you win the bet.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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41southchile
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by 41southchile » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:25 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:09 pm
41southchile wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:52 am
So any predictions on results 🤔? I don't think its going to be as convincing as what people think. Which is bad too. Ive seen bs figures from dodgy sites like 85 percent apruebo.
I think its going to be closer.
60 to 40 in favor of change is what I guess.
In a more rational, honest country I have no doubt that Rechazo would win. But in a country where 400-odd thousand people, including 35,000 government employees, fraudulently applied for, and received, a CLP $500.000 "hardship bonus", anything's possible. They just may get the government they deserve. As for polls, truth is the first casualty...
I don't know if its ignorance or dishonesty or a mix of both regarding the 400k taking 500k benefits dished out. People seem to think the government has big bags of money lying around ready to dish out and don't realise that bill will come due too.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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admin
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by admin » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:27 pm

I am not sure rechazo will win, but it will defintely be bigger than people think.

which will create a serious problem all the way through the process of electing the people to write it, and ultimately might get the new constution shut down at the approval vote.

I don't think a lot of chileans are thinking through the consequences of writing a new a constution. in two to three years,
there will likely be a whole lot of people sick of it or simply are not happy with what the proposed draft says.

so, say rechazo gets 40% now. we go forward with the writing. when it comes time to vote to approve the constution, It will not be that hard for them to pick-up some more support to reject it.

either that, or it means that the new constution draft is more right wing leaning than the current one.

only problem is, by that point billions of dollars will have been pissed away trying to write a new constution.
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alextrombone
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by alextrombone » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:30 pm

Here are some of the reasons I’ve heard for why people are voting “Apruebo”:

- The powers that companies and individuals have to control natural resources.
- The lack of a guarantee of quality education and healthcare.
- Lack of implementation of regulations protect the environment.
- Lack of regulation and protection of Chile’s coastline.
- The fact the constitution was created during a dictatorship (even though it had been amended various times, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to consider this a legitimate reason).
- Vague wording in the constitution on the protection and promotion of human rights.
- The promotion and protection of reproductive rights.

Obviously there’s a debate to be had, especially with the actual process of writing a new constitution. But, from what I’ve heard from Apruebo voters, there are some pretty solid reasons for wanting a new constitution, and the majority do legitimately care about the future of their country and don’t want to see it all burn down.

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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by admin » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:33 pm

oh, and what the morons do this weekend, will set the tone for the election next week. the approve guys might think twice if this gets ugly.
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eeuunikkeiexpat
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Re: Let us write a constitution for Chile.

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:55 pm

Exactly, it will be a "I'm tired of this shit vote". But watch out rich self-absorbed assholes, because rechazo does not mean there is no need for real and substantive change.
There are two ways to be fooled.

One is to believe what isn't true;

the other is to refuse to believe what is true.

- Søren Kierkegaard

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