You bring up a point that I had begun to comment on a couple of times and thought nah. Decentralizationadmin wrote: ↑Sat Nov 09, 2019 12:21 pmoh, please this is how this works in Chile, and it is just exactly how it works anywhere in the world.
The rich will simply isolate themselves from the poor. They do it everywhere from Beijing, to Bellair, to Martha's vineyard. In latin america, especially in the more dangerous countries, the "rich" part of the city turns in to a whole separate country. I hear, even as big a socialist mess as Venezuela is, the rich part of Caracas is working just fine.
In chile, for example, please take note that there has not been one major incident, or even significant protest, allowed in to Los Condes or any of the other rich nieghborhoods. Anytime the protesters have gotten close, suddenly the police or military were all over it.
What has been happening in Chile (since at least 2010 earthquake) in a slow drip, drip fashion for about 10+ years, is the rich and upper middle class have been either leaving Santiago outright, or at least establishing a second "vacation" home in other parts of chile. In particular southern chile. That is just going to accelerate.
For instance, the rapid growth of wealth concentration in Los lagos, is not an accident; neither is the consistent low unemployment in the region.
we had two or three airplanes a day 10 years ago. I think they are flying like 20+ direct flights to Santiago a day now; and it is not just tickets have gotten cheaper. we got at least three airlines flying.
We started 2019 with zero chilean relocation clients in our buisness, now I have kind of lost track of the number of internal, chilean, relocation clients we have acquired. That was before the protests started. Most, by the way, are wealthy doctors from the central region. fine with me, we need the specialist down here. I never really thought of that as a potential market for us. They found us.
the north east part of Santiago will become more exclusive. There will probably always be some rich or at least new rich there. prices will go up there, as people flee the instability and insecurity of the other parts of Santiago. kind of a shame, as there had been a bit of urban renewal in the works more towards dowtown. That is over with, probably for good.
much of the rest of Santiago will get ghettofied.
The rich, say top 10 or 20% of the country, they will abandon Santiago. Those that do not need to be at an office everyday; and eventually the offices and headquarters will follow them.
With them will go the power and influence. finally, we might start seeing real decentralization take hold. more money and government projects will get directed to the parts of chile they decide to move to.
so yea, in short, the poor are going to get screwed. the only question is how hard.
They will be abandoned to enjoy burning and looting the crumbling over stressed infrastructure of the cities.
I would be very surprised, if there is not some sort of political reform out of this that formalizes the decentralization of chile. either via a constitutional or simple legal reform, that gives significantly more financial and political autonomy to the regions.
The irony is, after over a 100 years of the regions complaining about the political and financial wealth of the country being concentrated in Santiago, they will finally get their wish; because that wealth and power is moving out of Santiago.
Chile is long overdue for a second santiago in the south. No other city comes close to approximating santiago on so many levels. Logistically chile geography most demands perhaps more than any other country in the entire world that needs to not be sucking at the teat of a single city. Many know Chile is long and narrow but they dont really grasp the scale of it all and how it affects distribution which is just the tip of that iceberg versus a square or circle shaped country with a central monolithic capital that even tries badly to be equidistant from all points. It's the sheer length of chile that is the kicker
Santiago is a single point of failure.
Whether its distribution logistics, political power concentration, or density of flaite circle jerks, or fill in the blank
A second city needs to arise in the south that can be a white collar hub on par(really on par in every way that counts on the good side) with Santiago. Ideally an existing city, somewhere close to between Puerto montt and Los Angeles any more north from LA and it's too close to Santiago. Any more south from Puerto montt and it's too far away to be practical. Also not close to the coast (again like santiago) and subject to coastal risks
At any rate, would definiatley be longterm, but is likely inevitable if the current trend of rich flight continues even if there isnt enough strategy to proactively grow a true southern Santiago but it ends up de facto.