State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by admin » Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:28 pm

I have an even more, and in many ways worse explanation, the frigen reports just suck and really are not all that committed to their jobs.

Adding to that, managment simply will not put up the money for coverage 24/7, and tends to drop off right at major shift-changes. which makes sense regarding labour laws. probably also not great for selling most advertising.

the most obvious thing for a reporter to do is grab handheld camera, and get in with the protesters, the cops, etc; but, there is suprisingly few "war correspondents" out on the front lines on any channel. what little there was, just got looped to death. 2 mins of footage, got an hour of air time.
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by hlf2888 » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:14 pm

Most likely those in control of the media are controlling the message.

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by mem » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:35 pm

I read this rundown of the France yellow jacket protests in this 1 year anniversary and I was surprised at how eerily parallel what happened there to what is happening here.. causes, reactions, what worked and what didnt work.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/11/15/euro ... index.html

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by Fugger » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:48 pm

frozen-north wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:32 am
Fugger wrote:
Space Cat wrote: WTF with the 110 years life expectancy? Pure incompetency and self-inflicted disaster.
I think neither.

The fact that mortality tables go up to 110 years, doesn't mean that the life expectancy is 110 years. In fact other countries go much higher, i.e. 120 to 140 years https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/ ... -anos.html
I don't see how the 110 is NOT life expectancy. It is the range of calculations being used, so it is being assumed it is within the range of possibility. Is it not? How it is used within the calculation is a different matter. And they even say in the article you linked to:
Maximum life span and life expectancy are different concepts. 110 is the maximum life span while the life expectancy is the probability weighted time a person is expected to life, the maximum life span is thus the upper bound of the probabilistic realization of individual life lengths.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expe ... _life_span
frozen-north wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:32 am
"Como la probabilidad de llegar a 110 años es tan, tan bajita, si nosotros acortáramos la tabla a 100 años, se produce sólo un leve aumento en la pensión",
So, obviously that number has a role in the calculations, and that number is life expectancy. And just because other countries are using 120 or 140 seems rather meaningless in the Chilean context. Why not 150 or 200 ?
I didn't argue that is doesn't play a role. Obviously it does. Having said that the difference between capping the table at 100 or 110 years is minuscule. I did the calculation of life expectancy for a 65 year old male capping the table either at 100 or 110 years. The difference (calculation based on 2014 table without aax adjustments for mortality improvements) is 0.02 year, i.e. 18.87 years when capped at 100 years and 18.89 years when capped at 110 years (see attachment 1)

I would argue that actuarial science is the same in Chile as in other countries, as such it is definitely relevant what other countries have done. In Chile it has been transparently documented which model was chosen (and why) for the calculation of the tail, so I'm not sure what you are arguing for ((see attachment 2).
frozen-north wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:32 am
It is well knows that over the past 120 years the world has seen consistent mortality improvement and Chile more so than most other countries.
Some comments regarding this one. One is that it is so vague that it can be misleading. Most of the improvements in mortality in the first half of the 20th century were mainly among the young, Second, I don't know what you mean that Chile has seen 'more so than most other countries'.
Mortality improvement is not constant across time and age cohorts. This paper (https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... _1970-2003) provides a very good overview of the mortality data in Chile. While infant mortality was massively reduced, the mortality improvements in the first half of the 20th century was not restricted to the young. See see attachment 3 and attachment 4 (the latter providing the annualised mortality improvement i.e. reduction of mortality rates, an improvement is this a negative number).

I got ahead of myself when I said mortality improvements in Chile were better than in most other countries. I don't have data easy accessible to proof this claim (which I belief to be correct). Would be definitely a worthwhile research project.
frozen-north wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:32 am
The article also says:
"En Chile, la probabilidad de una mujer de llegar a los 110 años es de 2 sobre 1.000, o sea 0,2% y en el de los hombres es de 0,01%.
How many people of 110 are there in Chile?
I don't know but let me provide you with the following calculation. There were in 2010 approx. 10 centenarian per 100'000 population (value for Argentina 8.7, Brazil 12.5). That would be 1800 centenarian. The survival rate of centenarian to become a super-centenarian is approx. 0.25%, there there should be 4-5 super-centenarian around.

Why are there not 0.01% x 18 million = 1800 super-centenarians? The current mortality tables are for today and as discussed mortality rates 110 year ago where much higher. Let me offer you the following calculation Chile's population in 1900 approx. 3 million x 0.01% x 0.96^110 (4% mortality improvement for 110 years) equals around 3-4 super-centenarians.
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by 41southchile » Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:29 pm

hlf2888 wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:14 pm
Most likely those in control of the media are controlling the message.
That would be the conclusion I came to in the last few weeks.
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by 41southchile » Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:31 pm

Britkid wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:20 pm
I think I have changed my mind about the TV. I think they did OK up until October 25th when stopped showing the huge 1 million or so people protest (which they showed extensively until dark). It's possible that this was done to maintain the calm since the police was trying to disperse the protest at that point. I was flicking through the channels at one point and in 5 minutes it went from 4-5 channels showing the protests live to none at all.

