Corona Virus!

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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:01 am

so lets see if my math is right here.

130 positive test, out of 3700 on board, or about 3.51% infected.

however, think last report (and they are being suspiciously vague about this), they had only tested like 290 people. about 44.82% of those tested positive.

what is striking about that last number, is it is almost exactly the same as that infection rate from that early study posted at the wuhan hospital (41%).

obviously there are all sorts of reasons for those numbers, but they seem to be fairly consistent now across various reports. about 3 to 4% across the general population where the virus is present, and about 40% among clusters of infected people.
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:05 am

again, I am just baffled as to why they are not testing the entire ship.

seems japan has also closed its ports to all cruise ships.
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:18 am

so china reported 97 new deaths in one day, 909 total, over 40,000 confirmed cases.

and the communist party seems to be really concerned about their international image:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... oronavirus
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:33 am

this case in Europe strikes me as slightly odd.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-51442314

guy from the UK contracts the virus in Singapore.

stops by a ski resort in france on his way home.

manages to infect at least 4 people there.

flies home.

now if you spend much time around ski resorts, you would know for the most part just the nature of the sport does not lend itself to a lot of close personal contact due to clothing, helmets, gloves, even just not stepping on eachothers boots is kind of a skill, etc. not to mention it is not much of a group sport. I can ski most of the day and not see my partner, let alone be in close contact beyond perhaps a lunch break. obviously, more details might be helpful.
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:17 am

here is an interview with the doctor from wuhan that wrote the earlier study about in hospital knfections:

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/death- ... han-doctor
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:27 am

south korea has now banned all cruise ships from docking.

fun / scary trivia fact:

The word "quarantine" comes from 17th century Italy, from ships being held offshore for forty days during the plagues.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarantine

I feel I should be rereadying edger allen poe's "mask of the red death" again.
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:36 am

so seems almost every on the ground report from china is confirming that 40,000 infected, and 907 dead, is not even remotely accurate. like by at least x100, if not more.

400,000 infected, and 9000 dead, would sound more realistic (if not a bit conservative ) given how fast cases have spread in other settings, various dueling computer models, lack of testing, etc.
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by mem » Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:50 am

admin wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:53 am
66 more people test positive on the cruise ship, and they still are not testing everyone. total now 130 people.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2040FG
We have been watching those videos of the husband and wife on the princess cruise ship. First video we saw it looked and sounded like a puff piece. All positive all optimism. Everything is going to be okay, smiles all around

Then each update video the smiles start to disappear, anxiety, and concern keeps growing.

I commented to my wife..."this almost feels like watching a found footage horror movie, ala Blair witch project".

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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:58 am

well, this is interesting online fight between a hedge fund manger and a Chinese official trying to control the international narrative.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... itter-feud

to illustrate just how extremely hard china is working to do this:

a few weeks ago, on a chilean talk show, they had a well known chilean doctor in spanish, assert that the virus could be transmitted by packages sent from china.

a few hours later, a Chinese official in Beijing, specifically made a point of refuting that Chilean doctor at an official press conference.

now, at the time I thought the Chilean doctor was being a bit alarmist; and sort of never even read the article about it until the Chinese official said something to make it a big deal. however, she did have a good point, when she sited some studies / cases of corna viruses surviving in extreme conditions for long periods of time. one was I believe recovered after many years in the vacume of outer space and exposure to radiation (believe it was the moon), after a technician in a clean room sneezed on a solar panel during construction. another was one recovered from an Egyptian tomb.

well, anyway, there was a report out of Germany that they believe this sort of strain can typically hang around surfaces for about 5 days on average, and up to 9 days.

I am sure that is a scientific debate for another day, but the fact that chinese central government is going so far as to monitor what is being said on a fairly obscure talk show, in chile, in Spanish, is rather creepy. I bet hardly a few hundred thousand chileans, probably less than 100,000 chileans were watching that show.
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by GringoVikingo » Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:31 am

312 Bangladeshis from China, have return home. 172 other waiting for returning home
Well what can go wrong!
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by 41southchile » Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:16 pm

admin wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:58 am
well, this is interesting online fight between a hedge fund manger and a Chinese official trying to control the international narrative.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... itter-feud

to illustrate just how extremely hard china is working to do this:

a few weeks ago, on a chilean talk show, they had a well known chilean doctor in spanish, assert that the virus could be transmitted by packages sent from china.

a few hours later, a Chinese official in Beijing, specifically made a point of refuting that Chilean doctor at an official press conference.

now, at the time I thought the Chilean doctor was being a bit alarmist; and sort of never even read the article about it until the Chinese official said something to make it a big deal. however, she did have a good point, when she sited some studies / cases of corna viruses surviving in extreme conditions for long periods of time. one was I believe recovered after many years in the vacume of outer space and exposure to radiation (believe it was the moon), after a technician in a clean room sneezed on a solar panel during construction. another was one recovered from an Egyptian tomb.

well, anyway, there was a report out of Germany that they believe this sort of strain can typically hang around surfaces for about 5 days on average, and up to 9 days.

I am sure that is a scientific debate for another day, but the fact that chinese central government is going so far as to monitor what is being said on a fairly obscure talk show, in chile, in Spanish, is rather creepy. I bet hardly a few hundred thousand chileans, probably less than 100,000 chileans were watching that show.
She probably wasn't the only one that had raised that possibility, well its certainly more than a few thousand Chileans now.
NO ONE, not even their own citizens anymore, trusts a word coming out the Chinese communist parties collective mouth piece .
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by nwdiver » Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:20 pm

The WHO has come to several conclusions, using this information Canada has not closed its border to Chinese nationals but I guess they have to swim to get here as flights to the mainland are all cancelled.......

Don’t know what you think of the WHO but here is the most informative lest alarmist information I have found...

https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... virus-2019
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