State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

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41southchile
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by 41southchile » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:35 am

cali_chile48 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:18 am
The protest organizers certainly have some legitimate gripes, but they should come up with different ways of protesting that don't interrupt general commerce.....maybe they should take some lessons from Gandhi and King....sit-ins at city hall or regional offices, for example, perhaps calling for boycotts of specific products or businesses....but the Chilean way is to burn tires in the road. Really stupid sometimes.
They do have legitimate gripes but as with everything here not many people can comprehend the notion of ALL actions have consequences, or not sure if it's that or they are completely ignorant of their surroundings and how things are connected. So many are just oblivious and in their own little worlds. This movement is kind of paradoxical, it's like in theory they are all together, but at the same time it's all about the individual who is generally oblivious to so many things around them.
Peaceful protests like Ghandi or King require a level of understanding not generally found in your average tire burner in Chile, boycotts require solidarity and a greater level of understanding amongst everyone, as with many things here lack of education amongst other things means these protesters are not even close to those levels of strategy.
I am still trying to work out my theory on that one, so it's open for criticisms.
Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science. - Darwin

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eeuunikkeiexpat
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:39 am

Yesterday, after my wife saw me off at the Alameda bus terminal around 2:30 pm, she witnessed 14 wankers with sticks attacking Carabineros and also a fight between a vendor and a ladron. She said everyone is walking around with fear.

Seems in the initial days, the people were in solidarity and now with all the continuing non-stop disruption and violence are beginning to distrust and fear one another.
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by admin » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:53 am

well, the picture of the consequences is starting to get more clear.

as I predicted earlier in this thread,

who got screwed?

who is going to get an economics 101 lesson?

the poor

real estate prices in the highest risk areas are crashing, both where the protests have been the worse and where public transportation has been disrupted the most (poor and middle class nieghborhoods). remember, at the lowest end of the income scales, real estate is typicaly the largest chunk of family wealth.

https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia ... go/889750/

meanwhile, the the most conservative AFPs (holding bond and bond like instruments), are down 1 to 3% due to the increased country risk.

government is talking about a 1.8% to 2.2% growth for 2019 now; and guess who is going to pay for that?

The employment numbers will definitely start reflecting this by end of the year, and I bet most of it will be found in the poorest parts of the country that had the most protests. Remember, when a company gets in trouble, the first person fired is the janitor or receptionist. the last person fired is the boss. Owners don't get fired.

meanwhile, due to the peso / dollar move, increased bond risk, there is some speculation that interest rates have bottomed out and the central bank can no longer cut for effect as the cost for banks' to go to the market to finance those cuts is reversing.

so, yep, again, the poor, with the highest debt and risk profiles, are going to pay higher interest rates.
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cali_chile48
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by cali_chile48 » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:00 am

Question: Do the security forces (PDI) have the ability to read text messages, wassup, Facebook, etc?

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by admin » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 am

oh, almost forgot.

there is no way this does not get translated in to broad base increase in inflation. which could force the central bank to jack interest rates even more aggressively.

people seem to be under the mistaken impression that they can somehow avoid that by buying for example chilean food or whatever. absolutely everything is imported or effected by the dollar. That apple, on the local corner stand, run by the little old lady; yea, that used imported gas, etc to get there.

pretty much everything in chile is directly or indirectly linked to the dollar via imports.
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by admin » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 am

cali_chile48 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:00 am
Question: Do the security forces (PDI) have the ability to read text messages, wassup, Facebook, etc?
yep
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:03 am

If done on a cell, particularly Android.
There are two ways to be fooled.

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by Zenth » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:17 am

Most people who are not very wealthy list their home as their largest asset.

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41southchile
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by 41southchile » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:20 am

admin wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 am
cali_chile48 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:00 am
Question: Do the security forces (PDI) have the ability to read text messages, wassup, Facebook, etc?
yep
Isn't WhatsApp supposed to be encrypted or is that just bullshit? They still have to go through Facebook and get a warrant dont they? Wasn't there some controversy in Brazil not that long ago and Facebook wouldn't hand over the whatsapp records ? I dont imagine it would be a straight forward process unless, if it was say directly linked to a murder for example wouldbe more straightforward, general surveillance I doubt, knowing the big tech companies.
Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science. - Darwin

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eeuunikkeiexpat
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:29 am

For your viewing pleasure, tomorrow, Thursday 07 November at 5 pm, tune into 13, Mega, 24 Horas, CNNShhhiiile:

Screen Shot 2019-11-06 at 9.22.54 AM.jpg
There are two ways to be fooled.

One is to believe what isn't true;

the other is to refuse to believe what is true.

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by admin » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:30 am

41southchile wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:20 am
admin wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 am
cali_chile48 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:00 am
Question: Do the security forces (PDI) have the ability to read text messages, wassup, Facebook, etc?
yep
Isn't WhatsApp supposed to be encrypted or is that just bullshit? They still have to go through Facebook and get a warrant dont they? Wasn't there some controversy in Brazil not that long ago and Facebook wouldn't hand over the whatsapp records ? I dont imagine it would be a straight forward process unless, if it was say directly linked to a murder for example wouldbe more straightforward, general surveillance I doubt, knowing the big tech companies.
there is a mistaken belief that warrants are hard to get. they really are not, most anywhere.

As I mentioned earlier in this thread, we get court orders for private documents and records all the time in civil and family law cases, we just need the vaguest justification related to a case.

my father told me once, that in over 25 years as a prosecutor in the United states, the only time he ever had a judge deny the police a warrant, was when he told the judge to deny it. those were cases where the police submitted a warrant request, my father as state attorney was obligated to take it before a judge, but believed the bases for the warrant the police were requesting was b.s.

same thing happens here. the standard is really low.
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by lost gringo » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:39 am

Snowden is a good movie that may answer questions about what they can access.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3774114/?r ... f_=nv_sr_1
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