Since then I've noticed periodically the TV trying to promote a message of "we are back to normal now, the politicians are dealing with this" even though they are not making any substantial changes and this is basically a lie. Sometimes they do this by just not showing as much news and putting on other types of programs. At other times, for example the coverage of the constitution, they are trying to make it out like this is more of a solution to a path of peace than it really is. Last night there was no coverage of the protest in Plaza Italia when I flicked through the channels.

There does seem to be a whiff of collusion about it, and little effort to hide this. The most prosaic explanation for this would be that one channel watches what the others are doing and copies them, so they are not actually talking. The other is that the channels have made an honest judgement that a certain type of coverage would be best to create a more peaceful path for the country. Another is that the the probably upper middle class presenters have their own influence on the agenda and their own bias. Another is that the rich owners are making the coverage in their interests. Another is that the government are influencing the TV. I don't think any of these are good situations.

The funny thing is that the anti-TV vibe was more in the first week when it seemed to me less justified and is less common in what I've seen lately.
Exactly right , well put .
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by Dosedmonkey » Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:23 pm

A young guy died yesterday, but from stealing a car, being chased by Carabineros, hitting a electricity pole. Not sure if he was shot or not after that. But definitely not related to the protests, but they will twist it no doubt.

The high number of eye injuries is because shotguns are being used to fire rubber pellets that scatter. Even rubber bullets from pistols or rifles are horrendous for hitting eyes. Only the large round grenade size baton rounds are safe to hit people with as don't penetrate. The British army used rubber bullets on North Ireland disorder in the 70s and 80s and blinded hundreds too. Total PR disaster. Learn from history people!!

Those wrist rockets are a type of very powerful catapult, and I have fired ball bearings through ply wood easy with them before. The picture showing a catapult before is actually a Mangonel, and just the most common type of catapult, but a Ballista is equally a catapult.


The media, especially TV Noticias has always sucked in Chile. Particularly mega channel. I remember when the centre of Santiago was full of smoke and it took them a few hours to find where it was coming from... The huge huge garbage disposal in South of Santiago where half of the cities bomberos were failing to extinguish a fire that had propergated under all the garbage. I remember they'd rush to film a power transformer on fire because it was near the Mega office, but not report all the hundreds of real incidents every day. It was just all lazy filler, always. I think Chileans watch the news to actually make themselves feel better about Chile, not worse, half the news stories are usually about a street seller or empanadas and how patriotic we all are.

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by Space Cat » Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:45 pm

The director of the Santiago Stock Exchange resigns, says the economic elites and politicians are to blame for the crisis:

https://www.elmostrador.cl/dia/2019/11/ ... -santiago/

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by 41southchile » Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:57 pm

Space Cat wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:45 pm
The director of the Santiago Stock Exchange resigns, says the economic elites and politicians are to blame for the crisis:

https://www.elmostrador.cl/dia/2019/11/ ... -santiago/
Fair enough, probably right.
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by fraggle092 » Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:01 pm

Space Cat wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:45 pm
The director of the Santiago Stock Exchange resigns, says the economic elites and politicians are to blame for the crisis:

https://www.elmostrador.cl/dia/2019/11/ ... -santiago/
That's been true for years now. Only the deluded think that anything cooked up by Congress will seriously change things.
But as Chileans say, "es lo que hay" The alternatives are even worse.

I did suggest subcontracting Chile's administration out to the Swiss, or some other upright nation some years ago, as a joke....
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by Dosedmonkey » Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:37 pm

Chile's doomed. Footage of Carabineros arresting a boy. Then the girl trying to film it on her mobile gets blocked against fence, then she dodged out of it, she thinks she is safe videoing so gets too close, then they grab her and quickly abduct her in the van, thinking no one was watching. But all the apartments are watching and videoing. Total illegal abduction which will cause hundreds of thousands to doubt the Carabineros. I just lost hope for a good outcome. That is pure propoganda/reason for an insurgency. They crossed a major line.

https://twitter.com/phillip_molina/stat ... 45921?s=20

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by frozen-north » Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:18 pm

Dosedmonkey wrote:
The high number of eye injuries is because shotguns are being used to fire rubber pellets that scatter.
Rubber pellets made mainly of metal.

Balines usados por Carabineros: Estudio revela que solo un 20% de su composición es de goma

Esta investigación detalló que solo un 20% de la estructura de los balines corresponde a caucho (goma), lo que guardaría relación con el severo daño que estos elementos han causado a más de 200 personas que han sufrido heridas oculares.

... la muestra, que en este caso fueron dos proyectiles que “se habrían obtenido de pacientes afectados por impacto de dichos proyectiles durante las manifestaciones”.

https://www.mega.cl/noticias/nacional/2 ... ocial.html
Those wrist rockets are a type of very powerful catapult, and I have fired ball bearings through ply wood easy with them before.
At what distance? 20 metres? And so far, despite the previous messages, there is no evidence that they were using 'metal balls'.

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