coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

National Crisis, Emergencies, and Natural Disasters in Chile; including the experiences of Chile Forum Members have shared in current and in past crisis, as they have assisted each other and Chile. Things will always go wrong. It is how you deal with it that counts, and that starts with information. When things go wrong, this is the place to come to exchange information about what is going on in Chile.
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nwdiver
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by nwdiver » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:36 pm

Thank you for doing this to date, everyone eventually suffers from Covid fatigue. I find the number of ventilators available to be the most interesting number, as it goes up the severity of ICU cases goes down.

As we say up here be kind, be calm and stay safe.......
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drunken days
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by drunken days » Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:33 pm

Enrolment of 3,000 vaccine volunteers begins in Chile in August. Those willing to join can see the requirements here:

https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... rios.shtml
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admin
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:48 pm

94,000 official deaths in Brazil, real numbers will probably be a lot bigger when the final count comes back in.

Argentina numbers are taking off too.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:49 pm

Chile:

1,762 new cases
99 deaths, 9,707 total deaths
17,810 active

24,600 test completed

568 ventilators
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by admin » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:54 pm

admin wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:02 pm
so I was trying to make some guestimate as to when this might end, based on data we have now vs. the early days. It was just too fragmented and inconsistent to make projections.

assuming we hold steady, with about 3,000 cases a day on average.

if we assume about x10 officially dignosed vs. infected, which has held up pretty well everywhere antibody sampling has been conducted. mas o menos.

with 18 million people in the country, we need at least 80% to be fairly certain of herd immunity, or 14,400,000 people.

343,592 have been officially diagnosed.

x10 infected but not dignosed

call it
3,500,000 have been infected

leaving about 10,900,000 yet to be infected.

at, 30,000 new infections per day

we have about 363 days to go. call it a year, to natural herd immunity reaches 80%

obviously, there are all sorts of assumptions there, that could be played with.

The big point I wanted make is to have a look at when herd immunity in chile might be achievable, and is it before a vaccine will likely be ready.

Seems it might be.

figure another 6 months, end of 2020, before a vaccine is approved. another 6 months to a year to produce, distribute, vaccinate everyone to herd immunity levels (80% of population). probably more that a year before it is widely available.

A vaccine might be helpful to finally snuff out the remainder of the virus from clusters popping up, or protecting the most high-risk, but given this conservative back of the napkin check, it looks like it not going to be very helpful even if ready relatively soon and it is effective.

In short, one way or the other, likely by july 2021 , this bug will have either fully burned itself out or at least is transmitted in such small numbers as to be of no real consequence in chile. perhaps some extra care for the extremely vulnerable is still required, but society at large should be back to normal in Chile.

I am however not going to try and extend that guestimate to other countries; but Chile should be done with this, with or without a vaccine by next year.
so, just for fun, I thought I would indulge in some speculation about a pet theory I have had about the nature of this virus and the nature of Chile.

basically, for the purposes of this, I will treat Santiago as "Santiago es Chile", and all there is.

my pet theory is that if they can control the virus in Santiago (central region), you can control the virus in Chile.

So, if we exclude most of the geography of Chile, and focus on just the central regions, the population of Chile that lives within say about 200 km of Santiago is mas o menos 9 million people.

If we assume, because of that population density, the vast majority of people that are or could be infected in chile are in that central region.

If you get to herd immunity there, transmission to other parts of the country becomes very manageable. Thus, we may only need to worry about herd immunity in Santiago.

so, treating Chile just as a population of 9 million, applying the same above calculations, Chile reaches something like herd immunity in around 3 months.

Again with localized flare ups, clusters, etc along the way.

So, Chile could, as early as say late November or December, without a vaccine, be reaching the end of the epidemic in Chile; or, at least the signs the virus is starting to reach the end.

I believe the signs of that happening will happen after another big spike for the 18th of September, and an even bigger one following the october election. the last big spike will show-up about 6 to 8 weeks after the October election, or about mid to late December.

The catch is, I believe, Chile would need to keep the restrictions in check through the summer, because that progress would all go out the window if half the country goes on vacation in the other half of the country. or, they start opening the boarders without a 14 day quarantine, etc.

If this is the case, January 1st will be like groundhog day. Does the virus stick its head up and see its shadow? If it does, then we will have another 6 months of covid restrictions.
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by Billhere » Tue Aug 04, 2020 6:23 am

I would agree with your assessment, and here in the UK we are threatened with a second wave coming at the end of the Summer holidays from September onwards. We are some months in front of Chile so this is what you might expect.

How severe it may be depends on how seriously people think it is now. Some are COVID fatigued, some don't seem to care, and many of our darker skinned immigrants seem oblivious to it all together. But a majority abide by the Governments instructions to wear masks in shops, on public transport, and remain indoors otherwise, except at weekends when the some of the population lose it completely and pack the beaches and beauty spots seemingly oblivious to the consequences.

