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Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Posted: Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:05 pm
by admin
well, here comes the price controls. election year, and macri probably wont win, but get ready for all sorts of things to happen so he can get elected again.

https://m.nasdaq.com/article/argentina- ... 0417-00654

54% inflation so far this year.

This should be an interesting year to watch the show. I am even planning a few trips over to Argentina to see some of it for myself.

My guess is the peso hits 50 to 60 pesos to the dollar by election time, over 100 pesos to the dollar by end of the year, regardless of who wins.

figure they can limp along in to 2021, before an outright default occurs.

forbes has a nice summary of where things stand:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/ ... f8402d356f

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Posted: Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:20 pm
by admin
and here is the status of the corruption charges against Christina. going nowhere fast.

http://batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/as ... ases.phtml

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Posted: Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:44 pm
by admin
this article has a more detailed list of the price freezes, and most of them are not good:

http://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentin ... tion.phtml

seems they are all pretty much designed to get macri reelected, using public funds, and little else.

the strange one that baffles me is the export tariffs, which there seems to be some lip service to in these changes. Argentina is begging for dollar loans from the IMF, and they still have huge tarrifs on exports?

most of these sound like classic latin American socialist populist playbook.

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Posted: Sat Apr 20, 2019 1:43 pm
by at46
admin wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:44 pm
this article has a more detailed list of the price freezes, and most of them are not good:

http://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentin ... tion.phtml

seems they are all pretty much designed to get macri reelected, using public funds, and little else.

the strange one that baffles me is the export tariffs, which there seems to be some lip service to in these changes. Argentina is begging for dollar loans from the IMF, and they still have huge tarrifs on exports?

most of these sound like classic latin American socialist populist playbook.
Wow, spending 9 billion USD till the end of the year on food and gas bills, that's nuts. He could have used the money to nationalize a couple of money-making industries that are still left there to create long-term income sources. But that would require the government bureaucrats to use their brains to run them, and ain't nobody got time for that.

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Posted: Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:23 am
by admin
yea, would not want an entire country going through mate withdrawals as they vote.

nationalized industry in Argentina?

yea, i am sure that will workout, for whatever politician and their family that get's to run / "own" it.

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Posted: Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:10 pm
by admin
some very subtle, but important points about what is the IMF money is being used for, and how buying pesos really amounts to an exit strategy for international investors from Argentina. Essentialy the IMF is making the same mistake as it did in 2001.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... es-2019-04

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Posted: Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:13 pm
by admin
the ponzi scheme or argentinean shuffle works like this.

s.s. argentina hits another iceberg

realizing the ship is sinking, they get a loan from the imf, and convince them it is best spent to stabilize the peso.

foriegn investors and rich argentinans exit the titanic on the IMF lifeboats by buying dollars temporarily kept afloat.

titanic sinks.

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Posted: Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:11 am
by at46
admin wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:13 pm
the ponzi scheme or argentinean shuffle works like this.

s.s. argentina hits another iceberg

realizing the ship is sinking, they get a loan from the imf, and convince them it is best spent to stabilize the peso.

foriegn investors and rich argentinans exit the titanic on the IMF lifeboats by buying dollars temporarily kept afloat.

titanic sinks.
It is kinda like that, imho, with the exception is that the IMF actually encourages spending its money on bear and chips, instead of project financing something that could become a foundation for the country's long-term financial stability. It's the same old playbook they used in many countries around the world.

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Posted: Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:56 am
by admin
woops almost missed a step.

rich argentinean's and foriegn investors come back with blowtorches to cut up the titanic for scrap metal.

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Posted: Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:31 pm
by ghibli
Next up: Ecuador. Who's next? Peru maybe? They haven't been screwed lately. Those vultures are always hungry.

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:35 am
by admin
well big grocery chains seem rather happy with the price fixing, not.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/internaciona ... 83309.html

as for the other countries in SA, only Venezuela is more screwed up.

the rest are a relatively stable mess:

Ecuador for the most part seems fine.

peru has a long list of corruption scandals going on, but otherwise the economy seems to be going the right way. politically self-inflicted wounds mostly.

colombia is one i am keeping an eye on. lots of internal and external moving parts there with the whole venezuela mess, while they are trying to get the economy going and implementa piece deal.

bolivia has an election coming soon, and think they are going to send morales back to his coca fields finaly. what follows, probably will not be good for stability.

brazil, is a mega question mark. as much as the financial press seems to want to pump brazil, almost nothing has changed.

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Posted: Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:17 pm
by admin
uuuu, that default train is leaving the station. just a question of when.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04- ... na-default

most the comments on zero hedge are pretty stupid or just russian bots. There was one though that made me chuckle to the effect, "Argentina has had more defaults than there has been leap years in my lifetime".