We live in rural Berkshire where the rate per 100,000 is less than 1. At the other end of the county in a town with a high immigrant population the rate is 13.4. This is mild compared with towns in the Midlands and North, with medium to high Pakistani and Bangladeshi immigrant population. The rates there have varied, in a sample of six cities it is between 33.6 and 140.2 per 100,000 according to the latest figures. Funnily enough London comes way down the list but they seem to have grasped the implications and obey the instructuions.

Culture seems to have some say in how things progress, or not. Our friends and relation in Santiago have been in lockdown for weeks now, and are dismayed by the apparent lack of compliance by some of the population so you may get a spike soon, but it is not going to fade away.

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by tiagoabner » Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:12 pm

Here is a graph with data for countries close to Chile geographically, economically and in terms of population. Spain is shown as a reference, as they had an early spike, went down and now are going through a second wave. Data from: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

It seems that the quarantine/lockdown measures currently in effect are being effective. I only wish the government did a better job in terms of offering financial support in order for people to not go through such a hard time financially through this all.

PS. the one between Argentina and Mexico is Peru.
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41southchile
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:30 pm

tiagoabner wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:12 pm
Here is a graph with data for countries close to Chile geographically, economically and in terms of population. Spain is shown as a reference, as they had an early spike, went down and now are going through a second wave. Data from: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

It seems that the quarantine/lockdown measures currently in effect are being effective. I only wish the government did a better job in terms of offering financial support in order for people to not go through such a hard time financially through this all.

PS. the one between Argentina and Mexico is Peru.
What's done is done, with the politicos, we can't change that, now we have to face the consequences. An ineffective government that has appeared out of touch every step of the way since October last year during both crises will lead to what in election season 2021? and the result ?

That's where the fun will start, the way I see it we are basically just in a holding pattern till election season, where a populist like Izkia Siches (or someone else) will seek to nationalize everything like pensions and mining . Health system will become more government controlled and Isapres will be broken up.
This story hasn't even started yet. The 2020s are going to be a time of huge upheaval in Chile, the best we can hope for is that violence is kept to a minimum. Not that history is any indication of future events, but violence has beem used abundantly in the history of Chile. So, ....
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

Jamers41
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by Jamers41 » Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:16 pm

41southchile wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:30 pm
tiagoabner wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:12 pm
Here is a graph with data for countries close to Chile geographically, economically and in terms of population. Spain is shown as a reference, as they had an early spike, went down and now are going through a second wave. Data from: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

It seems that the quarantine/lockdown measures currently in effect are being effective. I only wish the government did a better job in terms of offering financial support in order for people to not go through such a hard time financially through this all.

PS. the one between Argentina and Mexico is Peru.
What's done is done, with the politicos, we can't change that, now we have to face the consequences. An ineffective government that has appeared out of touch every step of the way since October last year during both crises will lead to what in election season 2021? and the result ?

That's where the fun will start, the way I see it we are basically just in a holding pattern till election season, where a populist like Izkia Siches (or someone else) will seek to nationalize everything like pensions and mining . Health system will become more government controlled and Isapres will be broken up.
This story hasn't even started yet. The 2020s are going to be a time of huge upheaval in Chile, the best we can hope for is that violence is kept to a minimum. Not that history is any indication of future events, but violence has beem used abundantly in the history of Chile. So, ....
So smarter than average individuals such as the forumites here need to be sure to vote :wink:

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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by tiagoabner » Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:01 pm

There will be a eight comunas relaxing shutdown orders this week, one starting quarantine and a few new "cordón sanitarios". Punta Arenas will move back to more strict measures due to a 200% increase in cases. More info here:

https://www.t13.cl/noticia/nacional/cor ... 05-08-2020
I'm NOT your lawyer, accountant or financial planner. All information at this post should be considered for your entertainment only. Consult a professional before making a decision regarding whatever topic was mentioned in this post.

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41southchile
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Re: coronavirus (COVID-19) in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:46 pm

Jamers41 wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:16 pm
41southchile wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:30 pm
tiagoabner wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:12 pm
Here is a graph with data for countries close to Chile geographically, economically and in terms of population. Spain is shown as a reference, as they had an early spike, went down and now are going through a second wave. Data from: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

It seems that the quarantine/lockdown measures currently in effect are being effective. I only wish the government did a better job in terms of offering financial support in order for people to not go through such a hard time financially through this all.

PS. the one between Argentina and Mexico is Peru.
What's done is done, with the politicos, we can't change that, now we have to face the consequences. An ineffective government that has appeared out of touch every step of the way since October last year during both crises will lead to what in election season 2021? and the result ?

That's where the fun will start, the way I see it we are basically just in a holding pattern till election season, where a populist like Izkia Siches (or someone else) will seek to nationalize everything like pensions and mining . Health system will become more government controlled and Isapres will be broken up.
This story hasn't even started yet. The 2020s are going to be a time of huge upheaval in Chile, the best we can hope for is that violence is kept to a minimum. Not that history is any indication of future events, but violence has beem used abundantly in the history of Chile. So, ....
So smarter than average individuals such as the forumites here need to be sure to vote :wink:
Na, just any average individual really, anyone that informs themselves honestly will need to vote. Last two elections about 45 percent participation, and now everyone bitches and moans about the current crop of politicians.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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